英国首相选择提前大选的前因与后果

With one bound? Theresa May is making a dash for freedom. The prime minister’s calculation is that a decisive general election victory on June 8 would bestow a personal mandate, the right to set her own agenda, and, this above all, the authority over her own party she needs to negotiate Brexit. A glance at the opinion polls tells you the stars will never be more favourably aligned.

大步跳跃？特里萨?梅(Theresa May)正向着自由冲去。这位英国首相盘算着，在6月8日大选中取得决定性胜利，将赋予她个人民意授权、制定自己议程的权利，最重要的是开展退欧谈判所需的党内权威。扫一眼民意调查就知道，没有比现在更有利的时刻了。

Received wisdom had it that Mrs May was perfectly comfortable governing in the shadow of her predecessor David Cameron. Had she not said many times that the present parliament would run its full course until 2020? Received wisdom has taken quite a battering lately. If there was a justified element of surprise in her announcement it was because this cautious, deliberative politician has a deserved reputation for risk aversion.

人们曾普遍认为，梅在前任戴维?卡梅伦(David Cameron)留给她的座位上相当自在。她不是还多次表示，本届议会将一直运行到2020年期满为止吗？普遍共识在最近遭到了重创。如果说她的提前大选宣布有合理的意外之处，那就是这位谨慎、思考缜密的政治人物有着值得称道的厌恶风险的名声。

Doing nothing was the bigger risk. Mrs May was a Remainer, albeit a reluctant one, during last year’s referendum campaign. She will never be trusted by the anti-European ultras on the Conservative right for whom a hard Brexit is the soft option. With a small parliamentary majority, it was already evident they could take her prisoner during negotiations with the other 27 member states of the EU. She needed to shift the dynamic. The alternative was to hold on to office without power.

问题是什么都不做的风险更大。在去年的公投前拉票活动中，梅站在留欧阵营（尽管她是这个阵营的不情愿成员）。她永远不会得到保守党右翼反欧洲极端分子的信任；对这些人来说，硬退欧是柔软的选择。鉴于保守党在议会只有微弱多数席位，已经可以明显看出，他们会在英国与欧盟其他27个成员国谈判时，对她开出各种各样的条件。她需要改变这种格局。另一个选择是继续坐在首相职位，但没有实权。

The election gives her permission to escape the straitjacket of Mr Cameron’s 2015 manifesto and, always assuming she wins, choose her own cabinet. Mrs May has made no secret of what she thinks of her predecessor. The kerfuffle and subsequent U-turn over proposed tax changes in the March budget were an unwelcome reminder of his legacy. As for the cabinet, word in Whitehall has it that Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, is among those whose future claim to a cabinet seat depends on just how energetically he campaigns for Mrs May.

假设她赢了，大选将让她逃脱卡梅伦2015年宣言的束缚，她还能选择自己的内阁。梅并不掩饰自己对其前任的看法。3月份预算中提议的税改所造成的混乱，以及随后的大转变，是卡梅伦政治遗产的一个不受欢迎的提示。至于内阁，白厅内部有传言说，外交大臣鲍里斯?约翰逊(Boris Johnson)等人未来的内阁席位，将取决于他们多么卖力地为梅助选。

Snap elections can go wrong, of course, as Edward Heath discovered in February 1974. In the midst of a battle with the trade unions, the then Tory prime minister went to the country with a question that he always intended to be rhetorical: “Who governs Britain?” The voters replied by choosing Harold Wilson’s Labour opposition.

当然，提前选举也会失算，正如爱德华?希斯(Edward Heath)在1974年2月所发现的。在与工会的斗争中，这位时任保守党在全国竞选时问选民：“谁在统治英国？”他的本意始终是反问，但选民的回答是选择哈罗德?威尔逊(Harold Wilson)的反对党工党(Labour)。

Voters will not thank Mrs May for dragging them to the polls again. Nor will they be impressed by the flimsy pretence that she was forced into the decision by the Brexit manoeuvring of the opposition parties. The politics here is all about the Conservative party. By reneging on a solemn pledge, the prime minister does nothing to raise popular trust in the political class.

