经济学家多数支持英国留在欧盟 Membership of reformed EU seen as vital to economic security

David Cameron’s claim that British membership of a reformed EU is vital to Britain’s economic security is today backed by an overwhelming majority of economists in an annual Financial Times survey.

英国首相戴维愠蕓伦(David Cameron)声称，英国作为改革后欧盟(EU)一员的身份，对英国的经济安全至关重要。最近参加英国《金融时报》一项年度调查的经济学家绝大多数支持这一说法。

Regardless of the UK prime minister’s renegotiation of Britain’s terms of EU membership, most of the more than 100 economists thought economic prospects following a Brexit would be hit if voters decided to leave. Economic arguments are central to both the “in” and “out” camps as they prepare for a referendum on whether the UK should leave the EU to be held as early as June.

不管卡梅伦就英国作为欧盟成员国的条件所开展的重新谈判结果如何，在接受调查的100多名经济学家中，多数人认为，如果公投结果是英国脱离欧盟，那么在脱欧后英国经济前景将受到打击。对主张“留在欧盟”的阵营和主张“脱离欧盟”的阵营来说——双方正在为最早可能在6月举行的英国是否脱离欧盟公投做准备——经济上的理由都是核心问题。

The survey results show decisive support from economists for Britain to remain in the EU; of those surveyed, none thought a vote to leave would enhance Britain’s economic growth this year, with 67 thinking the outlook would deteriorate.

这次调查结果显示，经济学家明确支持英国留在欧盟。在受调查者中，没人认为脱欧决定会提高英国今年的经济增长率，67人认为经济前景会恶化。

Stuart Rose, former Marks and Spencer boss and chair of the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign, said: “They say that if you get 100 economists in the room you’ll get 100 different answers, but this survey more than bucks the trend.”

曾执掌玛莎百货(Marks and Spencer)、“留在欧洲更强”(Britain Stronger in Europe)的主席斯图亚特圠斯(Stuart Rose)表示：“有人说，如果房间里有100位经济学家，你会得到100个不同答案。然而，这次调查明显不一样。”

Many Tory MPs believe Mr Cameron would quit as prime minister if he failed to secure Britain’s future in the 28-member bloc. He has placed economic and national security at the centre of his argument for staying in.

许多保守党议员认为，如果卡梅伦未能确保英国未来留在欧盟，他或将辞去首相一职。卡梅伦把经济和国家安全作为支持英国留在欧盟的核心理由。

The 11th FT survey of economists, which had success a year ago in predicting the outlook for 2015, was otherwise positive about the outlook for a fourth year of decent economic growth, a continuation of ultra-low interest rates with only one rise expected. There were concerns about Britain’s trade performance, still elevated house prices and scepticism that the deficit would fall as quickly as George Osborne hoped.

这是英国《金融时报》第11次开展这项调查，一年前该调查成功地预测了2015年前景。抛开是否脱欧不谈，受访经济学家对英国连续第四年保持良好经济增长的前景、继续推行超低利率政策的可能性持积极态度（预计只有一次加息）。他们对英国贸易表现、居高不下的房价表示担忧，并怀疑英国赤字的降低会不会像乔治攠斯本(George Osborne)希望的那么快。

Brexit was top of the risks to prosperity that economists cited. For this year, there was concern that a vote to leave would cause capital to flee the UK because of the uncertainty of Britain’s place in the world that a vote to leave the EU would create. Neville Hill of Credit Suisse said a Brexit vote “could well be the catalytic event that turns the UK’s current account deficit from ‘something to worry about’ to ‘a problem’”.

在经济学家提及的英国繁荣所面临风险中，脱欧高居榜首。对于今年来说，有人担心，如果公投结果是脱离欧盟，将给英国在世界上的地位带来不确定性，从而导致资本逃离英国。瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的内维尔希尔(Neville Hill)表示，脱欧的公投结果“很可能成为催化剂，把英国的经常项目赤字从‘需要担心的事’变成‘问题’。”

Willem Buiter, chief economist of Citi, said the effect on Britain would be “dramatic”.

花旗(Citi)首席经济学家威廉姆比特(Willem Buiter)表示，脱欧对英国的影响将是“巨大的”。

“The rest of the EU would drive a very hard bargain with the UK, the City would lose most euro-related business [and] foreign direct investment into the UK would collapse. Deep recession and a financial crisis are inevitable,” he predicted.

