联合国秘书长竞选中的俄美博弈

After Months of speculation, the race to become the next UN Secretary-General has reached the point at which support for the official contenders is being tested where it really counts.

在经历了数月的猜测之后，联合国(UN)秘书长的竞选已达到这样一个节点：对正式竞选者的支持正在关键地方受到考验。

Two rounds of straw balloting, in which countries are invited to “encourage” or “discourage” the candidacy of each nominee, have already been held by the Security Council.

联合国安理会(UN Security Council)已主持过两轮意向性投票，即邀请各国选择“鼓励”或“不鼓励”每位被提名人竞选。

The US candidate of choice is Susanna Malcorra, the current foreign minister of Argentina and former chief of staff to Ban Ki-moon.

而美国青睐的候选人则是阿根廷现任外长、曾任潘基文(Ban Ki-moon)幕僚长的苏珊娜•马尔科拉(Susanna Malcorra)。

Unless something significant changes, the Security Council may need to find a compromise candidate. The most obvious solution would be to rally behind a woman from eastern Europe, of which there are only two left in the field following the withdrawal of Vesna Pusic, Croatian foreign minister.

除非出现重大变化，否则联合国安理会可能需要找到一位折中的候选人。最明显的解决办法将是支持一位来自东欧的女性候选人——在克罗地亚前外长韦斯娜•普希奇(Vesna Pusic)退出竞选之后，符合这种条件的只有两位候选人了。

One is Natalia Gherman, foreign minister of Moldova, and the other is Irina Bokova, the current head of Unesco. With only three encourages and 10 discourages at the last time of asking, Gherman’s support base is probably too narrow.

一位是摩尔多瓦前外交部长纳塔利娅•盖尔曼(Natalia Gherman)，另一位是联合国教科文组织(Unesco)现任总干事伊琳娜•博科娃(Irina Bokova)。盖尔曼在上一次的投票中获得了3票鼓励和10票不鼓励，她的支持基础可能过于狭窄。博科娃获得了7票鼓励和7票不鼓励，形势看起来更为有利。

Bokova looks better placed with seven encourages and seven discourages. A former Nato fellow, educated both in Russia and in the US, she is known to have personal support within Hilary Clinton’s inner circle and constructive working relations with Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister.

博科娃曾经在北约访学，并在俄罗斯和美国接受过教育，据悉她获得了希拉里•克林顿核心圈子的个人支持，而且还与俄罗斯外长谢尔盖•拉夫罗夫(Sergei Lavrov)有建设性的工作关系。

A lot has changed in the way that the UN chooses its Secretary-General. The process is more open and competitive than ever before.

联合国挑选秘书长的方式发生了巨大变化。这一过程比以往任何时候都更加开放和竞争激烈。

Yet it remains the case that the strongest candidate is often the one that engenders least opposition within the P5 rather than the greatest support among the UN membership as a whole.

然而，有一点没有变：最有力的候选人往往是在5个常任理事国中引起最小反对的候选人，而不是在所有联合国成员国中获得最多支持的候选人。

That may offend our understanding of how elections are supposed to work, but it was the basis on which the UN was founded. Better to bind the most powerful nations in by giving them the power of veto than risk going the way of the League of Nations.

这可能与我们对选举运作机制的理解相悖，但这是联合国建立的基础。与其冒险重蹈国际联盟(League of Nations)的覆辙，不如通过给予实力最强的国家否决权而将它们绑在一起。