非洲经济的独特机遇 China's slowdown: an opportunity for Africa to address longstandin

The steady economic growth that Africa has enjoyed over the past decade is now waning. Global commodity prices, particularly oil, have weakened and China, Africa’s largest individual bilateral trading partner, has slowed considerably as it rebalances itself away from investment and growth. According to the IMF, a 1 percentage point decrease in China’s investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point decrease in Africa’s export growth rate. The depth of the China-Africa trade relationship explains why this month, the World Bank, in its annual Africa’s Pulse report, downgraded Africa’s growth projections from 4.6 per cent in 2014 to 3.7 per cent in 2015 – the lowest growth the region will have seen since the ripples of the global economic crisis hit it in 2009. A new period of slow growth demands new and creative responses from African leaders.

非洲过去十年享受的稳定经济增长现在开始减缓。全球大宗商品（尤其是石油）价格低迷，而中国这个非洲最大的单一双边贸易伙伴的经济大幅放缓——它正在转型摆脱投资拉动增长的模式。国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据显示，中国投资增长率每下降1个百分点，非洲出口增长率平均下降0.6个百分点。中非密切的贸易关系解释了，为何本月世界银行(World Bank)在其《非洲脉搏》(Africa’s Pulse)年度报告中将非洲增长预测从2014年的4.6%下调至2015年的3.7%——这是自2009年遭受全球经济危机余波冲击以来，该地区将会出现的最低增长率。非洲进入新的缓慢增长时期，这要求非洲领导人做出新的创造性回应。

While the commodity climate and China’s slowdown are certainly a challenge for African policymakers, they also present a unique opportunity. Relying on the beneficial economic climate that has fostered complacency with market inefficiencies is now no longer an option. Necessity will demand that African governments adapt to unfavourable global trends by squeezing greater productivity from the structures and systems that are already in place. East Africa is already quietly making strides in eliminating economic inefficiencies and the progress has much to teach the rest of the region.

尽管对非洲政策制定者来说，大宗商品环境和中国经济放缓肯定是种挑战，但它们也代表着独特的机遇。非洲曾经依赖有利的经济大环境，满足于市场的低效，但现在这种做法不再可行。非洲各国政府将不得不适应不利的全球趋势，从现有的结构和系统中挤压出更多的生产力。东非已经悄然在消除经济低效方面取得进展，它的成就值得其他非洲国家借鉴。

East African countries – Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi – have demonstrated over the past 24 months that attacking inefficiencies is not only possible, but yields rapid returns. Through the Northern Corridor Integration Project, Uganda, Rwanda and Kenya have addressed longstanding bottlenecks in transportation. Being landlocked, Rwanda and Uganda rely on Kenya’s Mombasa port for trade, and a plethora of border inefficiencies made cargo travel times extremely costly and uncompetitive. Through regular meetings of the presidents of the countries and a focusing of government attention, the countries were able to reduce the travel time of cargo trucks from Mombasa to Kampala, Uganda from 18 days to 4 days, and between Mombasa and Kigali, Rwanda from 21 days to only 5 days. This progress was achieved from no new investment in roads or rail, but rather through the targeted elimination of inefficiencies.

东非国家——卢旺达、肯尼亚、乌干达、坦桑尼亚和布隆迪——在过去24个月里显示了，解决效率低下问题不仅是可能的，而且很快就会见效。通过“北部走廊一体化项目”(Northern Corridor Integration Project)，乌干达、卢旺达和肯尼亚解决了长期的交通瓶颈问题。由于地处内陆，卢旺达和乌干达依赖肯尼亚的蒙巴萨港口开展贸易，边境效率过度低下导致货运时间长，成本极为昂贵且缺乏竞争力。通过几国总统定期会晤和政府重点关注，几国现在能够将从蒙巴萨到乌干达坎帕拉的货运时间从18天缩短至4天，将从蒙巴萨到卢旺达基加利的货运时间从21天缩短至5天。几国并未对公路或铁路进行任何新的投资，而是通过针对性的消除效率低下问题就取得了上述进步。

Another inspiring example is East Africa’s recent telecom reform policies. The East African Community (EAC) recognized that expensive roaming fees that applied when operating across borders were impeding trade, communication and commerce between countries and decided to take action. The governments of Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda saw internal barriers to free-flowing communication as an obstacle to deepening the common market and pressured Safaricom, Airtel, MTN and others to accept a “One-Network-Area” agreement, which became operational in January. After reducing the tariffs for calling other national networks by more than 60 per cent, roaming traffic among the EAC member countries immediately reached staggering numbers. The Communications Authority of Kenya reported that since the One-Network-Area’s establishment, Kenya’s incoming roaming traffic from Rwanda increased by 951 per cent, and Kenya’s outbound roaming traffic increased by 254 per cent, meaning more revenues for the telecom operators. Last week’s Northern Corridor Summit in Nairobi expanded the One-Network-Area to include data, to deepen the impact.

另一个鼓舞人心的例子是东非最近的电信改革政策。东非共同体(East African Community)意识到，跨境运营时昂贵的漫游费阻碍了国家间的贸易、通信和商务，并决定就此采取措施。肯尼亚、乌干达和卢旺达政府将阻碍自由通信的内部壁垒视为深化共同市场的障碍，并对Safaricom、Airtel、MTN以及其他电信运营商施加压力，要求它们接受今年1月生效的单一网络区域(One-Network-Area)协议。在将拨打国外网络的电话费率降低逾60%之后，东非共同体成员国之间的漫游量立即达到惊人的数字。肯尼亚通信管理局报告称，自建立单一网络区域以来，卢旺达打入肯尼亚的电话漫游量增长951%，肯尼亚打向国外的电话漫游量增长254%，这意味着电信运营商的收入增加。近期在内罗毕召开的“北部走廊峰会”将单一网络区域扩大至包括数据在内，以深化影响。

Through political will, mutual cooperation and strong execution, East African countries have unleashed hidden value. Speaking of these efforts, Rwandan President Paul Kagame said: “We have found that we have the power to drive growth with what we already have on the ground in East Africa. The results not only help attract new investment partners, but more importantly provide the momentum required to tackle even bigger challenges together in the years ahead.”

通过政治意愿、通力协作和强力执行，东非国家释放出了隐藏的价值。卢旺达总统保罗愠加梅(Paul Kagame)在谈到这些努力时表示：“我们发现，我们有力量凭借东非已有的资源推动增长。结果不仅有助于吸引新的投资伙伴，而且更重要的是提供共同解决未来几年更大规模挑战所需的动能。”

Seeing the progress being made, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo have joined the Northern Corridor Integration Project.

看到取得的进步，埃塞俄比亚和刚果民主共和国加入了北部走廊一体化项目。

In the face of slowing external investment and the long-term timeframe of most infrastructure projects, short-term productivity gains can be unlocked by attacking economic inefficiencies with well thought-out and implemented collective solutions. If the rest of the continent follows East Africa’s example, either by initiative or by necessity, China’s slowdown could provide an opportunity to address longstanding issues that have been holding many African countries back from their full economic potential.

在外部投资放缓和大多数基础设施项目时间周期过长的情况下，可以通过深思熟虑且执行良好的集体措施解决经济效率低下问题，从而提高短期生产力。如果非洲大陆其他国家效仿东非（无论是主动还是被动），中国经济放缓可能为解决非洲长期存在的问题提供机会，这些问题过去一直妨碍许多非洲国家充分释放经济潜力。