特朗普的经济谬论 what Donald Trump gets wrong about China and US jobs

Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has built his presidential campaign on one main economic pillar: that the US economy — and its job market — has been decimated by competition from abroad and particularly an unfair trading relationship with China over the past 15 years. America has stopped “winning”, the businessman argues.

共和党总统竞选领跑者唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)的竞选活动基于一根主要的经济支柱：过去15年，来自海外的竞争，尤其是与中国的不公平的贸易关系，令美国经济及其就业市场受到严重削弱。这位商人声称，美国已不再是“赢家”。

It is a message that is calculated to target the blue collar voters who have borne the brunt of the impact on jobs and industry that came with the emergence of China as a trading superpower.

这条信息是有意向蓝领选民发出的。随着中国成为贸易超级大国，美国的就业及工业都受到影响，首当其冲的便是蓝领群体。

But it is also an argument that looks increasingly out of date and at odds with the realities of the global economy and globalisation.

但这种论调似乎也越来越过时，而且不符合全球经济与全球化的现实。

"We’re losing now over $500bn a year in terms of imbalance with China."

“我们现在一年在对华贸易逆差上要损失5000多亿美元。”

Mr Trump is right that the US now runs a significant trade deficit with China, as it does with the world. In fact, the US last ran a trade surplus in 1975.

特朗普说得对，美国现在对中国贸易逆差显著——正如美国对全世界的贸易逆差一样。事实上，美国上一次出现贸易顺差还是在1975年。

But increasingly trade economists argue that does not matter as much as it once did. Many believe it is the wrong measure of a country’s economy and that a trade deficit can actually be a sign of strength in an economy as it effectively shows consumers have the economic power and confidence to buy More goods than they sell.

但越来越多的贸易经济学家认为这个问题已经不像以前那么重要了。许多人认为以贸易逆差衡量一国之经济并不正确，而且贸易逆差实际上是经济实力的标志，因为它实际上显示出消费者有经济实力和信心去购买比本国对外销售的商品更多的商品。

With supply chains having gone global and many manufactured products now assembled from parts drawn from many different countries the real question is who is drawing the most value from trade, as work done by the OECD and WTO has shown.

正如经合组织(OECD)和世贸组织(WTO)的研究显示的，供应链已经变得全球化，现在许多制造品都是用来自多个国家的零件组装的，所以真正的问题是：谁从贸易中获利最多？

Services — ranging from financial services to embedded ones in your car such as your GPS or music service — also form an increasingly significant part of global trade. They are arguably the future. And in services the US has not had a trade deficit since 1970.

服务业也构成了全球贸易日益重要的一部分，其范围大到金融服务，小到车内应用，比如GPS或音乐服务。可以说服务业代表着未来。而在服务业方面，美国自1970年以来没出现过一次贸易逆差。

“We’re losing our jobs. We’re losing our base. We’re losing our manufacturing. We’re losing everything.”

“我们失去了就业机会。我们失去了基础。我们失去了制造业。我们失去了一切。”

It is undeniable that US manufacturing does not employ as many people as it once did. But the number of manufacturing employees in the US peaked in 1979 when China was a long way from being an economic superpower. In fact, most economists argue that technology and the productivity revolution that came with it have in recent decades been as big a factor in US manufacturing job losses as globalisation or China. Plus the US has become a more sophisticated economy since the 1970s. Two sectors alone — health and education — have since 1979 created more than twice as many jobs as have been lost in manufacturing.

不可否认美国制造业雇佣的人不如以前那么多。但美国制造业就业人数在1979年达到顶峰时，中国离经济大国还差得很远。事实上，大多数经济学家认为，近几十年来，对于美国制造业工作岗位的流失，技术创新以及随之而来的生产力革命是与全球化或中国崛起同等重要的原因。而且自1970年代以来，美国经济已经变得更加复杂，仅卫生和教育这两块1979年以来所创造的就业机会就是制造业失去的两倍以上。

“It’s not going to happen with me. We’re going to keep our businesses here.”

