FBI扔出的邮件调查炸弹威力有多大
No, the Federal Bureau of Investigation is not working for Donald Trump — though Hillary Clinton should be forgiven for suspecting that.
不，联邦调查局(FBI)不是在给唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)打工，尽管希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)要这么猜疑也是情有可原的。
The reality is more troubling.
现实更加令人不安。
James Comey, the FBI director, was panicked into issuing his statement by the opposite fear — that if he had held back Republicans would have accused him of working for Mrs Clinton.
联邦调查局局长詹姆斯.科米(James Comey)之所以惊慌失措地发表了自己的声明，是出于相反的顾虑——如果他捂住案情，共和党人就会指责他为希拉里工作。
Mr Comey, the fearsome sentinel, has over-reached.
作为令人生畏的哨兵，科米反应过度了，
Public servants should never take actions that could sway a presidential election.
公务员永远不应该作出任何可能影响总统大选的举动。
His lapse was a result of Mr Trump having already singled him out as part of a rigged system.
他之所以有此失误，是因为特朗普已经指责他是受操纵的体制中的一员。
In a country so viscerally divided, neutrality is treated as collusion.
在一个严重撕裂的国家，中立会被视作同谋。
On Friday Mr Comey was hustled into making an error.
上周五，科米急中犯了错。
Autocracies are run on fear.
威权政体靠恐惧维系，
Democracies are held together by trust.
而民主政体靠信任凝聚。
The reckless timing of Mr Comey’s disclosure that he was expanding the investigation into Mrs Clinton’s emails is what happens when officials wobble.
科米公布他将扩大调查希拉里电子邮件的时机很草率，这是官员们犹疑不决时会发生的典型情况。
If Mr Trump wins next week he has vowed to put Mrs Clinton in jail. His supporters chant lock her up at every rally.
如果特朗普下周获胜，他已发誓要把希拉里关进监狱，他的支持者在每场集会上都呼喊着把她关起来。
If Mrs Clinton wins, Mr Trump will find more Comeys to intimidate.
如果希拉里赢了，特朗普将找到更多科米作为恐吓对象。
When one side in a democracy throws around pre-emptive charges of treason — and there is none higher than rigging a presidential election — the ground on which the law stands shrinks.
当民主政体中的一方先发制人地抛出叛国罪指控——没什么比操纵总统大选更严重的叛国罪了——法律赖以发挥效力的基础将萎缩。
It is harder to uphold blind justice, or administer a neutral process, when a storm is blowing around you.
当你被裹挟入一场风暴时，你就很难坚持一视同仁的公正，或坚守中立程序。
Mr Trump’s campaign is a howling gale. Mr Comey just lost his shirt.
特朗普的竞选活动就像一场呼啸的狂风，科米被刮跑了衬衣。
Can Mrs Clinton survive her October surprise? If the question is will she win next week, the answer is still probably yes.
希拉里能挺过这个10月惊奇吗？如果问题是她能否赢得下周大选，答案很可能依旧是肯定的。
Though it is too soon for polls to measure the impact of Mr Comey’s hand grenade, Mrs Clinton’s lead on Friday was wide enough to sustain a couple of points of damage.
虽然用民调衡量科米这枚手榴弹的影响还为时过早，但希拉里在上周五的领先优势大到足以承受几个百分点的损失。
If the question is whether she could govern, the picture looks different.
但如果问题是她能否治理这个国家，答案就不同了。
Even a 1 per cent swing against Mrs Clinton could tip the race for the US Senate.
即使希拉里支持率有1%的变化，也能左右对参议院的角逐。
Without a Democratic Senate majority, Mrs Clinton’s chances of passing anything will drop.
没有一个民主党占多数席位的参议院，希拉里推动通过任何议案的几率都将下降。
Even before Mr Comey’s Halloween gift, it was likely that Republicans would retain control of the House of Representatives.
即使在科米送出这份万圣节大礼之前，共和党人也很可能保留对众议院的控制。
The largest cost is likely to show up in the wake of a Clinton win.
最大的损失可能要等到希拉里赢得大选后才显现。
The narrower her margin of victory, the easier it will be for Mr Trump to spark outrage over a stolen election.
她的获胜优势越小，特朗普就越容易激发人们对选举造假的愤恨，
It would also give him more of a grip over Republicans in Congress.
并增加他对国会共和党人的控制力。
Legislators respond to feedback from their districts.
立法者需对自己选区的民意作出回应。
By Jeffersonian design, the House is where the link between elected and elector is most electric.
按照托马斯•杰斐逊（Thomas Jefferson，美国第三任总统——译者注）的设计，众议院是民选官员和选民之间关系最具活力的环节。
If Mr Trump’s base is inflamed, Republican legislators will take their cue.
如果特朗普的根基选民被激怒，共和党立法者将顺应民意。
Most of their voters already believe Mrs Clinton is dishonest and corrupt.
