IMF任命新首席经济学家 Former Obama aide to be IMF chief economist

A former economic adviser to US president Barack Obama and advocate of fiscal integration in the eurozone has been appointed as the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist.

美国总统巴拉克奥巴马(Barack Obama)的前经济顾问、欧元区财政一体化的倡导者已被任命为国际货币基金组织(IMF)首席经济学家。

Maurice Obstfeld will replace Olivier Blanchard in early September after spending a year advising Mr Obama. A former head of the economics department at the University of California, Berkeley, Mr Obstfeld is known for his views on the need for more eurozone integration, the dangers of imbalances in trade and investment, and the importance of strengthening global economic governance.

在担任奥巴马经济顾问一年后，莫里斯攠布斯特费尔德(Maurice Obstfeld)将于今年9月初接替奥利维耶布朗夏尔(Olivier Blanchard)出任IMF首席经济学家。奥布斯特费尔德曾是美国加州大学伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)经济系的一名负责人。他以有关加深欧元区一体化的必要性、贸易和投资不平衡的危害、以及加强全球经济治理的重要性等观点而闻名。

Such convictions are bound to shape the IMF’s thinking as it reassesses its role in the Greek sovereign debt crisis and stands ready to provide assistance to emerging markets as the US Federal Reserve edges closer to raising interest rates. “He is known around the globe for his work on international economics and is considered one of the most influential macroeconomists in the world,” said Christine Lagarde, the fund’s chief.

在IMF重新评估其在希腊主权债务危机中扮演的角色、并准备在美联储(Fed)日益临近加息之际为新兴市场国家提供协助的背景下，奥布斯特费尔德的这些观点必定将影响IMF的想法。“他以在国际经济学方面的研究而举世闻名，被视为世界上最有影响力的宏观经济学家之一，”IMF总裁克里斯蒂娜拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示。

One of Mr Obstfeld’s most revealing documents is a policy paper he wrote for the European Commission in 2013. In this paper, Mr Obstfeld warned how currency unions such as the eurozone faced a so-called “trilemma”: they cannot pursue cross-border financial integration and maintain stability while protecting national fiscal independence. “This financial/fiscal trilemma lies at the heart of the eurozone crisis that began in 2009, and it provides a useful organisational structure for... reforms needed to preserve financial stability while also preserving a unified euro area financial market,” Mr Obstfeld wrote.

奥布斯特费尔德最引人深思的著述之一是他在2013年为欧盟委员会(European Commission)撰写的一篇政策论文。在论文中，他警告称，欧元区这样的货币联盟面临所谓的“三难困境”：它们无法在保护国家财政独立性的同时追求跨境金融一体化并维持金融稳定。“这种金融/财政三难困境是2009年开始的欧元区危机的核心，这一困境提供了一个有用的组织架构……用来实施必要的改革，以便维持金融稳定、同时维持一个统一的欧元区金融市场，”奥布斯特费尔德写道。

He argued the eurozone should build a banking union, including a deposit insurance scheme that would encompass a centralised government backstop — a position resisted by Germany. “A complete banking union would ... at least some fiscal capacity,” he wrote. “Even when countries are fiscally healthy, their ex post willingness to contribute resources in case of a big crisis is questionable, so an effective banking union might require some independent taxation capacity.”

他主张，欧元区应该建立一个银行业联盟，包括含有集中化政府担保的存款保险制度——这一立场遭到德国的反对。“一个完整的银行业联盟将……至少需要一定的财政能力。”他写道，“即使国家财政状况良好，从过去的经验看，它们在发生重大危机时贡献资源的意愿也是值得怀疑的，因此一个有效的银行业联盟可能需要一定的独立征税能力。”

Mr Obstfeld believes the eurozone should be prepared for a greater level of fiscal and political integration than eurozone leaders have allowed so far.

奥布斯特费尔德相信，欧元区应该做好准备，将财政和政治一体化推进到比欧元区领导人迄今允许的程度更深的层次。

“Parallel moves towards political union are an essential complement in ensuring that national electorates accept the legitimacy of decisions made in the common interest,” he wrote.

“为确保各国选民能够承认为共同利益所做出的决策的合法性，与政治联盟平行的举措是一种必不可少的补充，”他写道。