“我不会让这种事发生的。我们要把我们的生意留在美国。”

There is no doubt that the US has seen many of its manufacturing jobs move to China as that country has emerged as a trade powerhouse. Economist David Autor and his co-authors have in recent years documented what they say are the 2m-2.4m manufacturing and associated US jobs lost to competition with China.

毫无疑问，随着中国成为一个贸易强国，美国制造业的许多就业机会都转移到了中国。经济学家戴维奥托尔(David Autor)与其合著者近年来写道，在中国的竞争下，美国流失了200万到240万个制造业及相关工作岗位。

That has been a devastating blow to many blue collar communities in the US and is unrivalled as a shock in modern economic history, Mr Autor says.

奥托尔说，这对美国许多蓝领群体造成了毁灭性打击，严重程度在现代经济史上是绝无仅有的。

But it is also largely in the past. In recent years a new trend has been emerging. Thanks to rising costs in China, lower energy prices, technological advances and the simple size of the US market both domestic and foreign companies have begun investing more heavily in US manufacturing facilities. These days it is Chinese heavy industry where the job losses are happening.

但这基本也是过去的事。近年来已出现一种新的趋势，由于中国制造业成本上升，再加上能源价格下降、技术进步以及美国市场的庞大规模，美国国内外企业都开始加大对美国制造业设施的投资。现阶段，正在进行裁员的其实是中国的重工业。

According to the non-profit Reshoring Initiative, which collects data on companies bringing jobs back to the US, foreign direct investment and reshoring have accounted for more than 200,000 new jobs in the US in the past five years. According to Harry Moser, the group’s founder, in recent years the number of jobs created by reshoring has begun to outpace the number of jobs being sent overseas. And to many that looks like the beginning of a longer-term trend.

根据非盈利组织Reshoring Initiative收集的将工作机会带回美国的企业的数据，过去5年外国直接投资和产业回流为美国创造了超过20万个新增岗位。该组织创始人哈利莫泽(Harry Moser)表示，近年来产业回流所创造就业岗位数量已开始超过流失到海外的工作数量。而且许多人认为这是个长期趋势的开端。

China is also an important export market for the US and the number of jobs associated with exports to China has been rising steadily. In fact, according to the commerce department exports to China now support almost 1m jobs in the US and they have been the fastest growing of any major trading partner with more than 350,000 new jobs supported by exports to China between 2009 and 2014.

中国也是美国的一个重要出口市场，对华出口相关就业人数一直在稳步上升。事实上，根据美国商务部的数据，对华出口现在为美国提供了近100万就业机会，而且在美国主要贸易伙伴中一直增长最快，2009年到2014年间，对华出口提供了超过35万个新增岗位。

“Now I’m going to get consensus from Congress and we’re going to tax you . . . So stay where you are [in Mexico] or build in the United States.”

“我现在要取得国会共识，我们要向你们征税……所以要么留在那儿（墨西哥），要么好好建设美国。”

One of the biggest corporate targets of Mr Trump’s stump speeches is Carrier, the air conditioning manufacturer. It announced earlier this year that it was moving 1,400 jobs from Indiana to Mexico as part of an effort to remain competitive and drew widespread public scorn when a video of the announcement to factory workers went viral.

特朗普政治演说针对的最大企业目标之一就是空调制造商开利(Carrier)。今年早些时候该公司宣布，为保持竞争力，要将印第安纳州的1400个工作岗位转移到墨西哥。该公司向工厂员工宣布此项决定的视频在网上疯传，招致公众一片嘘声。

No one wants to lose their job. But it is worth putting the Carrier job losses in perspective. They amount to 0.3 per cent of the 520,000 people working in manufacturing in Indiana in January of this year.

没人想失去工作，但应从更大的视角看待开利裁员事件。截至今年1月，印第安纳州制造业共有52万名工人，开利裁员人数仅占其中0.3%。

Indiana, like many rust belt states, was hit hard by the 2008 crisis and recession. But since 2010 it has also added almost 100,000 manufacturing jobs.

像许多“锈带”州一样，印第安纳州也受到2008年危机和经济衰退的重创。但自2010年以来，该州已增加了近10万个制造业岗位。