选民不会感谢梅将他们再次拖到投票站。他们也不会被她的勉强说辞打动，即她是因为反对党在退欧问题上玩弄花招才被迫作出这一决定的。这件事上的政治全都关乎保守党。由于英国首相违背了一个庄严承诺，她没有帮助提升公众对政治阶层的信任。

This is not, though, 1974. Wilson was a political master. He had served six years as prime minister. Jeremy Corbyn is no Wilson. The far left Labour leader is more comfortable in the company of Latin American revolutionaries than voters in Doncaster or Dorset. Prospective prime ministers need one thing above all else: credibility. Picture Mr Corbyn framed in the doorway of 10 Downing Street. Labour MPs now charging towards the Tory guns do so in the expectation many will be cut down on June 8.

不过，现在的大局有别于1974年。威尔逊是政治大师，他曾担任6年首相。杰里米?科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)不是威尔逊。这位极左翼工党领袖与拉美革命者（而不是唐卡斯特或多塞特郡的选民）在一起更自在。未来的首相最需要的一个特质是可信度。科尔宾的照片挂在唐宁街10号门道的墙上是不堪设想的。如今，很多工党议员在与保守党对手竞选时，对于自己将在6月8日投票中惨败做好了心理准备。

The election will not disrupt the Brexit negotiations, not least because serious bargaining cannot begin until after Germany goes to the polls in the autumn. Nor should the prospect of a hefty Conservative majority revive hopes among pro-Europeans of a soft Brexit. The decisions to leave the single market and the customs union were taken by the prime minister, and Mrs May is not about to abandon her distinctly illiberal view of immigration. That said, a convincing victory would shift some of the parameters.

此次大选不会干扰退欧谈判，尤其是因为只有等德国秋季大选后才能展开认真谈判。保守党在议会拥有明显多数席位的前景，也不应该重振亲欧派对于软退欧的希望。离开单一市场和关税联盟的决定是首相作出的，而梅也不打算放弃她在移民问题上鲜明的小家子气观点。话虽如此，一场令人信服的胜利将改变一些参数。

Just as importantly, it would change the texture of the negotiations.

同样重要的是，它将改变谈判的纹理。

Eight months into the job, Mrs May has begun to face up to the complexity of the challenge. She cannot, as she thought until quite recently, expect a bespoke deal with the EU that would offer the best of all worlds.

上任8个月后的今天，梅已经开始面对这一挑战的复杂性。直到最近她才意识到，她不能期待与欧盟达成两全其美的定制协议。

Britain will have to make compromises and concessions. Hence Downing Street’s new willingness to countenance a transition period and signals that Britain will accept large numbers of European migrants for many years after Brexit. More such concessions will have to be made, not least in recognising that if it wants to retain a close relationship with some EU agencies Britain will have to afford the European Court of Justice a role in disputes resolution.

英国必须作出妥协和让步。因此唐宁街最近表示愿意考虑一个过渡时期，并发出信号表示，英国将在退欧后的多年里接收大量欧洲移民。英国必须作出更多这样的让步，尤其是承认如果它还想与一些欧盟机构保持密切关系，它就必须给予欧洲法院(European Court of Justice)一个解决争端的角色。

A substantial win for the Conservatives in June will not end the divisions among Brexiters — not least between those who see the departure from Europe as an opportunity to strike a more nationalist, protectionist pose and free trade globalists who dream of creating what Whitehall officials have cruelly dubbed “Empire 2.0”. A strong personal mandate, though, would give Mrs May a margin of manoeuvre.

保守党在6月份取得重大胜利不会终结退欧派内部的分歧，尤其在是那些将退欧视作一个摆出更民族主义、保护主义姿态的机会的人，和那些梦想创造被白厅官员们刻薄地称为“帝国2.0”(Empire 2.0)、支持自由贸易的全球主义者之间的分歧。然而，获得强有力的个人民意授权，将让梅有一定的回旋余地。

All this, of course, tells only half the story. There remains the small matter of what the other 27 EU member states are prepared to offer. The Brits are prone to forget that other European states have politics too. So the financial markets should not become over-excited. What can be said is that if the odds last week on a deal being struck during the Brexit talks were no better than 50:50, they have shortened somewhat in favour of an agreement.

当然，这一切都只讲了一半故事。还有欧盟其他27国成员准备提供什么的“小问题”。英国人容易忘记其他欧洲国家也有政治。因此金融市场不应过分兴奋。可以说的是，如果退欧谈判达成协议的几率在上周不超过50%，现在达成协议的几率高了一些。

A step forward, then, rather than a great bound.

也就是说，这是向前的一步，而不是大步跳跃。