准备迎接第二个特别世纪 Prepare for the dawn of a second special century

The thesis of Robert Gordon’s magisterial book The Rise and Fall of American Growth, stands in sharp contrast to the technological optimism that bubbles out of Silicon Valley. The argument is that the years from 1870 to 1970 were the “special century”. Someone born when Benjamin Disraeli was prime minister and who lived to see Edward Heath in Downing Street would have witnessed horse-drawn transport give way to cars and aircraft. Born when medical services were largely useless, she would have seen cures found for most infectious diseases and experienced the introduction of electric light, indoor plumbing and colour television.

罗伯特•戈登(Robert Gordon)权威著作《美国增长的起落》(The Rise and Fall of American Growth)的论点与硅谷迸发出的科技乐观主义形成鲜明对照。本书认为，1870年至1970年是一个“特别世纪”。在本杰明•迪斯雷利(Benjamin Disraeli)担任英国首相时出生、并在有生之年看到爱德华•希斯(Edward Heath)入主唐宁街的人，见证了马拉交通被汽车和飞机取代。出生于医疗服务基本无用时的她，见证了多数传染病治疗方法的发现，并经历了电灯、室内下水管道以及彩电的诞生。

The past 50 years, according to Professor Gordon, have been “dazzling but disappointing”. We are dazzled because our attention is focused on advances in entertainment, communications and information technology. The disappointment is partly statistical — productivity growth has slowed. And looking beyond the field of IT, he argues, there have been no advances in materials, fuel technologies or food production and distribution comparable to those of the special century.

戈登教授认为，过去50年让人“眼花缭乱，但令人失望”。我们之所以感到眼花缭乱是因为我们的注意力集中在娱乐、通信和信息技术(IT)的发展。失望在一定程度上是统计上的：生产率增速放缓。他认为，除了IT，原材料、燃料技术或食品生产以及分销都没有出现与“特别世纪”可比的进步。

Boeing’s first 747 flew in 1969, and today’s jumbo jets are recognisably similar. The great blockbuster drugs have, it seems, already been discovered. While US productivity enjoyed a spurt in the 1990s, as digital innovations transformed our lives, the special century is unlikely to be repeated. Given an ageing population and an inadequate educational system, a significant increase in American living standards should not be expected.

波音(Boeing)首架747飞机于1969年升空，今天的大型喷气式客机仍然与它类似。伟大的轰动性药物似乎已被发现完了。尽管随着数字创新改变我们的生活，美国生产率曾经在上世纪90年代出现井喷，但“特别世纪”不太可能重现。鉴于人口老龄化和教育体制不完善，预计美国的生活水平不会显著上升。

Progress in introducing robotics into service activities is “glacially slow”, observes Prof Gordon. Amazon employs product pickers; delivery drivers still mostly load and unload their trucks manually. Sceptical of driverless cars, he asks what commuters will actually do with the time they do not have to spend behind the wheel. His scepticism will no doubt have been compounded by a recent accident involving one of Google’s driverless cars.

戈登教授认为，将机器人引入服务业方面的进展“极度缓慢”。亚马逊(Amazon)仍聘用产品挑选师；送货司机多数仍手动装货和卸货。他对无人驾驶汽车持怀疑态度，他问道，如果通勤者不需要自己驾驶，那这段时间里他们究竟会做什么。最近谷歌(Google)一辆无人驾驶汽车卷入的事故肯定会加深他的疑虑。

Yet, if not much seems to have happened, it is perhaps because we see that much is yet to come. No great effort of imagination is required to visualise machines that unload casks of beer or stack supermarket shelves. And if we trust robots to undertake surgery, why should they not offer pedicures or cut hair as people become more expensive and machines cheaper? Perhaps the future of progress lies in the application of IT to things that do not at first sight have much to do with it.

然而，如果情况似乎没有发生很大的变化，那或许是因为我们认为未来将发生很大变化。我们不需要努力想象就能设想出机器卸下啤酒桶或把货物放到超市货架上的场景。如果我们信任机器人做手术，在人工更为昂贵而机器更为廉价之际，为什么不让机器人来提供足疗或理发服务？或许未来的进步在于将IT应用于那些乍一看与IT没有多大关系的事物。

Such opportunities are of two kinds. Computers can now replace human operatives in well-defined repetitive tasks. Examples include the computerised conveyancer, the robo-adviser as portfolio manager and the digital doctor. Many traditional middle-class occupations will be eliminated in this way.

这些机会有两种。电脑现在可以在定义明确的重复性工作中取代人类。例如，电脑化的产权转让律师、机器人顾问（如资产组合经理）和数字医生。很多传统的中产阶级职业将因此被淘汰。

The more subtle, and perhaps more profound, development is the capacity of digital processing to aid the discovery of things that will form the basis of new technologies. Gene sequencing and big data are likely to shape the future of medicine. Progress in battery technology is advancing by leaps and bounds thanks to the analytic capabilities in the hands of today’s researchers. If the world became wired in the “special century”, perhaps it will become wireless in the next.

更微妙而且或许更深远的发展是，数字处理能力将协助构成未来新技术基础的事物的发现。基因测序和大数据可能会改变药物的未来。得益于当今研究人员掌握的分析能力，电池技术的发展突飞猛进。如果说世界在“特别世纪”实现了有线连接，那么在下一个“特别世纪”世界或许将实现无线连接。

And do not underestimate the increasing speed at which innovations are adopted. Benjamin Franklin discovered electricity in 1752 and Richard Trevithick’s car, the Puffing Devil, took to the roads of Cornwall in 1801. But it was only towards the end of the special century that electricity and cars were available to most households. The first smartphone was sold in 2007 and today 1.5bn are in use.

不要低估创新得到采用的日益加快的速度。本杰明•富兰克林(Benjamin Franklin)在1752年发现了电，理查德•特里维西克(Richard Trevithick)制造的蒸汽机车Puffing Devil于1801年在康沃尔郡上路。但直到“特别世纪”快结束时，电和汽车才进入千家万户。而第一部智能手机于2007年上市，如今已有15亿用户。

The limits to productivity growth are set only by the limits to human inventiveness.

生产率增长的极限只取决于人类创造力的极限。