尼日利亚为何流传还我腐败之说

In Nigeria, there is a hashtag doing the rounds: #BringBack-Corruption. A tongue-in-cheek repudiation of the anti-corruption drive being spearheaded by President Muhammadu Buhari, the campaign nevertheless reflects real anger at rising hardship.

在尼日利亚，有一个正在迅速流传的话题标签：#还我腐败#(#BringBack-Corruption)。这是对尼日利亚总统穆罕默杜•布哈里(Muhammadu Buhari)发起的反腐行动的戏谑的批评，尽管如此，这一批评的确反映出他们对尼日利亚日益加剧的困境的真切愤怒。

Never mind that the main culprit of Nigeria’s woes is the price of oil: at $40 a barrel, a big comedown for a mono-commodity state whose cronies, schemers and skimmers have grown accustomed to the $100-a-barrel lifestyle. Not a few Nigerians, even those too poor and too removed from power to leech off the petro-economy, are blaming Mr Buhari’s war on graft for their misfortune.

没有人在意的是，造成尼日利亚困境的罪魁祸首其实是油价：现在的油价是每桶40美元，这让这个依赖单一大宗商品的国家非常落魄（这个国家的当权者的亲信、阴谋家和揩油者已经习惯了油价处于每桶100美元时的生活方式）。相当多的尼日利亚人，甚至是那些极度贫困、极度无权无势以至于无法从石油经济中捞油水的人，都指责布哈里的反腐斗争导致了他们的困境。

“With corruption a bag of pure water was N80. Without corruption a bag of pure water is N150 #BringBack-Corruption”, goes a typical refrain. Another highlights one company’s efforts to wring more profit from a shrivelling market. “Titus Sardine started with 4 fishes, it reduced to 3. Now it’s 2. In years to come, you’ll open Sardine and see ‘Try Again, No fish this time’ #BringBackCorruption.”

“有腐败的时候一袋纯净水要80奈拉。没有腐败的时候一袋纯净水要150奈拉#还我腐败#”，这是一条具有代表性的抱怨。另一条抱怨表明一家公司从萎缩的市场中挤出多一点利润的尝试。“Titus牌沙丁鱼罐头最开始一罐里头有4条鱼，然后减少到了3条。现在有2条。未来几年，你打开沙丁鱼罐头以后会看到‘再试一次，这次没有鱼’ #还我腐败#”。

Mr Buhari has indeed made the pursuit of corruption, along with the fight against Boko Haram terrorists, his biggest priority, though the link with rising prices or diminishing fish portions is not entirely obvious. Despite there being little if any direct correlation, many say that a whole system once lubricated by under-the-table money has simply seized up.

布哈里的确将打击腐败和博科哈拉姆(Boko Haram)恐怖分子放在了首位——尽管这和物价上升或者鱼肉份量减少之间的联系并不明显。直接联系即使有的话，也很微弱，但许多人说，整个曾经靠台面下资金的润滑得以运转的体制如今已经停止运作。

Mr Buhari, a retired general, ran the country in the early 1980s after seizing power the old-fashioned way — in a military coup. He also railed against the endemic corruption that made Nigeria notorious, even in Africa. Whatever traction he gained during two years of military rule was quickly lost. Levels of state theft reached vertiginous heights under subsequent leaders.

退役将军布哈里曾在上世纪80年代初治理过这个国家，当时他是通过一种老派的方式——军事政变上台的。那一次他也曾怒斥尼日利亚猖獗的腐败，该国的腐败即便在非洲也是臭名昭著的。布哈里在那为期两年的军事统治中取得的任何成果后来很快都消失了。在后来数任领导人的统治下，盗窃国家财产的猖獗程度达到令人发指的水平。

Now, after his surprise win in last year’s election, Mr Buhari is having another go. Under his direction, state prosecutors have gone after several high-ranking members of the previous administration of Goodluck Jonathan, though the former president, who had the grace to quit office when electors booted him out, is assumed to be safe from prosecution.

去年意外在选举中获胜的布哈里正在进行又一次尝试。在他的指令下，尼日利亚检方已经起诉了前总统古德勒克•乔纳森(Goodluck Jonathan)领导的上一届政府中的多名高官，尽管乔纳森本人应该会被免于起诉（他在被选民投下台时爽快地让出了位置）。

Results have been mixed. The trial of Sambo Dasuki, a former national security adviser, has run into trouble over alleged procedural irregularities, blamed by some on Mr Buhari’s military instincts and his impatience with the niceties of the law. Mr Dasuki is accused of helping to “divert” about $2.1bn meant to have been deployed in fighting Boko Haram.

结果好坏参半。对前国家安全顾问桑博•达苏基(Sambo Dasuki)的审判因为涉嫌程序失当而遇到了麻烦，一些人将其归咎于布哈里的军人本能和他对法律细节的不耐烦。达苏基被指控帮助他人“挪用”本应用于打击博科哈拉姆分子的约21亿美元的拨款。

Recent attacks on power stations and oil and gas pipelines have been blamed on saboteurs angered by Mr Buhari’s crackdown on nefarious activities. As lights flicker off and private generators cough into action, some Nigerians have taken to muttering: “When you fight corruption, corruption fights back.”

