漫长经济衰退毫无起色 普京时代走向没落2

The new frugality is pushing private clinics into fierce competition. Over the past six months, a smattering of deals websites especially for private clinics have sprung up. On sites like Medbooking or DocDoc, which negotiate discounts with certain clinics, patients can find the lowest price for any given treatment in their city that day.

这种新出现的节俭正促使私立诊所之间展开激烈的竞争。过去6个月，一些针对私立诊所的交易网站应运而生。在Medbooking或DocDoc等网站（它们与某些诊所谈判价格折扣）上，患者可以找到所在城市当天某一治疗方案的最低价格。

Experts warn that such approaches will not be enough. Ms Maleva’s institute recently found that households were still struggling to adapt to the economic crisis and failing to balance their budgets.

专家们警告称，这些方法还不够。马列娃所在的研究所最近发现，俄罗斯家庭仍难以适应这场经济危机，家庭财务捉襟见肘。

“The kind of socio-economic development Russia has seen in the past decade and a half has not created any meaningful safety reserves,” Ms Maleva says.

马列娃表示：“过去15年俄罗斯实现的社会经济发展没有带来有意义的安全储备。”

The working poor

“穷忙族”

During Russia’s last economic downturn, a deep but short recession in 2009, the government cushioned the fallout with social support handouts. Now, as plummeting oil prices cut deeply into budget revenues and more than half of the country’s regions run deficits, there is not enough money for that.

在俄罗斯上一次经济低迷（2009年发生的严重但短暂的衰退）期间，俄罗斯政府通过发放社会救济减缓了危机造成的影响。如今，随着油价暴跌造成预算收入锐减、以及超过一半的地区运行财政赤字，政府没有足够的资金发放社会救济。

According to Russia’s Federal Statistics Agency, 14 per cent of the population lived below the official poverty line in 2015, up from 11 per cent in 2014, and the highest percentage since 2006. Sociologists from the Russian Academy of Sciences, however, believe the situation is worse. They estimate that the number of poor has doubled since 2013 to hit one-quarter of the population.

根据俄罗斯联邦统计局(Federal Statistics Agency)的数据，2015年有14%的人口生活在官方贫困线以下，高于2014年的11%，为自2006年以来最高。然而，俄罗斯科学院(Russian Academy of Sciences)的社会学家认为，实际情况更糟。他们估计，自2013年以来穷人数量翻了一番，达到总人口的四分之一。

Moreover, despite many years of economic growth, the country has failed to prepare its pension system for a rapidly ageing population. This year, the government raised pensions by 4 per cent to make up for rising consumer prices, but as the inflation rate was more than double that last month, real pension incomes are falling.

另外，尽管经历了多年的经济增长，但俄罗斯未能在养老金体系方面为快速老龄化的人口做好准备。今年，俄罗斯政府将养老金上调4%，以弥补消费物价上涨，但上月的通胀率是这个数字的两倍多，因此实际养老金收入正在下降。

Pensioners already have disproportionately low incomes and account for one-third of the population. That number is forecast to equal the size of the working-age population — which is shrinking by 1m a year — by 2030. Independent economists argue that as pensions are often a cornerstone of family income, up to half of the population is at threat of sliding into poverty.

养老金领取者的收入过低，而且这部分人占到总人口的三分之一。根据预测，到2030年，养老金领取者的人数将与工作年龄人口相当，后者每年缩减100万人。独立经济学家认为，由于养老金经常是家庭收入的基石，因此多达一半的人口面临陷入贫困的威胁。

Others warn that if the economy continues to stagnate for five years or longer, more of the gains of the Putin years will be lost, and Russian society may get closer to the mirror image of the 1990s with its social stress, endemic alcoholism and falling life expectancy.

还有一些人警告称，如果俄罗斯经济继续停滞5年或更久，普京时代曾经取得的社会收益将丧失更多；社会压力、普遍酗酒以及预期寿命下滑意味着，俄罗斯社会可能变得更接近上世纪90年代的样子。

For many, the threat of poverty can emerge even if they have a job. As Russia’s working population is shrinking, employers hold on to as many of their staff as they can even during crises, but they cut salaries, send workers on unpaid holidays, delay wage payments or hold off on social allowances.

对于很多人而言，即便有工作也可能面临贫困威胁。由于俄罗斯工作人口在缩减，甚至在危机期间，雇主也会留住尽可能多的员工，但它们会降低薪资、让员工停薪留职、延迟发放工资或拖欠社会保险费。

“Our people are being squeezed, and our entire region with them,” says Alexander Alexeenko, a retired truck driver from Ivanovo, a rural region east of Moscow whose fortunes have been deteriorating alongside the decline of its once huge textile plant. An estimated 70 per cent of the local working-age population is now employed in the capital, mostly in low-end service jobs.

伊凡诺弗(Ivanovo)是莫斯科以东的一个乡村地区，当地退休卡车司机亚历山大•亚力琴科(Alexander Alexeenko)表示：“我们的人民受到挤压，整个地区都在受苦。”随着其一度庞大的纺织厂陷入衰落，该地区的经济不断恶化。在当地劳动年龄人口当中，据估计有70%现在在莫斯科就业，大多在低端服务业岗位。

The 63-year-old Mr Alexeenko has gained some local notoriety by blasting the government for incompetent economic policies. He also called for Mr Putin’s resignation at a recent rally of truck drivers, organised to protest against an electronic road toll system run by a friend of the president.

