资本外流引发中国经济牛熊之辩 Capital outflows reignite debate between China bulls and bears

China’s foreign exchange reserves have dropped for four straight quarters, leading to a fresh round of warnings about capital outflows.

中国外汇储备连续四个季度出现下降，引发新一轮关于资本外流的警告。

Interpreting capital flows has long been a favourite parlour game for Chinese economy watchers. An analyst’s view on “hot money” outflows is often an indication of his or her broader stance towards the world's largest economy.

对于关注中国经济的观察人士来说，解读资本流动一直是他们最喜欢的猜谜游戏。一名分析师对于“热钱”流出的看法，往往说明了他/她对全球第二大经济体的整体看法。

For those who believe China’s economic slowdown is worsening and risks from spiralling debt and wasteful investment are propelling the country toward a financial crisis, the spectre of capital flight lurks behind each new data point. They view capital outflows as a sign of waning confidence in China, and they warn that outflows will drain liquidity from the domestic economy, making it harder for companies and local governments to raise funds.

对那些认为经济增长放缓加剧，同时来自债务负担加重和投资浪费的风险正推动中国滑向金融危机的人来说，每一个新的数据点背后都隐藏着资本外逃的幽灵。在他们看来，资本外流是人们对中国信心减弱的标志，他们警告称，资本外流将从国内经济抽走流动性，加大企业和地方政府的融资难度。

For more bullish analysts, moderate capital outflows are a sign that China is liberalising capital controls and abandoning its mercantilist obsession with accumulating foreign reserves. They believe that domestic liquidity concerns are unwarranted, since the People's Bank of China has plenty of new mechanisms to expand the money supply to replace the liquidity once created by foreign capital inflows.

对那些比较乐观的分析师来说，适度资本外流表明中国在放宽资本管制，放弃痴迷于积累外汇储备的重商主义。他们认为，没有必要为中国国内的流动性担忧，因为中国央行(PBoC)有很多新的机制可以扩大货币供应量，取代一度由外资流入创造的流动性。

Now, with the Federal Reserve preparing to raise interest rates and the Chinese stock market suffering big losses, capital flow trends have taken on even greater importance. Higher US rates are likely to draw capital out of China and other emerging markets, which could place even greater downward pressure on Chinese share prices.

现在，随着美联储(Federal Reserve)准备提高利率，随着中国股市出现大幅下跌，资本流动趋势显得愈发重要。美国利率上升可能从中国等新兴市场吸走资金，这可能给中国股价带来更大的下行压力。

“The trend of rising outflows reflects policy measures to facilitate outward investments and the lack of stable domestic investment opportunities, with an additional short-run boost in outflows due to stock price volatility and concerns about growth prospects,” said Eswar Prasad, former head of the China division at the IMF, in a nod to both the bullish and bearish views.

“资本流出增加的趋势，反映了放开对外投资的政策措施，也反映了国内缺乏稳定的投资机会。股价波动和对经济增长前景的担忧也是助长流出的短期理由，”IMF中国部前负责人埃斯瓦尔渠拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示，他的言论综合了乐观和悲观两个阵营的观点。

After hitting an all-time high of $3.99tn at the end of June 2014, reserves have fallen by $299bn. Analysts broadly agree that China has experienced capital outflows on an unprecedented scale. But they disagree about their size, causes, and the risk to the economy.

中国外汇储备在2014年6月底触及3.99万亿美元的史上最高峰之后，已经减少了2990亿美元。分析师们大多同意，中国经历了规模空前的资本流出。但他们对于资本流出的规模、原因及其对经济构成的风险各执己见。

Goldman Sachs analysts led by New York-based chief foreign exchange strategist Robin Brooks raised the alarm with their estimate that net capital outflows in the second quarter alone totalled about $200bn. “Capital outflows have become very sizeable and now eclipse anything seen in the recent past,” Mr Brooks wrote.

