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莫迪寻求美国支持印度加入核俱乐部

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Of all Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s relationships with international leaders since taking power two years ago, none has been more striking than his so-called “bromance” with US President Barack Obama.

莫迪寻求美国支持印度加入核俱乐部

在印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi,上图右)自两年前上台以来与所有国际领导人的关系中,没有比他与美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama,上图左)所谓的“兄弟情”更引人注目的了。

Defying fears of a frosty encounter, the two leaders’ first meeting shortly after Mr Modi’s May 2014 election victory was a huge success. US-India relations had been faltering but Mr Modi found in Mr Obama a willing partner to reinvigorate them, given Washington’s “pivot” to Asia and its efforts to counter China’s growing influence in the region.

莫迪在2014年5月赢得大选之后不久,与奥巴马举行了首次会晤。外界曾担心此次会晤将气氛冷淡,但会晤取得了巨大成功。此前,美印关系一直磕磕绊绊,但鉴于华盛顿方面有意将战略重心“转向”亚洲,并努力对抗中国在该地区日益上升的影响力,莫迪发现奥巴马有意与自己合作,改善两国之间的关系。

Mr Modi is set to land in the US on Monday for a visit that will include his seventh face-to-face meeting with Mr Obama. His trip comes as India seeks membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which sets global rules for international trade in nuclear energy technology.

莫迪将于本周一造访美国,其间将与奥巴马展开第七次当面会晤。在他访美之际,印度正寻求加入核供应国集团(Nuclear Suppliers Group),后者为核能技术的国际贸易制定全球规则。

New Delhi is looking to the US to help overcome resistance from China — which vies with India's neighbour Pakistan as its key regional rival — and several others with strong anti-nuclear weapons policies, to shepherd India into the club.

新德里方面希望美国出手相助,克服来自中国以及其他多个实行严厉反核武政策的国家的阻力,指引印度加入核供应国集团。中国和印度的邻国巴基斯坦都是印度主要的地区竞争对手。

Indian nuclear tests in 1998 prompted Pakistan to conduct its own days later. Since then an arms race between the two, neither of which is a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, has led each to amass a stockpile of more than 100 warheads.

印度在1998年进行了核试验,促使巴基斯坦不久后也进行了核试验。自那以来,两国间的军备竞赛促使它们分别积累了逾100枚核弹头——两国均未签署核不扩散条约。

But India also has ambitious plans to expand its nuclear energy capacity, something the US supports as a means of meeting the country’s power needs while limiting its contribution to global warming.

但印度也有扩大核能产能的宏伟计划,美国支持该计划,因为该计划可在限制印度碳排放的同时满足印度的电力需求。

Membership in the NSG — set up in response to the country’s first test of an atomic weapon in 1974 — would be the final step in a protracted US-led process to rehabilitate India from its erstwhile nuclear pariah status.

在美国主导的让印度摆脱昔日“核贱民”地位的漫长过程中,印度加入核供应国集团将是最后一步。核供应国集团是为应对印度1974年首次试验核武器而成立的。

“Once India gets into this, it will complete India’s integration into the global nuclear order,” says C Raja Mohan, director of Carnegie India. “The NSG write the rules for how to run nuclear commerce in the world. India will be part of the management of the system.”

卡内基印度中心(Carnegie India)主任C•拉贾•莫汉(C. Raja Mohan)表示:“一旦加入核供应国集团,印度融入全球核秩序的进程就将完成。核供应国集团制定着全球核商业的运营规则。印度将成为该体系的管理者之一。”

The idea of Mr Obama batting for New Delhi at the Nuclear Suppliers Group was hardly contemplated when the two first met in September 2014, after the US lifted a decade-long ban on Mr Modi visiting the US, imposed in response to deadly religious riots in Gujarat state when Mr Modi was chief minister.

当2014年9月奥巴马与莫迪首次会晤的时候,几乎没人想过奥巴马会争取让印度加入核供应国集团。那时,美国刚刚取消了禁止莫迪入境的禁令——此前,因莫迪在担任古吉拉特邦首席部长时该邦发生严重宗教骚乱,他在长达十年的时间里被美国禁止入境。

US-India defence co-operation was in effect frozen after the 2013 arrest of an Indian diplomat in New York for alleged visa fraud. Meanwhile, US businesses were fed up with India’s red tape and sluggish reform. Some feared Mr Modi’s resentment at his past exclusion from the US would poison his relations with Washington.