他预计：“欧盟其他国家会与英国开展一轮非常艰难的讨价还价，金融城或将丧失大多数与欧元相关的业务，英国的外商直接投资或将大幅减少。深度衰退和金融危机将不可避免。”

But Ruth Lea, chairman of Economists for Britain, denounced what she called “baseless scaremongering” and said that given the UK’s yawning trade deficit with the rest of the EU it would be in everyone’s interest to get a trade deal after any Brexit.

但Economists for Britain董事长露丝莱亚(Ruth Lea)痛斥了她所说的“毫无根据的危言耸听”的言论，她表示，鉴于英国与欧盟其他国家不断扩大的贸易逆差，在英国脱欧后达成一项贸易协议将符合所有人的利益。

“I remember only too well how certain eminent economists warned of the potentially catastrophic dangers of not joining the euro,” she said. “But foreign investment has been resilient and the City has flourished.”

“我还清楚记得，一些知名经济学家曾警告不加入欧元区会有潜在灾难性危险，”她表示，“但外商投资一直保持弹性，金融城也欣欣向荣。”

In the medium term, where opinion in the FT survey was even more strongly opposed to exit, the concerns were that companies would no longer use Britain as a base for their European operations, investment would suffer, the City would be harmed and there was no guarantee of favourable trading relationships with other parts of the world.

中期而言，受访者反对脱欧的倾向更为强烈，一些经济学家担心企业将不再把英国作为欧洲业务总部，投资将收缩，金融城将受到影响，同时也无法保证英国与全球其他国家保持有利的贸易关系。

Some 76 economists thought leaving the EU would harm the prospects with only eight thinking the outlook would be better outside the EU and 18 believing it would make little difference, creating an overwhelming majority in favour of remaining in the EU.

约76名经济学家认为，退出欧盟将损害英国前景，只有8位经济学家认为，退出欧盟后的前景将会变得更好，18位经济学家认为脱欧与否没有多大差别，这表明大多数经济学家支持留在欧盟。

Charlie Bean of the London School of Economics and formerly deputy governor of the Bank of England said: “The continuing uncertainty surrounding the terms of access of UK firms to the EU market mean that this dampening effect on investment could be expected to last for several years.”

前英国央行(BOE)副行长、目前在伦敦政治经济学院(London School of Economics)任职的查理比恩(Charlie Bean)表示：“围绕英国企业进入欧盟市场的准入条款持续存在的不确定性意味着，对投资的削减效应料将持续多年。”

Many economists noted, however, that the exact terms of any separation would be crucial to outcomes and these were highly uncertain.

然而，很多经济学家指出，脱欧的具体条款对结果至关重要，而这些条款非常不确定。

“The impact on medium-term prospects is more difficult to predict as it does depend on the precise post-exit arrangements with the EU, as this will determine the degree to which we lose the benefits of belonging to a large, relatively integrated market,” said Sushil Wadhwani, director of Wadhwani Asset Management.

瓦德瓦尼资产管理公司(Wadhwani Asset Management)董事苏希尔瓦德瓦尼(Sushil Wadhwani)表示：“对中期前景的影响较难预测，因为这依赖于脱欧后与欧盟之间的具体安排，这将决定我们隶属于一个相对一体化的巨大市场的好处会损失多少。”

The minority of economists who favoured Brexit cited additional freedoms from Europe as a potential spur to growth and prosperity. Ryan Bourne of the Institute of Economic Affairs said: “It’s clear that EU membership is neither a necessary or sufficient condition for good economic growth — domestic policy is far more important.”

支持退出欧盟的少数经济学家认为脱欧后获得的更多自由可能会促进增长和繁荣。经济事务研究所(Institute of Economic Affairs)的瑞恩伯恩(Ryan Bourne)表示：“显然，欧盟成员国身份既非良好经济增长的必要条件也非充分条件，国内政策要重要得多。”

Some other economists feared that there was no guarantee that Britain would legislate better regulations if it were outside the EU, so additional freedoms might be dangerous.

其他一些经济学家担心，如果英国脱离欧盟，英国未必会制定更好的法规，因此新增加的自由可能会带来危险。