什么是国力强大的关键 Connections not armies make countries powerful

During the cold war, military might and economic clout were the measures of power that mattered. Today — in an increasingly interdependent world, among states where use of direct force against one another is all but unthinkable — connections are equally important. The most connected states, wielding influence and controlling information flows, are more useful for making things happen in the world than those that simply possess enormous armies.

在冷战时期，军事实力和经济影响力是衡量国家实力的关键指标。如今，联系同样关键——在一个日益相互依存的世界里，各国之间直接动武几乎是不可想象的。与那些只是拥有庞大军队的国家相比，能够施加影响并控制信息流动、对外联系最多的国家更能成事。

Global flows of goods, services, finance, people and data “play an ever-larger role in determining the fate of nations, companies and individuals”, according to the McKinsey consultancy, which measures these factors in its “connectedness” index. “To be unconnected is to fall behind.” Singapore, a small, open economy at the heart of global shipping and finance flows, comes top of the list — the Netherlands, the US, Germany, Ireland and the UK follow.

咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)表示，全球商品、服务、资金、人员和数据流动在决定国家、公司和个人的命运方面“扮演着越来越大的角色”。麦肯锡在其“联系度”指数中对这些因素进行了衡量。“孤立就会落后”。处于全球航运和资金流动核心的小型开放经济体新加坡名列榜首，荷兰、美国、德国、爱尔兰和英国紧随其后。

Energy still plays a big part in determining connectedness. As long as specific Middle Eastern countries are at the centre of the world’s energy flows, they exercise power over other nations vastly disproportionate to their geographical size or military and economic weight. The Opec countries proved this point in the 1970s, when energy production was much more concentrated. Today, Saudi Arabia is refusing to allow a deal to freeze oil production unless its regional rival, Iran, agrees to sign up.

能源仍然在决定联系度方面占据重要位置。只要中东国家仍处于全球能源流动的核心，它们就能够对其他国家施加与自身国土面积或者军事和经济实力极不匹配的影响力。在能源生产集中度高得多的上世纪70年代，欧佩克(OPEC)国家证明了这一点。如今，沙特拒绝达成冻结石油生产的协议，除非其地区竞争对手伊朗同意签署协议。

In the next decade, however, influence over global digital flows will grow far more important. We will see the development of sophisticated tools to impose digital sanctions, blocking some commerce, information and communication but allowing the rest.

然而，在下一个十年，对全球数字流动的影响力将变得重要得多。我们将会看到复杂工具被开发出来，用来施加数字制裁，封锁一些贸易、信息和通讯，但允许其余的贸易、信息流动和通讯进行。

Meanwhile, the lens of connectedness offers a useful perspective on the debate over British membership of the EU. Brexit advocates want to make Britain an island on the edge of the union once more — close enough to claim the benefits of connectedness but with sufficient autonomy to be truly sovereign. In fact, the connectedness index shows that the status quo provides highly beneficial codependence for both parties.

与此同时，从联系度的角度来看待英国退欧辩论，是一个有益的视角。主张英国退欧的人希望让英国再次成为欧盟(EU)边缘的一座岛屿——足够靠近以享受联系的益处，但又有足够的自治权，从而成为真正的主权国家。实际上，联系度指数表明，维持现状带来的相互依赖对双方都非常有利。

When the scores of all the member states are combined, the EU as a whole ranks third in the connectedness index, behind Singapore and the US. Without Britain the EU27 ranks fourth; Britain without the EU ranks third.

当综合所有成员国的得分的时候，欧盟在联系度指数中整体排名第三，落后于新加坡和美国。不包括英国在内的欧盟27个成员国排名第四；脱离欧盟的话，英国排名第三。

The reason is that so many of the EU27’s flows are within the union: 45 per cent of goods trade; 52 per cent of services trade; 62 per cent of foreign direct investment flows; 72 per cent of people flows; and 77 per cent of data flows. The UK presents almost the opposite profile: 70 per cent of UK trade flows are with the rest of the world, outside the EU; 86 per cent of services trade; 63 per cent of FDI flows; and 62 per cent of people flows. So membership allows Britain to participate fully in the intra-union flows that create the world’s largest economy; and provides the EU27 with a vital link to the rest of the world.

理由是，欧盟27国中有许多流动是在联盟内部发生的：45%的商品贸易、52%的服务贸易、62%的外国直接投资(FDI)流动、72%的人员流动，以及77%的数据流动。英国的情况几乎完全相反：70%的商品贸易流动、86%的服务贸易、63%的外国直接投资流动以及62%的人员流动是在英国与欧盟以外的其他国家之间发生的。因此欧盟成员国身份使得英国可以完全参与联盟内部流动——这些流动创造了全球最大的经济体——并为欧盟27国提供了与全球其他国家的关键联系。

The picture is much the same in diplomacy. As US President Barack Obama explained in his recent interview with The Atlantic, much of his foreign policy has been aimed at substituting diplomacy for force as the principal tool for getting things done in the world. His engagement, for example, has prevented Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

外交方面的情况同样如此。正如美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)最近在接受《大西洋》(The Atlantic)采访时解释的那样，他的许多对外政策的目的是用外交取代武力，作为在国际上促成事情的主要工具。例如，他的接触策略已经阻止了伊朗获得核武器。

Diplomacy is social capital; it depends on the density and reach of a nation’s diplomatic contacts. The Global Diplomacy Index, just published by Australia’s Lowy Institute for International Policy, ranks nations by the number of embassies, consulates and missions they have. The US comes first, then France, China and Russia — then the UK, ahead of the other EU states.

外交是社会资本；它依赖于一国外交联系的深度和广度。澳大利亚洛伊国际政策研究所(Lowy Institute for International Policy)刚刚发布的全球外交指数(Global Diplomacy Index)按照各国拥有的大使馆、领事馆和使团的数量进行了排名。美国排名第一，随后是法国、中国和俄罗斯，接下来是英国，排在其他欧盟国家之前。

As part of Europe, Britain has the benefit of consulates and missions in many cities where it is not now represented. Given that the Foreign Office budget has fallen by almost 20 per cent in the past five years, tapping into this network matters. Once again, however, the EU would suffer from a British exit, losing the benefit of some of the world’s most talented diplomats.

作为欧洲的一部分，目前英国虽然在许多城市没有派驻使节，但仍同样享受有领事馆和使团的益处。鉴于英国外交部预算在过去5年里下降了近20%，利用这种网络至关重要。然而，欧盟同样将因英国退出而受损，不再享受拥有一些全球最有天赋的外交官的益处。

In sum, if connectedness is indeed a critical measure of 21st-century power, Britain and the EU would both lose substantially from Brexit. John Donne knew this 400 years ago. Everyone knows the line, “No man is an island”. Few remember the next words from his Devotions Upon Emergent Occasions. “Every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main; if a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less.”

总之，如果联系度真的是21世纪实力的关键指标，英国和欧盟全都将因英国退欧而损失巨大。约翰•多恩(John Donne)400年前就知道这一点。所有人都知道“谁都不是一座岛屿”这句诗，但很少有人记得多恩的祈祷文集《丧钟为谁而鸣：生死边缘的沉思录》(Devotions Upon Emergent Occasions)中接下来的文字。“每个人都是欧洲大陆的一小块，那本土的一部分；如果一块泥巴被海浪冲掉，欧洲就小了一点 ”。

If British membership of the EU be washed away, the clod and the continent will both be diminished. Joined together, and connected to the rest of the world, they are mighty.

如果英国真的退欧，英国和欧洲都将被削弱。两者合在一起，并与其他国家紧密联系，它们都将是强大的。