美国下一步对朝鲜的三个选项

Victor Cha, a White House adviser on North Korea during the George W Bush administration, described the reclusive nation as “the land of lousy options”. It is a reality the Trump administration is now facing weeks after it ordered a review of its strategy toward the aggressive, isolated country.

曾在小布什(George W Bush)政府期间担任白宫朝鲜事务顾问的维克托?查(Victor Cha)，把朝鲜这个封闭的国家描述为“艰难选择之地”。这是特朗普(Trump)政府下令重审美国对这个充满侵略性、与世隔绝的国家的战略几周之后所面临的现实。

Rex Tillerson, US secretary of state, will visit Asia next week in an attempt to “try and generate a new approach to North Korea”. The former Exxon chief may struggle to find fresh ideas. Here are his options:

国务卿雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)将于下周出访亚洲，试图“尝试和形成一种新的对朝策略”。这位前埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)掌舵人也许很难找到新想法。这里是他的几个选项：

Cut a deal

达成协议

On the campaign trail last year, Donald Trump said he would be willing to sit down for a burger with Kim Jong Un.

在去年的竞选中，唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)表示，他愿意和金正恩(Kim Jong Un)一起坐下来吃汉堡。

The suggestion, while unlikely given North Korea’s supreme leader has not ventured past his own borders since he ascended to power, raised the prospect that the US under a self-professed dealmaker president could strike a landmark agreement.

鉴于朝鲜最高领导人自上台后从未冒险离开本国，这一提议不大可能实现，但它增加了自封为交易撮合者的总统领导下的美国与朝鲜达成一项里程碑式协议的可能性。

The notion has some currency among North Korea watchers, who believe the country would be more inclined to negotiate on its nuclear and ballistic weapons programmes if its back was not against the wall.

这个想法在一定程度上获得了朝鲜观察家的支持。他们认为，如果不是毫无退路，朝鲜将更愿意就其核武器和弹道武器计划展开谈判。

“If the US really hopes to achieve peace on the Korean peninsula, it should stop looking for ways to stifle North Korea’s economy and undermine Kim Jong Un’s regime and start finding ways to make Pyongyang feel more secure,” wrote John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University, in a recent Foreign Affairs article.

不久前，延世大学(Yonsei University)教授鲁乐汉(John Delury)在《外交政策》(Foreign Policy)撰文称：“如果美国真的希望实现朝鲜半岛的和平，那么就应该停止想方设法扼杀朝鲜的经济和破坏金正恩政权，而要开始想办法使平壤方面感到更安全。”

“This might sound counterintuitive. But consider this: North Korea will start focusing on its prosperity instead of its self-preservation only once it no longer has to worry about its own destruction.”

“这听起来可能违反直觉，但请考虑一点，朝鲜只有不再担心自己被摧毁，才会开始关注其国内繁荣，而不是自卫。”

Such a deal might entail the cancellation of US-South Korea military drills or even the prospect of an official peace treaty on the Korean peninsula in exchange for a moratorium on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons development.

这样的协议也许包括取消美韩军事演习，甚至包括就朝鲜半岛问题签署正式和平条约、换取朝鲜暂停开发核武器的可能性。

On Monday Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said such a “dual suspension” would help break the security dilemma. Beijing, a long-time ally of Pyongyang, is widely seen as pivotal player in any scenario.

中国外长王毅周一表示，这种“双暂停”将有助于摆脱安全困境。外界广泛认为，朝鲜的长期盟友中国在任何解决方案中都是一个关键角色。

The carrot and stick

胡萝卜加大棒

For most officials and experts, including former US director of national intelligence James Clapper, the possibility of voluntary de-nuclearisation is a lost cause.

对于包括前美国国家情报总监(DNI)詹姆斯?克拉珀(James Clapper)在内的大多数官员和专家而言，朝鲜自愿弃核的可能性根本不存在。

Yet for others it must be the first step. Without it, the world is simply “borrowing tomorrow’s peace”, according to Chun Yung-woo, a former leader of South Korean negotiations with the North.

