美国人不相信政客

Brace yourselves for a controversial observation: many US politicians are decent people. There — I’ve said it. Few Americans seem to agree. The public’s trust in their leaders is hitting an all-time low. Other than Brazil and Greece, no other democracy has such contempt for its system. The US is at the other end of the spectrum to China, where the public’s faith in government leads the world, according to Edelman’s global trust barometer.

准备好迎接一个有争议的观察心得：很多美国政客是正派人士。没错，这话是我说的。似乎没有几个美国人这么认为。美国公众对其领导人的信任触及历史低点。除巴西和希腊外，没有哪个民主国家如此鄙视本国的体制。Edelman全球信任度晴雨表显示，中国公众对政府的信任度居世界之首，而美国处于另一端。

“Nobody trusts anybody round here,” says Lindsey Graham, the Republican senator. “And most Americans don’t trust any of us.”

“这里没有人信任任何人，”共和党参议员林赛?格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)表示，“而大多数美国人不信任我们中的任何人。”

Can we blame them? At least partly, yes. The US government is of the people, by the people and for the people. Mistrust comes from the people too. Washington’s breakdown mirrors growing divisions in society — between white and non-white, graduates and non-graduates, city and hinterland, young and old. American politics has become a winner-takes-all game. Yet the constitution is built to work only when there is compromise. President Donald Trump can go to Davos this week because Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, agreed to reopen the US government. He could close it again when funding runs out in less than three weeks. Yet Mr Trump now taunts him as “Cryin’ Chuck”.

我们能怪他们吗？至少在某些程度上，是该怪他们。美国政府是民治、民有、民享的政府。不信任也来自于民众。华盛顿运转不灵反映了美国社会日益加深的分裂——白人与非白人之间、毕业生与非毕业生之间、城市与乡村之间、年轻人与老年人之间。美国政治已经变成了一场赢家通吃的游戏。然而，宪法只有在各方妥协的情况下才能发挥作用。美国总统唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)上周能去达沃斯，是因为参议院民主党领袖查克?舒默(Chuck Schumer)同意让美国政府恢复运转。临时拨款支撑的时间只有三周，到时他可以让政府再次停摆。然而，眼下特朗普奚落他是“哭鼻子的查克”。

What would Mr Trump be calling him if the Democrats had not caved in? The chances are no better today for a deal than yesterday. Almost eight out of 10 Republicans think immigration is too high; fewer than three out of 10 Democrats agree. One party is overwhelmingly white. The other is majority non-white. Mr Trump says he would be happy with more incomers from Norway. But he draws the line at Africa. It is not as if the two can find common ground somewhere in between — Mexico for example. Most of the so-called Dreamers are Hispanic. These are the people from whom Mr Trump wants to “take America back”. It follows that Cryin’ Chuck will have no better luck at protecting them early next month than he did this week.

如果民主党没有让步，特朗普会怎么称呼他呢？今天两党达成协议的概率并不比昨天高。每10名共和党人中，近8人认为移民太多；但认为移民太多的民主党人不到三分之一。其中一党绝大多数是白人。另外一党多数是非白人。特朗普称，他会乐于看到更多来自挪威的移民。但是他对非洲移民没有好话。两党在两者之间——比如墨西哥——似乎找不到共同立场。大多数所谓的“梦想者”来自拉美国家。特朗普希望从这些人手中“夺回美国”。由此可见，“哭鼻子的查克”在下月初能够保护他们的运气并不会好过上周。

Evaporation of trust is corroding politics across the west. But it is most toxic in the US. No other democracy is heading towards a majority-minority future. The world has yet to see what happens to a society when its majority ceases to be one. No other country has seen such a collapse in support for public service.