以常驻纽约的首席外汇策略师罗宾布鲁克斯(Robin Brooks)为首的高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师拉响了警报，他们估计，仅第二季度的净资本流出总额就达到大约2000亿美元。“资本外流的规模已变得非常可观，现在已超过近年任何时候，”布鲁克斯写道。

JPMorgan has also furrowed its brow at China’s capital flow data. Strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in London estimate capital outflows amounted to $520bn combined over the past five quarters. “The current capital outflow episode in China is a more sustained and severe episode relative to those seen in the past,” they wrote.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)也对中国的资本流动数据感到悲观。以常驻伦敦的尼可拉斯堠尼吉左格鲁(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)为首的几名策略师估计，过去五个季度的资本流出总额达到5200亿美元。“相对于以往的资本外流，中国此轮资本外流更持久和严重，”他们写道。

Yet several China-based economists caution that Goldman and JPMorgan use estimates that fail to account for subtler factors. In a report published several days after Mr Panigirtzoglou’s, JPMorgan’s own chief China economist, Zhu Haibin, obliquely contradicted his colleague’s estimate by citing several reasons that made him believe that the estimates were inflated.

然而，多名中国经济学家告诫称，高盛和摩根大通所用的估计，没有考虑到一些比较细微的因素。在潘尼吉左格鲁的报告发表几天后，摩根大通的首席中国经济学家朱海斌婉转地反驳了同事们的估计，他提出了几条理由，以证明同事们的估算数据偏高。

One is a shift in China’s foreign exchange holdings between the central bank and the private sector. Until recently, the PBoC held almost all foreign exchange within China as official reserves, while banks, companies, and households held little.

理由之一是中国外汇储备在央行和私营部门之间的转移。直到不久以前，中国央行持有中国几乎所有外汇作为官方储备，而银行、企业和家庭持有极少外汇。

This was due largely to the central bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market. At its peak, the PBoC purchased hundreds of millions of dollars a month in order to restrain renminbi appreciation. Chinese banks and companies, for their part, were happy to fob off their dollars on to the PBoC, since they stood to profit from the slow but steady renminbi appreciation between 2005 and 2013.

这在很大程度上是由于央行干预汇市。在干预力度最大的时期，央行为了抑制人民币升值每月买入数亿美元。而中国的银行和企业乐意把美元交给央行，因为在2005年至2013年期间他们获利于缓慢但稳定的人民币升值。

That changed last year, when the renminbi suffered its first significant full-year depreciation in more than 20 years. Now many Chinese exporters who receive payments in dollars simply hold them, rather than buying local currency. Though these dollars no longer swell the central bank’s coffers, the money remains inside China and so should not be viewed as “outflows”, economists say.

这种情况在去年发生变化；去年人民币出现逾20年来首次显著的全年贬值。如今，很多收到美元付款的中国出口企业选择持有美元，而不是兑换成人民币。经济学家们表示，虽然这些美元不再扩大央行的金库，但这笔钱仍然在中国境内，因此不应被视为“流出”。

Mr Zhu estimates that “corporate balance sheet adjustment” explains $205bn in apparent capital outflow over the past four quarters.

朱海斌估计，“企业资产负债表调整”可以解释过去四个季度貌似的2050亿美元资本流出。

“The central bank aims to shift the FX asset holding into the non-government sector. In that sense, the corporate balance sheet adjustment is a desirable outcome for policymakers,” Mr Zhu wrote.

“央行力求将外汇资产转移到非政府部门。从这个意义上说，企业的资产负债表调整对政策制定者来说是一个可取的结果，”朱海斌写道。

Economists expect mild capital outflows from China to continue, but most analysts do not see cause for alarm. They note that China’s foreign exchange reserves are still by far the world’s largest and that a significant chunk of capital outflow is due to intentional policy choices by the Chinese government, rather than panicked investors seeking an exit.

经济学家们预计中国将继续出现温和的资本外流，但大多数分析师认为没有理由感到恐慌。他们指出，中国仍拥有全球最大外汇储备，资本外流有很大一部分是中国政府刻意的政策选择，而不是恐慌的投资者在寻求退出。

Finally, they note that while China has liberalised capital flows significantly, remaining controls still severely limit the ability of investors to transfer large sums abroad.

最后，他们指出，虽然中国已经显著放开资本流动限制，但尚存的管制措施依然严重限制投资者将大笔款项转移到境外的能力。

“Concerns about the outflows are exaggerated, especially as regards to outflows in the second quarter, which stabilised rather than worsened,” said Wang Tao, China economist at UBS.

“对于外流的担忧被夸大了，尤其是关于第二季度的流出，流出实际上是企稳，而不是恶化了，”瑞银(UBS)首席中国经济学家汪涛表示。