但对于其他人来说，弃核必须是第一步。曾任韩国对朝谈判主要代表的千英宇(Chun Yung-woo)表示，没有这一步，世界只是在“透支明天的和平”。

Previous deals with North Korea have been undercut by mutual distrust and a lack of transparency in Pyongyang. The breathing space gained from reduced tensions ultimately helped the regime propel its weapons programmes.

以前与朝鲜达成的协议，因彼此猜忌和平壤方面缺乏透明度而受到削弱。从紧张减轻中获得的喘息空间，最终帮助朝鲜政权加快了其武器研发计划。

Critics of a deal scenario, including Mr Chun, argue that sanctions must be ratcheted up to the point where the Kim regime is on the edge of collapse. Then aggressive diplomacy must be enacted to force Mr Kim to abandon his nuclear ambitions.

包括千英宇在内的对达成协议的前景持批评态度的人认为，必须加大制裁力度，直到金正恩政权走到崩溃边缘。接着，必须启动强势的外交攻势，迫使金正恩放弃他的核野心。

Such experts believe the young marshal will only negotiate when faced with overthrow at home borne out of economic turmoil.

这些专家认为，只有在国内面对经济动荡引发的政权被推翻危险时，这位年轻元帅才会进行谈判。

“Sanctions should be a tool to bring North Korea back to the negotiation table,” said Yang Moo-jin from the University of North Korean studies in Seoul.

“制裁应该成为使朝鲜回到谈判桌的工具，”首尔朝鲜研究大学(University of North Korean Studies)的杨武仁(Yang Moo-jin)表示。

This line of reasoning, however, is undermined by the ineffectiveness of the current round of sanctions, the most severe yet.

然而，当前这一轮制裁未奏效，削弱了这种推理思路。这轮制裁是迄今最严厉的一轮。

The US could bolster these measures with a secondary boycott of Chinese companies doing business with North Korea, said Kim Jaechun, a professor at Sogang University, but that “would do irreparable harm to its ties with China”.

西江大学(Sogang University)教授金宰春(Kim Jae-chun)说，美国可以通过抵制跟朝鲜做生意的中国企业，加大制裁力度，但这“将给美中关系造成不可挽回的损害”。

Another option would be to freeze North Korea out of the international banking system — a possibility that gained ground on Wednesday with reports that Swift, the financial messaging service, had banned three North Korean banks.

另一个选项是把朝鲜赶出国际银行体系——周三，这种可能性有所加大，有报道称，金融通讯服务商Swift已禁止三家朝鲜银行使用其系统。

Pre-emptive strike

先发制人的打击

The likely consequences of an attack on North Korea would be so catastrophic the option is rarely discussed seriously.

攻击朝鲜造成的可能后果将极为惨重，以至于这一选项很少被认真讨论。

In the 1990s US President Bill Clinton considered it, only to be dissuaded by estimates of 1m South Korean casualties in retaliatory strikes from Pyongyang.

在20世纪90年代，美国总统比尔?克林顿(Bill Clinton)考虑过该选项，但朝鲜的报复性打击可能给韩国造成100万伤亡，令他放弃了。

The South Korean capital, Seoul, sits a little more than a marathon-run from the border between the two countries — the most militarised zone on earth.

韩国首都首尔与朝韩边境的距离略大于马拉松跑的全程长度。朝韩边境是世界上军事化程度最高的区域。

Mr Cha on Wednesday said the chances of a strike were “not high because the North Koreans are now getting more and more sophisticated”.

维克托?查周三表示，军事打击的可能性“不太大，因为朝鲜军队的能力越来越强”。

“In the end the North Korean actions are going to predetermine the outcome of the [US] policy review?.?.?.?The North Koreans are really not giving Trump any room on this.”

“最终，朝鲜的行动将预先决定（美国）政策审查的结果……朝鲜人在这方面真的没给特朗普留下任何空间。”