63岁的亚力琴科因炮轰政府经济政策不称职而在当地有点小名气。他还在最近的一场卡车司机集会上呼吁普京辞职——这场集会的目的是抗议由普京的一位朋友执掌的电子道路收费系统。

According to VCIOM, public satisfaction with the economic and social policies of the government is at its lowest level since 2011. In January, 32 per cent of respondents said they might participate if there were protests over economic or social issues in their home town, the highest proportion measured by VCIOM during the Putin era. The numbers have since levelled off but are still higher than at any time since autumn 2011 — when Moscow saw mass demonstrations against Mr Putin.

VCIOM的民调显示，公众对普京政府的经济和社会政策的满意度处于2011年以来的最低水平。今年1月，32%的受访者表示，如果在家乡发生围绕经济或社会问题的抗议活动，他们可能会参与，这是该调查在普京时代的最高比例。自那以来数据有所企稳，但仍高于自2011年秋季以来的任何时期——当时莫斯科发生了反对普京的大规模示威活动。

In Togliatti, Yaroslav’s home town, the anger is palpable. A city of 712,000 people, 600 miles south-east of Moscow, it has been hit hard by the decline of the vast Lada car plant around which it was built. Sergei, a 40-year-old taxi driver, blames Mr Putin for the fact that his grocery shop went bankrupt a few years ago. “It’s some kind of plot of his,” he fumes. “I don’t believe Putin, and I don’t believe anyone in government. In fact, I’ll sell this country to anyone who wants it for 10 kopecks.”

在雅罗斯拉夫的家乡陶里亚蒂，愤怒清晰可见。陶里亚蒂人口71.2万，位于莫斯科东南方向600英里处，因当地庞大的拉达汽车厂的衰落而遭受重创——当年陶里亚蒂就是围绕拉达汽车厂建设起来的。40岁的出租车司机谢尔盖(Sergei)将数年前其杂货店破产归咎于普京。他生气地说道：“我不相信普京，我不相信政府的任何人。实际上，我会卖掉这个国家，谁想出价10戈比都可以拿走。”

Observers are, however, sceptical about the possibility of large-scale revolt. Mr Muslimov says he senses a wariness among Muscovites, with fewer showing an interest in politics.

然而，观察家们怀疑爆发大规模骚乱的可能性。诊所老板穆斯利莫夫表示，他觉得莫斯科人非常谨慎，对政治感兴趣的人较少。

Even those social segments and age groups that are generally more likely to protest are holding back.

即便那些通常更有可能举行抗议活动的社会阶层和年龄段人群也在保持克制。

To Mr Alexeenko’s exasperation, neither the truck drivers nor the Ivanovo proletariat nor the Moscow middle class are ready to transform their dissatisfaction into political action. “When Putin started, they all put great hopes into him and they continued to believe in him for a long time. Now nobody believes any more,” he says. “And yet, for the sake of so-called stability, people will put up with anything.”

让亚力琴科感到愤怒的是，无论是卡车司机、伊凡诺弗的无产阶级，还是莫斯科的中产阶层都不准备将自己的不满转变为政治行动。他说：“当普京上台的时候，他们全都寄予厚望，他们相信他很久。现在没人再相信他了。然而，为了所谓的稳定，大家准备忍受一切。”

Growing income gap

逐渐加大的收入差距

Mr Alexeenko, who calls himself a Communist and has been organising protests for more than 30 years, says his compatriots should follow the example of French farmers who pour milk into the streets to protest at the drop in prices for their produce. “But no. The people here, they bow, they buckle. I wouldn’t say they are afraid. I think they just don’t believe that they can change something,” he says.

亚力琴科自称是一位共产主义者，30多年来一直组织抗议活动。他说，俄罗斯人应该效仿法国农民，后者将牛奶倒在街道上以抗议农产品价格下跌。他说：“但是这里的人不愿这么做，他们卑躬屈膝。我不会说他们害怕，我认为他们只是不相信自己可以改变任何事。”

One factor is that the middle class, historically an agent of change in other societies, has barely grown in 16 years under Mr Putin. According to Ranepa data, it has been stable at about 20 per cent of Russian society since 2000.

一个因素是，中产阶层（历史上在其他社会是改革的推动者）在普京主政的16年间几乎没有壮大。RANEPA的数据显示，自2000年以来，中产阶层在俄罗斯社会所占的比例一直稳定在20%左右。

Moreover, despite the country’s overall wealth gains during the Putin years, the income gap has widened. The country’s Gini coefficient — a widely recognised measure of inequality — rose from 37 in 2000 to 41.6 in 2012, suggesting a less equal distribution of income, which sociologists believe would lessen the effect of political empowerment.

此外，尽管俄罗斯在普京时代的财富整体而言出现增长，但收入差距扩大。2012年，该国的基尼系数（广泛认可的衡量不平等程度的指标）从2000年的37升至41.6，表明收入分配更加不平等，社会学家相信这将降低政治赋权的效果。

Other forces vital to a vibrant economic future, such as scientists and multilingual talent, have left the country amid rising political pressures and a weaker rouble. According to the Levada Center, Russia’s only independent pollster, the most financially secure and best-educated are likely to emigrate.

对充满活力的经济未来至关重要的其他力量，比如科学家和多语人才，已经在政治压力日益加大和卢布贬值的背景下离开俄罗斯。俄罗斯唯一的独立民调机构——俄罗斯勒瓦达中心(Levada Center)的数据显示，财务上最安全且教育程度最高的俄罗斯人可能移民海外。

“Some people fear social unrest. What I fear more is social apathy, infantilism, indifference,” says Ms Maleva. “With a society like that, it will be even more difficult to lift ourselves out of crisis, and it will be impossible to make a new start.”

马列娃表示：“一些人担心社会动乱。我更担心的是社会冷漠、幼稚和漠不关心。在这样的社会里，我们更难摆脱危机，也不可能从头再来。”