非洲崛起失去中国动力 Africa's rise is stalled by the Chinese slowdown

Enthusiasts for the “Africa Rising” story of rapid growth on the continent have spent much of the past 15 years strongly denying that the impressive economic performance was essentially about selling commodities to China. That confidence is currently being severely tested.

笃信非洲大陆将实现经济快速增长的“非洲崛起”故事热爱者在过去15年里常常强烈否认这种观点：非洲引人注目的经济表现主要是因为向中国出售大宗商品。这种信念目前正遭遇重大考验。

Prospects have darkened considerably. Growth momentum in much of sub-Saharan Africa is petering out. The International Monetary Fund reckons that growth rates in the region this year will fall to their lowest since before the global financial crisis and recover only marginally next year.

前景已大为黯淡。撒哈拉以南非洲大部分地区的增长势头正在消失。国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计，该地区今年的经济增速将降至自全球金融危机爆发以来最低水平，明年仅会略有回升。

Like many emerging economies, sub-Saharan African nations are discovering that a disturbing proportion of the rise in growth since 2000 was based on exporting expensive raw materials and importing cheap capital. China is the region’s biggest trading partner, and a fall in revenue from selling commodities there is hurting African economies.

与很多新兴经济体一样，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的国家发现，本地区自2000年以来的经济增长，来自于出口高价原材料和进口廉价资本的部分大得令人不安。中国是该地区最大贸易伙伴，向中国出售大宗商品的收入下滑正损及非洲经济。

Unsurprisingly, the worst-affected are the oil producers such as Nigeria and Angola, hit hard by the fall in the global price of crude. The IMF has cut from 7 per cent to 3.5 per cent its predictions for growth this year in the eight main oil-exporting countries, which make up about half of sub-Saharan Africa’s gross domestic product.

不出所料，受影响最大的是尼日利亚和安哥拉等产油国，全球原油价格下跌令这些国家遭受重创。IMF将该地区8个主要石油出口国今年的经济增速预期从7%下调至3.5%，这些国家占撒哈拉以南非洲地区国内生产总值(GDP)的一半左右。

Some slowdown was inevitable, but governments have not prepared well. Having failed to use enough of their bumper revenues over the past decade to rebuild reserves, many are coming into the commodity crunch with less fiscal space than they went into the global financial crisis.

一定程度的经济放缓是不可避免的，但政府没有做好充分的准备。由于未能充分利用过去十年中的巨额收入重建储备，很多国家在遭遇大宗商品危机之际，可运用的财政空间比全球金融危机来袭时还小。

Middle-income countries with significant commodity exports have also been feeling the pinch. Ghana, for example, has been disadvantaged by falls in gold prices. It also stands as a cautionary tale about how mismanagement of natural resources can turn a boon into a curse.

大量出口大宗商品的中等收入国家也受到影响。例如，加纳因金价下跌而受到不利影响。该国还展示了一个关于自然资源管理不善可能会把好事变成坏事的警示案例。

Ghana discovered oil in 2007 and began pumping it in 2010. But rather than reduce government debt, hold the revenues offshore in a standalone fund or indeed invest it domestically to increase productive capacity, Accra bought domestic popularity by using anticipated revenue to triple the salaries of the civil service and expand energy subsidies, and borrowed heavily from abroad.

加纳2007年发现石油资源，2010年开始开采。但加纳没有减轻政府债务、将海外收入归入一个独立基金或切实投资于国内经济以扩大生产能力，而是利用预期中的收入将公务员薪资提高两倍并增加能源补贴来提升国内民意支持率，同时从海外大举借债。

In the latter course, it was not alone. Several African countries issued eurobonds for the first time in their history as the search for yield in a world of super-low interest rates drove investors to hitherto neglected corners of the developing world.

加纳并非唯一从海外大举借债的国家。多个非洲国家在其历史上首次发行了欧元债券，因为在全球超低利率环境下追逐收益率的投资者忽视了发展中国家这些角落。

In Ghana’s case at least, the foreign borrowing spree looks even more foolish now than it did at the time. The country’s sovereign debt yields have spiralled, the currency has plunged and this summer the government called in the IMF for a rescue.

至少就加纳而言，海外借贷热潮现在看上去要比当时愚蠢。该国的主权债务收益率已螺旋上升，本币汇率大幅下挫，今年夏季该国政府请求IMF纾困。

Sub-Saharan African countries do not appear to have seized the opportunity of a favourable external environment to diversify and strengthen their economies sufficiently to thrive despite a change in that environment. Weak business environments and poor infrastructure need to be improved if they are to rise beyond their traditional patterns of dependence on the vagaries of the commodity and capital markets.

撒哈拉以南非洲国家看上去没有抓住外部有利环境的机遇，真正实现经济多样化并增强经济实力，力求在环境发生变化时仍能蓬勃发展。如果要超越依赖于变幻莫测的大宗商品和资本市场的传统模式，这些国家就需要改善缺乏活力的商业环境和薄弱的基础设施。

The pessimism should not be overdone. The continent contains huge potential, and the growth slowdown is less dramatic than in other emerging markets. Still, underdevelopment and inequality remain high. The idea that sub-Saharan Africa was embarking on a sustained growth surge that would lift large swaths of its population out of poverty has for the moment proved overly optimistic.

我们不应过度悲观。非洲大陆拥有巨大潜力，增长放缓的幅度不像其他新兴市场国家那么大。然而，该地区发展仍然落后，不平等程度仍然很高。认为撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济将持续快速增长、使大量人口摆脱贫困的想法目前看来是过度乐观了。