奥巴马访问古巴有助于提升美国地位

For once, the word “historic” is not hyperbole. Barack Obama’s visit to Havana, which began on Sunday, is the first trip by a sitting US president to Cuba in more than 88 years. More significantly, it aims to cement his 15-month-old policy of rapprochement and engagement with the island. By reversing more than half a century of bullyboy tactics, this also buttresses US standing in the region.

这一次，“历史性”这个词绝不夸张。巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)周日开始的哈瓦那之行，是在任美国总统逾88年来首次访问古巴。更具重大意义的是，此行将力求夯实奥巴马推行已15个月的与岛国古巴和解与接触的政策。通过逆转持续半个多世纪的“以大欺小”战术，此举还有助于提升美国在地区的地位。

Through executive order, Mr Obama has punched several holes in the embargo, although it can only be fully lifted by Congress. The US has removed Cuba from its list of state sponsors of terror. Commercial flights have been agreed; up to 110 a day are allowed. Travel restrictions on US visitors have been lifted.

借助行政命令，奥巴马在禁运之墙上打穿了几个洞，尽管只有美国国会才能完全解除禁运。美国已经把古巴从支持恐怖主义国家的名单上移除。有关商业航班的协议已经达成；每天允许执行多达110个航班。针对美国人访问古巴的限制已被取消。

This week, among other measures, the use of the dollar was decriminalised, obviating Cuba’s need for complex third-currency operations and so facilitating business. To the extent this also helps ordinary Cubans make their livelihood in ways that do not depend on the state, it is to be welcomed.

本周，除其他措施外，使用美元被合法化，使古巴不再需要复杂的第三种货币操作，给商业活动带来便利。此举也有助于古巴普通人以不依赖于国家的方式谋生，就此而言，这是值得欢迎的。

Most dramatically, “regime change” is no longer an objective. The island’s future, as Mr Obama has stated, is up to Cubans to decide. This also offers the only plausible parallel between Mr Obama’s trip and Calvin Coolidge’s in 1928. Back then, Coolidge sought to withdraw the US from intimate management of island affairs on the basis that if Cubans want to make difficulties for themselves, was it not fairer to let them?

最具戏剧性的是，“政权更迭”已不再是一个目标。正如奥巴马宣示的，这个岛国的未来要由古巴人来决定。这一点也提供了奥巴马此行与1928年时任美国总统卡尔文•柯立芝(Calvin Coolidge)访问古巴之行唯一可信的共同点。当年柯立芝试图撤回美国对古巴事务的密切管理，他的理由是，如果古巴人要折腾自己，让他们如愿以偿难道不是更加公平吗？

Mr Obama’s visit, though, is more than about mending ties and regaining leverage in an old cold war foe with which the US has few ties and less leverage. It is a keystone in the US’s broader approach to the region. While the Middle East and the Mediterranean rim may be a mess, US foreign policy in its own hemisphere and the Caribbean is almost blooming. The broad lesson here is the importance of the long view.

不过，奥巴马的古巴之行意义不仅在于修复关系，重新获得对一个冷战老对手的影响力；目前美国与古巴联系很少，影响力就更少了。此行是美国对该地区整体战略的一个关键。尽管中东和地中海沿岸可能一团糟，但美国在自己所在的半球以及加勒比地区的外交关系近乎硕果累累。这其中的主要收获在于长远眼光的重要性。

Thirty or so years ago, much of Latin America — from civil strife in Central America to drug wars in Colombia — seemed to be a series of intractable situations. No more.

差不多30年前，拉美大部分地区——从中美洲的内乱到哥伦比亚的毒品战争——貌似一个又一个棘手的烂摊子。局面已不再如此。

Colombia’s Marxist guerrillas, tacitly encouraged by Havana, are poised to put down their weapons. Rapprochement with Cuba also pulls out the rhetorical rug from under the feet of Venezuela’s mad-dog government, which can no longer rail convincingly about imperialism.

在哈瓦那方面心照不宣地鼓励下，哥伦比亚的马克思主义游击队正准备放下武器。美国与古巴修好，还使委内瑞拉的疯狗政府不再有理论自信，再也无法振振有词地谴责帝国主义。

Meanwhile, the forces of economic gravity are doing for other mismanaged countries in the region. Brazil’s corruption-riven government is on the point of collapse. Argentina’s recently elected president, Mauricio Macri, a pro-business centrist, has said that he wants to re-engage with the US. Mr Obama will travel there on Tuesday. Another historic trip, it will be the first bilateral US-Argentine visit in nearly 20 years.

同时，经济引力的力量正在该地区其它管理失当的国家发挥作用。在巴西，腐败缠身的政府即将崩溃。阿根廷最近当选的总统毛里西奥•马克里(Mauricio Macri)是一个亲商的中间派人士，他已表示希望与美国重新接触。奥巴马将在周二对阿根廷展开访问。那将是又一次历史性的访问，是美国与阿根廷近20年来首次双边访问。

So much for advancing US interests. What of Cuba’s? Critics complain Mr Obama has given up more to Havana than Havana has given back. Perhaps so. But tit-for-tat negotiations with Cuba’s Communist leaders would have gone nowhere, as they always have. Anyway, acting unilaterally turns the spotlight on Cuba and removes its traditional excuses for intransigence and human rights abuses. Mr Obama must press those concerns, as should others.

这些都是增进美国利益的事情。那么古巴的利益呢？批评人士抱怨，奥巴马对哈瓦那方面作出的让步，比哈瓦那方面的回馈更多。也许是这样。但是，同古巴共产党领导人进行针锋相对的谈判将会一无所成，那样的谈判历来如此。无论如何，单方面采取行动使古巴置身于聚光灯下，消除了古巴对于顽固立场和侵犯人权行为的传统借口。奥巴马必须交涉那些问题，其他人也应该这么做。

Change is coming to Cuba. The passing of its original revolutionary leaders makes it inevitable — at some point. When Air Force One leaves Havana, 11m people will still return to the dull if slowly changing routines of centralised planning and a police state.

古巴正在迎来变化。其原有的革命领袖的过世在某个时间点将使变化不可避免。当“空军一号”离开哈瓦那之后，1100万古巴人仍将回到中央计划和警察国家体制下沉闷（如果说在慢慢变化的话）的日常生活。

But even if it takes the patience of Job, their lives now have a better chance of improving too.

但即使这需要约伯(Job)的耐心，至少他们的生活现在有了改善的更好机会。