对中美“百日谈判”结果拭目以待

For Chinese officials, Xi Jinping’s first face-to-face encounter with Donald Trump in Florida was a success, principally because it was not a disaster.

对中国官员来说，习近平与唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)在佛罗里达州海湖庄园(Mar-a-Lago)的首次会面是成功的——主要是因为这没变成一场灾难。

From the perspective of China’s risk-averse Communist rulers, the summit was always going to be a high-risk gambit. But with an increasing realisation in both Washington and Beijing that the current imbalances in their trade and investment relationship are not sustainable, meeting Mr Trump on his home turf was a risk Mr Xi had to take. The alternative was a possible all-out trade war between the world’s two largest economies just as the Chinese president prepares for a second five-year term with a revamped leadership team. During such “selection years”, economic and social stability is the paramount concern for the ruling Chinese Communist party.

从厌恶风险的中共领导者角度来看，举行峰会始终是一个高风险的策略。但随着华盛顿和北京双方都日益认识到，两国间贸易和投资关系当前的失衡是不可持续的，于是，到特朗普的地盘与之会面就成了习近平不得不冒的风险。如若不然，全球两大经济体之间可能爆发全面贸易战争，而此时正值这位中国领导人改组领导班子迎接第二个五年任期——值此换届之际，经济和社会稳定是执政党中共的首要关切事项。

Like so many other capitals around the world, including Washington, Beijing wants to know if Mr Trump is crazy like a fox — or just crazy. Either way, it is an academic distinction. Whether the US president ultimately upends the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship by accident or by design, the damage will be done.

像全球许多国家的政府——包括华盛顿——一样，北京方面也想知道特朗普到底是疯狂加老谋深算，还是只是单纯的疯狂而已。不管怎样，这只是理论上的差别。无论这位美国总统最终是出于无意还是有意颠覆了世界上最重要的双边关系，都将造成伤害。

Mr Xi saw his meeting with Mr Trump as a critical opportunity to argue the case for stability in Sino-US relations. The Chinese government’s worst fears, however, seemed to be coming true almost as soon as the meeting at Mr Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort was confirmed.

在习近平看来，与特朗普会晤将提供一个关键契机，他可借此力陈中美关系有必要保持稳定。但看起来中国政府最大的担忧几乎在确定此次海湖庄园会晤时就已成真。

On March 31, a Chinese vice-foreign minister was scheduled to brief foreign reporters about his government’s expectations for a positive and constructive meeting between the two presidents.

3月31日，中国副外长郑泽光按计划要举办外国记者吹风会，简要介绍中国政府期待两国领导人进行一场积极的、有建设性的会面。

But just hours before Zheng Zeguang did so, Mr Trump tweeted his prediction for a “very difficult” encounter with Mr Xi over “massive trade deficits and job losses”. Mr Zheng then spent a good part of his briefing parrying questions about the US president’s tweet.

但就在吹风会召开的几个小时前，特朗普在Twitter上表示由于“大规模贸易逆差和就业流失”，他预计与习近平的会面将“非常艰难”。郑泽光在随后的媒体通报中大部分时间都用来回避有关美国总统这条帖子的提问。

Officials in Beijing scrambled to contact trusted American intermediaries. According to people familiar with the calls, the message was “please ask your president to stop tweeting” about the meeting. “How seriously should we take his tweets?” one bewildered Chinese diplomat asked the Financial Times. “He’s not like any other leader we have ever dealt with.”

中国官员赶忙纷纷联系可靠的美国中间人。据了解这些电话的知情人士表示，电话内容都是“请让你们的总统别再发布关于此次会面的Twitter帖子。”一位中国外交官困惑地向英国《金融时报》问道：“我们该以多认真的态度来看待他这些帖子？他跟我们打过交道的所有领导人都不像。”

In the end, @realDonaldTrump went easy on his Chinese counterpart. During Mr Xi’s two days at Mar-a-Lago, he merely tweeted a video showing his granddaughter charming the Chinese president with her Mandarin language skills. It initially appeared that young Arabella Kushner’s performance might be the highlight of a summit otherwise overshadowed by the US missile attack on Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.

最终，@realDonaldTrump（特朗普的Twitter账号）给中国领导人留了情面。在习近平到访海湖庄园的两天期间，特朗普只在Twitter上发布了一段视频，展示其外孙女用自己的汉语普通话语言能力吸引住了中国国家主席。最初看起来，年幼的阿拉贝拉?库什纳(Arabella Kushner)的表现可能成为峰会的亮点，但美国对叙利亚巴沙尔?阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)政权发动的导弹攻击却为峰会蒙上了阴影。

Mr Xi and Mr Trump did not take questions from the press. They did not even release a bland communiqué for the world to parse. But it emerged that the two sides’ had agreed to a rushed 100-day negotiation over some of their thorniest trade and investment disputes.

习近平与特朗普都未接受记者提问，他们甚至连一份供世界剖析的平淡无奇的公报都未发布。但接着就传出消息，双方已经同意就部分最棘手的贸易和投资争议开展100天的仓促谈判。

It is in this particular arena that the alpha male drama that began in Florida will ultimately play out.

一场在佛罗里达州拉开帷幕、由男性政治强人主演的大戏最终将在这个特定的舞台上演到终场。

Mr Trump’s Treasury secretary, commerce secretary and incoming trade representative have a unique opportunity to narrow the $347bn trade deficit in goods with its biggest trading partner, while also pressing for increased market access in China for US service sector companies.

特朗普的财政部长、商务部长以及即将上任的贸易代表面对一个独特机遇，有望缩小美国与最大贸易伙伴之间3470亿美元的货物贸易逆差，同时为美国服务业企业争取扩大在华市场准入。

Those companies have a substantial surplus in their trade with the world’s second-largest economy and would enjoy an even bigger one if they could operate as freely in China as Chinese companies do in the US.

此类企业在服务贸易方面对世界第二大经济体存在巨大顺差，如果它们在中国的经营能够像中国企业在美国那样自由，它们还将获得更大的顺差。

If Mr Xi is prepared to pay a high price for stability in Sino-US affairs, says one multinational executive who is keenly awaiting the outcome of the 100-day talks, the lesson will be that pressing China can work. The world will soon find out whether there is indeed a method in Mr Trump’s apparent madness.

一位正在急切等待百日谈判结果的跨国公司高管表示，如果习近平准备好为中美关系稳定付出高昂代价，那便说明对中国施压可以奏效。世界很快将看清，特朗普在疯狂表象下是否的确存有理性。