绝大多数共和党选民已经相信希拉里为人不诚实且腐败，
It is no great leap to endorsing Mr Trump’s claim that the Clintons are a criminal enterprise.
不需要多大努力就能让这些人相信特朗普所称的克林顿夫妇是犯罪企业。
It is hard to talk yourself down from such incendiary language.
这种煽动性言论一旦说出口就很难下台。
It would be easier were the target anyone other than Mrs Clinton.
如果矛头指向希拉里之外的任何人，攻击者自己找台阶下台还容易一些。
Before re-entering the White House, she would be the most investigated political figure in US history.
在希拉里重返白宫前，她将是美国历史上被调查最多的政治人物，
Not even her husband has been the subject of this many probes and subpoenas.
连她丈夫都没受过这么多调查和传讯。
If she wins next week, Mrs Clinton will face many more.
如果希拉里下周当选，她将面对更多调查。
With the help of WikiLeaks, Republicans believe they have enough ammunition to open up fresh investigations.
在维基解密(WikiLeaks)的助推下，共和党人相信他们有充足弹药展开新的调查。
For ambitious legislators, holding her feet to the coals is a sure-fire route to folk-hero status.
对于雄心勃勃的立法者来说，追究希拉里的过错是让自己成为民间英雄的可靠路径。
Their unwitting ally is Mrs Clinton herself.
希拉里本人在无意中成为了他们的盟友。
It is remarkable that she has not yet promised to sever family links to the Clinton Foundation if elected.
值得注意的是，她还未承诺在当选后切断家庭与克林顿基金会的关系。
At the moment the plan is for Chelsea Clinton to take over its day-to-day running.
目前的计划是由切尔西.克林顿(Chelsea Clinton)接手克林顿基金会的日常运营。
It is not enough for Caesar’s wife to be clean.
凯撒的妻子是清白的还不够。
She must be above suspicion.
她必须做到无可怀疑。
The Clinton Foundation fails that test.
克林顿基金会没有通过测试。
It has taken billions of dollars from governments, companies and wealthy individuals — some dubious.
该基金会从政府、企业和富有的个人那里收受了数十亿美元——其中一些很可疑。
That the cheques were made out for good causes is no help.
这些支票是为了公益事业而开具也无济于事。
To Mrs Clinton’s foes the foundation provides a cornucopia of stories and scandals.
对希拉里的对手而言，这家基金会提供了取之不尽的故事和丑闻。
Governments such as Qatar and Morocco channelled money through Mr Clinton, rather than the UN, say, or the Gates Foundation for a reason.
卡塔尔和摩洛哥等国的政府通过克林顿输送金钱，而不是通过联合国或者像盖茨基金会(Gates Foundation)这样的机构是有原因的。
In their view it provided access to, and possible influence over, Mr Clinton.
在它们看来，这样做能够提供接近克林顿的渠道，甚至有可能获得对他的影响力。
He and Mrs Clinton earned big speaking fees from some of the same entities.
克林顿和希拉里还从这些实体赚取了巨额的演讲费。
In a highly charged environment, Mrs Clinton would take office as the first president since Gallup started polling to have a trust deficit with the American public.
在高度紧张的局势下，如果希拉里当选，她将成为自盖洛普(Gallup)开始民调以来首位与美国公众之间存在信任缺失的总统。
Mrs Clinton is both the victim and co-author of her own torment.
希拉里既是她本人所受困扰的受害者，也是始作俑者之一。
Every time she took a decision with any bearing on a former donor to the Clinton Foundation, there would be a perceived conflict of interest.
每当她做出一个与克林顿基金会的前捐赠者有任何关联的决策时，外界都会认为存在利益冲突。
That would apply even more to entities that have paid private speaking fees to either Clinton.
涉及那些曾向克林顿或者希拉里支付私人演讲费的实体的决策就更是如此。
Potential conflicts would not just feed the Republican mill.
潜在的利益冲突不仅会给共和党人提供攻击把柄。
If a Clinton-appointed regulator dismissed some charge or other against Goldman Sachs, would the Democratic left believe it? If she approved a hefty arms sale to a Gulf state, could it be taken at face value?
如果希拉里任命的监管机构驳回对高盛(Goldman Sachs)的这样那样的指控，左翼民主党人会不会信服？如果她批准了对某个海湾国家进行大规模军售，人们是否会不加猜疑地看待这个决定？
It is not too late for Mrs Clinton to promise to mothball the foundation.
希拉里现在承诺搁置基金会活动还不算太晚。
The longer she leaves it the harder it will become.
她拖延得越久，局面就会变得越困难。
It is not just her husband’s pride that is at stake, or her daughter’s future.
这不仅关乎她丈夫的荣誉，或者她女儿的未来。
This is about her ability to govern America.
这关乎她有没有能力治理美国。