最近针对发电厂和油气管道的袭击，被认为是布哈里打击犯罪活动激起的蓄意破坏。一盏盏灯忽闪着熄灭，私人发电机轰隆隆地运转起来，一些尼日利亚人禁不住嘟囔：“你打击腐败，腐败也在还击。”

Champagne importers and car dealers, too, are complaining that officials are not spending like they used to. “There’s not enough money flowing around because everything was being financed by corruption,” says Mohammed Garuba, head of asset management at CardinalStone, a Lagos-based financial institution.

香槟进口商和汽车经销商也抱怨官员们出手不如过去阔绰了。“流转的资金不足，因为一切都是靠腐败来提供资金的，”位于拉各斯(Lagos)的金融机构CardinalStone的资产管理主管穆罕默德•加鲁巴(Mohammed Garuba)说。

Mr Buhari’s drive is laudable. It is, however, unlikely to work. He is right to end the culture of impunity by going after big offenders. But unless he can tackle the underlying causes of corruption, the victims of his campaign will be seen as arbitrary and his victories fleeting.

布哈里的反腐行动值得赞誉，然而却不太可能奏效。他为了终结犯罪者不受惩处的氛围去追究重大犯罪者的责任，这样做是正确的。但除非他能够解决腐败的病根，否则人们就会认为他的反腐行动是想针对谁就针对谁，他的胜利也将是昙花一现。

So what are the causes? Central are the opportunities presented to a parasitic coterie of middlemen, gatekeepers, rationers, arbitrageurs, licensers and fixers. They trade in scarcity, much of it of their own devising. They can get you anything, from business permits to oil blocks — if the price is right. In such a rentier system, the disincentives to actually make anything are huge. Mr Buhari has complained with only mild exaggeration that Nigeria cannot even produce toothpicks.

那么病根有哪些呢？核心问题是，由中间人、看门人、配给者、套利者、许可发放者和代人疏通者组成的寄生阶层有空子可钻。他们把“稀缺性”当生意来做，这种稀缺性大部分又是他们自己设计出来的。他们能为你搞到任何东西，从经营许可到石油区块——只要你出合适的价钱。在这样一个食利者体制中，做任何实业的障碍都是巨大的。布哈里曾经抱怨尼日利亚连牙签都造不出来——这话并不算十分夸张。

To tackle the root cause of corruption, Nigeria needs to purge rent-seeking opportunities. Nowhere are these more evident than in the oil industry. Nigeria is the largest petroleum producer in Africa. Its output of 2m barrels a day is controlled by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, a many-tentacled entity which — and you can almost see the flashing red warning sign — both regulates and participates in the oil business. The NNPC dabbles in exploration, distribution and refining, though the latter mostly consists of exporting raw crude and importing refined products at scandalous prices.

要解决腐败的病根，尼日利亚需要清除寻租的机会。这一点在石油行业再明显不过。尼日利亚是非洲最大的石油生产国。该国200万桶原油的日产量控制在尼日利亚国家石油公司(NNPC)的手中。该公司业务范围很广。它既是石油行业的监管者，也是石油行业的参与者（你几乎都能看见红色的警示灯在闪烁）。尼日利亚国家石油公司涉足开采、分销和精炼，尽管所谓的“精炼”基本就是出口原油，然后以令人发指的价格进口精炼石油产品。

The NNPC is a case study in how to sacrifice national interest to personal gain. The auditor-general recently found that it had failed to remit $16bn to the Treasury in 2014 alone. Amazingly, in oil-abundant Nigeria, most people have no electricity. One does not have to be a market fundamentalist to conclude that the NNPC needs shrinking to as small a size as possible, where zero is the optimal number.

尼日利亚国家石油公司堪称如何牺牲国家利益中饱私囊的典型案例。尼总审计长最近发现，仅2014年一年，该公司没有上交给财政部的资金就达到160亿美元。惊人的是，在石油资源丰富的尼日利亚，大多人还用不上电。一个人不必是市场原教旨主义者就能得出结论，尼日利亚国家石油公司应该尽可能削减规模，最好是彻底消失。

Few doubt Mr Buhari’s sincerity in taking on corruption. Yet punishing individual wrongdoers will not be enough. Unless he can devise coherent strategies to squeeze graft from the system, it will return with a vengeance once he has gone. Then the advocates of #BringBackCorruption will have got their way. It will, though, be a cause for anything but celebration.

很少有人质疑布哈里打击腐败的诚意。然而，惩罚单个的违法分子是不够的。除非他能够设计出连贯的策略将腐败从体制中彻底铲除，否则一旦他离开，腐败就会以变本加厉之势卷土重来。那时候支持#还我腐败#的人就如愿了。然而，这唯独不值得庆祝。