2013年,印度一名外交官因涉嫌签证欺诈在纽约被捕。在那之后,美印防务合作实际上降至冰点。与此同时,在印的美国企业对印度的官僚作风和拖沓的改革已经忍无可忍。一些人曾担心,莫迪会对过去被美国禁止入境的事情怀恨在心,从而无法与华盛顿方面和睦相处。

Instead, Mr Modi made clear he was eager to do business, dramatically changing the tenor of the bilateral relationship, including reviving stalled security and military co-operation.

然而,莫迪明确表示,他渴望与美国发展商业关系,彻底改变印美双边关系基调,包括恢复中断的安全和军事合作。

“There’s never before been this kind of intense bilateral engagement of the kind that we have witnessed in the last two years,” says Mr Mohan.

莫汉表示:“我们过去两年里见证的那种密切的双边往来,是前所未有的。”

While Mr Modi is in Washington, US and Indian forces, along with the Japanese, will be in the midst of their most complex joint military exercise ever — focused on anti-submarine operations in the Sea of Japan.

当莫迪在华盛顿访问的时候,美印军队以及日本军队将会展开它们有史以来最复杂的联合军事演习——演习重点是在日本海(Sea of Japan)的反潜行动。

“What Modi has demonstrated in his engagement with the US over the past two years is that the debates that were occurring in India about the centrality of the US to Indian foreign policy have been settled — at least as far as this government is concerned,” says Ashley Tellis, a former White House official who is now with the Carnegie Endowment.

现在就职于卡内基基金会(Carnegie Foundation)的前白宫官员阿什利•泰利斯(Ashley Tellis)表示:“莫迪过去两年与美国打交道时的表现已经表明,印度国内围绕印度外交政策是否应以美国为核心的辩论已经了结——至少就本届政府而言是如此。”

This Indian government, Mr Tellis says, “very clearly sees the US as being indispensable to Indian success, both in strategic and economic terms”.

泰利斯表示,本届印度政府“显然认为,印度要想在战略和经济两方面走向成功,是离不开美国的”。

In Washington the leaders will discuss issues including climate change and clean energy, security and defence, and unresolved trade issues. The governments are close to an agreement on military logistics co-operation and trying to complete a deal for co-production of components for aircraft carriers and jet engines.

在华盛顿,两国领导人将会讨论气候变化和清洁能源、安全和防务以及未解决的贸易问题等事宜。两国政府还接近就军事后勤合作达成协议,并正努力达成一项合作生产航母和喷气发动机部件的协议。

New Delhi, which aims to ramp up its nuclear power capacity over the next decade, is also finalising a deal with US-based Westinghouse Electric, owned by Japan’s Toshiba Electric, for the construction of nuclear power plants in South India.

因有意在今后十年提升印度的核能产能,新德里方面还将与总部位于美国的西屋电气(Westinghouse Electric)达成协议,在印度南部建设核电站。西屋电气是日本东芝(Toshiba)旗下子公司。

It will be the first concrete plan for a US-based nuclear power company to build in India since the signing of the groundbreaking bilateral nuclear deal between the two governments a decade ago.

这将是自两国政府十年前开创性地签署双边核协议以来,首个由总部位于美国的核能公司在印度建造核电站的具体计划。

However, despite the bilateral strides, Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, says US business are still complaining about red tape, investment limits and other protectionist measures in India.

然而,尽管双边关系取得巨大进展,但美国参议院外交关系委员会(Senate Foreign Relations Committee)主席、参议员鲍勃•科克(Bob Corker)表示,美国企业仍在抱怨印度的官僚作风、投资限制以及其他保护主义措施。

“The rhetoric has far outpaced the reforms,” Mr Corker said at a recent committee hearing on the bilateral relationship, warning of what he feared was a “widening expectations gap” between the two governments.

科克在最近举行的美印双边关系听证会上表示:“改革说得多,做得少。”科克警告称,他担心的是两国政府间“心理预期的差距日益扩大”。

But Sadanand Dhume, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, says US officials are still generally upbeat about the prospects of progress with India.

但美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)常驻研究员萨达南德•杜梅(Sadanand Dhume)表示,美国官员仍普遍对美印关系取得进展的前景感到乐观。

“People in the US government and corporations are still measuring Modi against the last two years of the previous administration,” Mr Dhume said. “So this government comes across as energetic, focused and filled with the can-do spirit.”

杜梅表示:“美国政府和企业界人士仍在用上届印度政府最后两年的表现为标准,来衡量莫迪。因此可以说,这届印度政府显得充满活力、专注、有魄力。”