信任感消失殆尽正侵蚀着西方国家的政治。但这个问题在美国最具毒性。除美国外，没有哪个民主国家正在走向少数族裔占据多数人口的未来。世界还从未经历过，当一个社会的多数族裔不再占人口多数的时候会发生什么情况。就支持公共服务而言，没有别的国家出现过这样的崩溃。

Mr Trump will sing America’s virtues to the world’s biggest investors in Davos on Friday. Back home he is obliterating America’s ability to govern itself. In no other serious democracy is its head of government accusing the main law enforcement bodies, the judiciary and the intelligence agencies of bias. Supposedly neutral appointees are now required to show personal loyalty to the president.

上周五，特朗普在达沃斯论坛上向世界各大投资者夸耀美国的优越性。在国内，他正在毁灭美国本身的治国能力。从没有哪个正经民主国家的政府首脑指责本国主要执法机构、司法机构和情报机构存在偏见。由总统任命的理应中立的官员，如今被要求向他个人效忠。

Probably the last institution Mr Trump has not criticised is the US military. That is no accident. Alone among America’s institutions, the armed forces enjoy high public trust. Almost three-quarters have confidence in the military, according to Gallup. No other comes close to winning half of America. Congress is barely at double digits. Mr Schumer should not have closed the US government unless he was prepared to hold fast. Within 72 hours he had changed his mind. In between, Mr Trump tweeted that Democrats were “holding the military hostage over their desire to have unchecked illegal immigration”. Say what you like about Mr Trump, but he knows where to find the jugular. Which American, hand on heart, would prefer an illegal foreigner to a citizen soldier?

美国军队很可能是最后一个未遭特朗普批评的机构。这并非偶然。在美国的各个机构中，只有武装部队享有高度的公众信任。盖洛普(Gallup)的调查显示，近四分之三的美国人对军队有信心。没有别的机构能够赢得近一半美国人的信任。对国会的信任度勉强达到两位数。除非舒默准备坚守立场，否则他确实不应该让美国政府停摆。他在72小时内就改变了主意。在此期间，特朗普在Twitter上发文称，民主党人“为了向非法移民敞开大门而把我们的军队当作人质”。你爱怎么说特朗普都可以，但他知道在哪里找到对手的致命弱点。扪心自问，哪个美国人会喜欢一个非法的外国人胜过一个公民军人？

But this is a dangerous journey. In a nation of tribes, only the warriors command respect. What happens if they lose it? A few months ago, I was sitting on a flight next to a young black woman in army uniform. A middle-aged white man walked back from business class to offer his seat. She politely refused. “Thank you for your service,” he said. Had she been a teacher, a lawmaker, a nurse or a central bank governor, nobody would have thanked her — let alone offered their seat.

但这是一条险径。在一个由不同部落组成的国家，只有军人才能赢得尊重。如果他们失去尊重会发生什么？几个月前我搭乘航班，旁边是一位身穿军装的年轻黑人女士。一名中年白人男子从商务舱走过来，想把自己的座位让给她。她礼貌地婉拒了。“感谢您为国效力。”他说。如果她是一名教师、国会议员、护士或者央行行长，没有人会感谢她——更不用说让座了。

A generation ago, the US military was the most hated institution in America because of the Vietnam war. Today people flatter the uniform.

一代人之前，因为越南战争，美国军队成了国内最令人痛恨的机构。如今，人们对军人无比敬重。

Other public bodies should be studying how the Pentagon went from zero to hero. But the example runs both ways. If Mr Trump were to turn on the military, for example, there would be few places to hide. Likewise, if the army were to lose its confidence in elected politicians, the republic would be in trouble. We are closer to that point than many realise. The greatest bulwark between the US republic and a descent into tribalism are the men and women in uniform. We should ponder the implications of that. They are not reassuring.

其他公共机构应该研究五角大楼是如何从“狗熊”变为英雄的。但是这个事也是两方面的。例如，如果特朗普把批评的矛头指向军队，就没有多少地方可以隐藏了。同样，如果军队对民选政界人士失去信心，美国这个共和国也会陷入麻烦。我们接近这一点的程度，超出许多人的意识。阻止美利坚合众国沦为部落社会的最大壁垒是美国军人。我们应该思考这其中的潜在影响。这些影响不能令人安心。