沙特与俄罗斯权宜联盟 Saudi's alliances show American influence fading
After King Salman of Saudi Arabia came to the throne in 2015 and allowed his favourite son and deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, to seize the main reins of power in the kingdom, the country has embarked on an assertive foreign and regional policy. The ageing and frail king’s son has upstaged the crown prince and next in line of succession, interior minister Mohammed bin Nayef. That much everyone agrees.
沙特国王萨勒曼(King Salman)2015年登上王位并让自己最喜爱的儿子、副王储穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)执掌王国主要权柄后，这个国家便走上了一条过分自信的外交和地区政策之路。老迈虚弱的国王的这个儿子抢走了王储及下一位继承人、内政大臣穆罕默德•本•纳伊夫(Mohammed bin Nayef)的风头。这些是人人都认同的。
Prince Mohammed bin Salman has accumulated surprising power, in a system where the ruling family normally seeks a careful balance between factions. MbS, as he is known in diplomatic shorthand, aged only 30 in a regime long run by men in their 70s and 80s, is defence minister and economic tsar, as well as overlord of the closely tied areas of foreign and oil policy.
在一个统治家族通常寻求派系间平衡的体制中，穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼亲王已经掌握了惊人的权力。在这个长期由七八十岁男性统治的政权中，只有30岁的穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼（外交场合常缩写为MbS)既担任国防大臣，又是经济“沙皇”，同时还主导外交与石油这两个密切相联的领域的政策。
A linear summary of foreign and defence policy in his first year would probably highlight: the Saudi-led air war against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launched last March; increased support for Sunni Islamist rebels fighting Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which is backed by Iran, Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia paramilitaries and Russia; the break-off of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran; and, in recent weeks, severing ties with Saudi political, military and media allies in Lebanon.
他主导外交与国防政策第一年的突出表现包括：以沙特为首，去年3月对伊朗支持的也门胡塞叛军进行空袭；加大对与叙利亚巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)政权作战的逊尼派伊斯兰叛军的支持力度，而阿萨德的支持者包括伊朗、真主党(Hizbollah)、黎巴嫩什叶派准军事组织及俄罗斯；中断沙特与伊朗的外交关系；并在最近几周切断了沙特与黎巴嫩在政治、军事、媒体方面的盟友关系。
What it might skip over is the budding detente between the kingdom and Vladimir Putin’s Russia, ally to all that Saudi Arabia most detests in the region — Iran, Hizbollah, and the Assad regime.
这里有可能忽略的是沙特与弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)执政的俄罗斯之间初现的关系缓和迹象，而俄罗斯是沙特在中东最痛恨的所有势力（伊朗、真主党、阿萨德政权）的盟友。
Alliances of convenience are hardly new to the Middle East. The will to power of entrenched regimes often coexists with pragmatism, making strange bedfellows of sworn enemies. But the present situation has reached unusual heights of visceral and violent antagonism in the proxy wars between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran across the region, above all in Syria. But, first, what has Saudi Arabia been up to?
对中东而言，结成“权宜联盟”并不是什么新鲜事。稳固政权的权力意志往往与实用主义并存，可以让不共戴天的仇敌变成伙伴。但当前整个地区（尤其是在叙利亚）逊尼派沙特与什叶派伊朗之间代理人战争的形势已经在出于本能的暴力对抗方面达到了不同寻常的高度。但首先，我们想问，沙特一直在忙些什么呢？
Riyadh is signalling a pullback from the war in Yemen. Saudi officials say they have destroyed a missile threat to the kingdom from their unruly southern neighbour. To many other eyes, it looks as if MbS bit off more than he could chew. Despite Riyadh unveiling an alliance of more than 30 Sunni nations to confront Iran’s designs, Egypt and Pakistan, which have the biggest armies, conspicuously declined to provide ground forces for the Saudi air war. In Syria, a Saudi threat to send in troops to support Sunni rebels proved empty.
利雅得正在发出从也门冲突抽身的信号。沙特官员表示，他们已将这个桀骜的南部邻国带来的导弹威胁摧毁。在许多其他人看来，穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼似乎有些眼高手低。尽管利雅得打造了一个由30多个逊尼派国家组成的对抗伊朗的联盟，但拥有最庞大陆军的两个国家埃及和巴基斯坦都明显拒绝为沙特的空袭提供地面部队支持。在叙利亚，沙特威胁出兵支持逊尼派叛军也被证明只是虚张声势。
The diplomatic break with Iran, and rupture with Lebanon, came after the Saudi execution in January of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a dissident Shia cleric. Riyadh reacted after the Saudi embassy in Tehran and consulate in Mashhad were attacked by mobs. Lebanon’s foreign minister, a Hizbollah-aligned Christian, declined to condemn the events — acting as more papist than the Pope given that the Iranian government itself did so. The Saudis have cancelled $3bn in aid to Lebanon’s army, stopped paying local Sunni allies and associated media, and closed the Beirut office of Al Arabiya, a TV network owned by members of the royal family.
