韩国部署萨德影响重大 民众抗议无效

South Korea’s plan to deploy a US-built missile shield furnishes it with a crucial level of defence against Kim Jong Un, a capricious dictator whose nuclear armed North Korean regime releases mocked-up videos of Seoul being hit by Pyongyang’s rocket attacks. But while the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence system (Thaad) is a legitimate defensive option for South Korea, it is also seen as a threat by China, with whom Seoul has been assiduously improving relations in recent years.

韩国部署美制反导系统的计划，为韩提供了一种防范朝鲜反复无常的独裁者金正恩(Kim Jong Un)打击的重要手段。拥有核武装的朝鲜政权，发布了数段模拟首尔遭朝方火箭袭击的视屏。不过，虽然对韩国来说“末段高空区域防御系统”（THAAD，简称：萨德）是个正当的防御选择，但它也被中国视为一种威胁。而近些年来，首尔方面一直在努力改善对华关系。

China’s position is not without justification. Thaad’s radar systems, though ostensibly pointed toward the threat from the North, are also capable of looking deep into Chinese territory, thus providing Seoul — and potentially its ally, Washington — with an important source of intelligence. In addition, Beijing is worried that Thaad could form part of a broad regional American missile shield that would constrain China’s strategic ambitions and room for manoeuvre.

中国的立场不无道理。萨德的雷达系统虽然表面上指向来自朝鲜的威胁，但它也有能力窥探中国大片领土的情况，从而为首尔——可能还有其盟友华盛顿——提供重要的情报来源。此外，北京方面还担心萨德可能成为一个广泛的区域性美国反导系统的组成部分，制约中国的战略抱负以及回旋余地。

While both South Korea and China have a case, it must be recognised that Seoul’s imperative for self-defence against an increasingly unhinged regime in Pyongyang is the greater. No country should be denied such legitimate defence needs.

虽然韩国和中国各有其道理，但必须认识到的一点是，韩方防御日益反复无常的平壤政权的迫切性要更大一些。任何国家都不应被剥夺这种正当防卫需求。

China’s leaders must also recognise their share of responsibility for the stand-off. Since taking office in 2013, South Korean president, Park Geun-hye, has gone to great lengths to court China — her country’s biggest export market but also the sole ally and principal underwriter of the bellicose North Korean regime.

中国领导人还必须认识到，他们对这种对峙负有一定责任。韩国总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)自2013年上台以来一直不遗余力地向中国示好。中国不仅是韩国最大的出口市场，也是好战的朝鲜政权的唯一盟友和主要靠山。

Her outreach to Beijing has largely been met by one-sided demands in a pattern that has been repeated in much of China’s foreign relations. Beijing’s reluctance to rein in its recalcitrant client state has left Ms Park with diminished options and in effect forced her to turn to the Americans for help. Washington’s past willingness to show sensitivity to Beijing’s concerns has been sorely tested by the latter’s belligerent moves in the region, particularly in the South China Sea.

朴槿惠对中国的主动接触大多只换来一堆单向要求，中国在其许多对外关系中都重复着这种模式。北京方面不愿约束其桀骜不驯的附庸国，令朴槿惠的选择越来越少，实际上迫使她转向美国寻求帮助。而华盛顿以往对北京方面的关切表现出理解的意愿，已受到后者在该地区、尤其是在南中国海好战之举的严峻考验。

The more China seeks to assert its dominance in the region, the more likely it is to push neighbouring countries into closer military ties with the US. This has been happening for years but it is accelerating as China’s leaders appear to view any accommodation as a sign of weakness and an opportunity to push their claims harder.

中国越是试图确立其在该地区的主导地位，就越有可能促使邻国与美国结成更紧密的军事联系。这种趋势已存在多年，但目前正在加速，因为中国领导人似乎将一切迁就中国的举措都视为一种示弱的信号和更有力推进中方主张的机会。

If Beijing responds to Seoul’s deployment of Thaad with an economic boycott or other punitive measures, as many in South Korea now fear, it would be a further strategic miscalculation. Such a move could promote closer relations between America’s two regional allies, South Korea and Japan, overcoming antipathies in Seoul that stem from the colonial period and frustrating Beijing’s longstanding policy of divide and rule.

如果北京方面对韩国部署“萨德”报以经济制裁或其他惩罚措施——韩国许多人士目前有这种担忧——那将是进一步的战略误判。此举可能会促使美国的两个地区盟友——韩国与日本——加强关系，令首尔方面克服源于殖民时期的对日本的厌恶，挫败北京方面长期以来的分而治之政策。

Following the historic ruling by an international tribunal that negated many of China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, this is a moment for all sides to realise that strategic tensions have escalated to dangerous levels.

在一个国际仲裁庭作出历史性裁决、判定中国在南中国海的许多领土主张无效后，各方现在应意识到战略紧张局势已升级到危险的水平。

The time has come for Washington and Beijing to begin serious negotiations that seek to accommodate the concerns of the US and its allies while recognising the legitimate aspirations of the region’s rising superpower.

华盛顿和北京是时候展开认真的谈判了，一方面要照顾美国及其盟友的关切，另一方面也应承认该地区正在崛起的超级大国的合理抱负。

The millions that died in the Korean war in the early 1950s serve as a harrowing reminder of the costs of strategic inflexibility between great powers. The longer the US and China wait to negotiate in the spirit of compromise, the less able they may become to retreat from a path that risks leading to military confrontation.

20世纪50年代初的朝鲜战争造成上百万人丧生，这一惨痛的事实提醒人们，大国之间缺乏战略灵活性会造成多大的代价。美国和中国应尽早本着妥协的精神进行谈判，双方拖得越晚，就越难以从可能通向军事对抗的道路上后撤。