沙特在1月处决了持不同政见的什叶派教士谢赫尼米尔•尼米尔(Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr)之后，沙特与伊朗的外交关系中断，与黎巴嫩也出现关系破裂。这是沙特驻德黑兰大使馆、驻马什哈德领事馆遭暴徒袭击后，利雅得的反应。黎巴嫩外长（一名站在真主党一边的基督徒）拒绝谴责这两起事件，要知道连伊朗政府也发出了谴责。沙特取消了对黎巴嫩军队30亿美元的援助，停止向黎巴嫩当地逊尼派盟友及相关媒体提供资金支持，并关闭了沙特王室成员拥有的电视网络——阿拉伯卫星电视台(Al Arabiya)驻贝鲁特办事处。
Yet, at the same time, Prince Mohammed bin Salman has forged what Arab officials describe as a “functional and substantive” relationship with President Putin, covering Syria, possible Saudi arms purchases from and investment in Russia , and joint attempts to stabilise oil prices by freezing output.
然而，与此同时，阿拉伯官员表示，穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼亲王与普京总统之间已经建立了“起作用的、实质性的”关系，涵盖叙利亚危机、沙特有可能从俄罗斯购买武器并在俄罗斯投资，以及共同设法通过冻结产量稳定石油价格。
On Syria, US- and Russia-led peace efforts are still stymied by Moscow’s insistence that President Assad must be part of any transition out of war — which Washington and Riyadh are ostensibly resisting. But when MbS met Mr Putin last October at the Russian Grand Prix at Sochi, he told him: “We do not care about the Assads, we care about Iran,” according to an Arab official in contact with the deputy crown prince. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said afterwards: “We now have a much clearer vision of how to move along the path of political settlement.”
叙利亚问题方面，美国和俄罗斯领导的和平努力仍受阻于莫斯科坚持阿萨德总统必须成为任何从战争向和平过渡进程的一部分，而华盛顿和利雅得对此都明确表示反对。但去年10月在索契举行的俄罗斯大奖赛(Russian Grand Prix)上见到普京时，穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼对普京说，“我们并不在乎阿萨德家族，我们在乎的是伊朗，”——一位与副王储有联系的阿拉伯官员转述称。俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖•拉夫罗夫(Sergei Lavrov)后来表示：“关于如何推进政治解决，我们现在有了更清晰的视角。”
No such settlement is likely when talks on peace resume next week in Geneva. Despite Mr Putin’s partial withdrawal from Syria last month, Russia-backed Assad forces are still on the offensive — not just against Saudi-backed rebels but now also against the jihadis of Isis, from whom they recaptured the city of Palmyra last week.
下周在日内瓦恢复和平谈判时，不大可能达成这样的政治解决方案。尽管普京上月从叙利亚撤出了部分军队，但得到俄罗斯支持的阿萨德军队仍在发动进攻——不仅打击沙特支持的叛军，如今也打击“伊斯兰国”(ISIS)圣战分子，并且上周从ISIS手中夺回了巴尔米拉城。
Some Arab sources say the Russian leader even informed MbS about his new Syrian policy before he told Mr Assad.
一些阿拉伯消息源表示，俄罗斯领导人甚至将自己新的叙利亚政策先告知穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼，然后才知会阿萨德。
Mr Putin may be signalling to Mr Assad that, unless he engages with evolving plans to end Syria’s war, Moscow could dump him. Russia, at the head of the Iran-backed axis in Syria and Iraq, is also now intersecting with the US-led coalition against Isis. Both coalitions are backing Syrian Kurdish militia fighting Isis across northern Syria. Russia’s ally Iran is de facto co-operating with the US in Iraq.
普京可能在暗示阿萨德，除非后者参与制订结束叙利亚内战的计划，否则莫斯科可能将他抛弃。在伊朗支持的包括叙利亚和伊拉克的轴心联盟中处于领导地位的俄罗斯，如今正在与美国领导的联军共同打击ISIS。这两大联盟都支持在叙利亚北部与ISIS作战的叙利亚库尔德民兵。俄罗斯的盟友伊朗实际上正在伊拉克与美国进行合作。
But Saudi Arabia’s warming ties with Russia surely speak of the waning regional influence of the US, with which the kingdom has been closely allied for 70 years. After Barack Obama started a thaw in US relations with Iran through last year’s nuclear deal, and Mr Putin stormed into a Syrian war the US president has sought to avoid, the Saudis seem to have decided to work with Moscow, in the belief that it can influence Tehran. Syria, in all its gore, is the cockpit of the current Middle East.
但沙特与俄罗斯关系回暖肯定会导致美国在该地区影响力减弱，而美国与沙特之间的亲密盟友关系已经延续70年之久。巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)通过去年签署的核协议开启了美国与伊朗的关系缓和，普京高调介入了奥巴马力图避免卷入的叙利亚内战，此后，沙特似乎已经决定与莫斯科合作，相信莫斯科可以影响德黑兰。饱受创伤的叙利亚仍是当前中东的斗鸡场。
