如何理解一团乱麻的叙利亚冲突
The Middle East reminds us that there is nothing so unholy as a holy war. Europe learnt this in the 17th century. Confessional competition between Catholicism and Protestantism fused with temporal rivalry to provoke the Thirty Years’ War among the continent’s leading powers.
中东局势提醒我们：没有什么比圣战更加邪恶。欧洲曾在17世纪领教过这一点。当时，天主教和新教之间的宗教角力与世俗对抗纠缠在一起，使欧洲大陆领先强国之间爆发了一场旷日持久的战争——“三十年战争”(Thirty Years' War)。
The fighting, bloodier than any previously seen, ended when raison d’état triumphed over theology. The Peace of Westphalia in 1648 marked the end of Europe’s great wars of religion. This should tell us something about the present conflict in Syria.
这场空前血腥的战争一直到世俗权力战胜神学权力的那一刻才宣告结束。1648年签署的《威斯特伐利亚和约》(Peace of Westphalia)标志着欧洲宗教大战的终结。这应该可以给我们一些关于当前叙利亚冲突的启示。
The wholesale slaughter that followed could not have been imagined in 1618, when mainly Protestant Bohemia rose up against the Catholic Holy Roman Empire. The subsequent wars — there were several — drew in Habsburg Spain and Austria, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Poland, Russia, Denmark and the big German principalities. England, Scotland, the Ottoman Empire and Russia all claimed walk-on parts.
当1618年信奉新教的波西米亚(Bohemia)奋起反抗信奉天主教的神圣罗马帝国(Holy Roman Empire)时，没人想象得到后来发生的大规模屠杀。随后的多场战争将哈布斯堡王朝(Habsburg)统治下的西班牙和奥地利、法国、荷兰、瑞典、波兰、俄罗斯、丹麦以及德意志各大公国都拖入其中。英格兰、苏格兰、奥斯曼帝国(Ottoman Empire)以及俄罗斯也都声称自己是这场战争的“次要演员”。
The fighting was mostly on German soil, but the battles were between armies of foreign mercenaries. As befits wars conducted in the name of God, cruelty and brutality were endemic. By many accounts, the population of Germany was cut by a third or more. Torture and mass burnings of alleged witches were commonplace.
虽然这场战争主要在德意志的领土上进行，但参加战斗的都是由外国雇佣军组成的军队。就像所有以上帝之名进行的战争，残忍与暴行无处不在。据多方记载，德意志地区的人口减少了三分之一或者更多。酷刑以及集中烧死据称的女巫之类的现象司空见惯。
For Catholic and Protestant, read Shia and Sunni. There are, I am sure, a hundred differences between the horrors that engulfed Europe and the flames consuming Syria. There are also uncomfortable coincidences. The brutality flowing from the intertwining of the spiritual and territorial is one; the misfortune of a patch of ground — Germany then, Syria now — in becoming a battlefield for outside powers is another.
当年的天主教和新教的角色，可以对应于如今伊斯兰教的什叶派与逊尼派的角色。我相信，当年席卷欧洲的恐怖场面与如今吞噬叙利亚的战火之间存在着千差万别的不同。但也有一些令人不安的一致性：宗教与领土问题相互纠缠所产生的暴行；以及不幸沦为外部强国的战场——彼时是德意志，如今是叙利亚。
The Thirty Years’ War began as an assertion of independence by the Protestant princes of Bohemia and Germany against the Catholic Holy Roman Empire. But it was also about France’s fear of encirclement by the Habsburgs of Spain and Austria, the Dutch struggle for independence from Spain, Sweden’s bid to assert itself, Poland’s eclipse and Denmark’s last throw as a big power. Half-a-dozen other states also claimed a vital national interest in the outcome.
当信奉新教的波西米亚及德意志的大公们表达他们反抗信奉天主教的神圣罗马帝国的独立性时，“三十年战争”开始了。但这场战争也牵涉到法国担忧被哈布斯堡王朝的西班牙和奥地利包围；荷兰争取从西班牙获得独立；瑞典确立本国地位的努力；波兰的衰落以及丹麦作为大国的最后一搏。另外六个国家也在战争的结局中看到对自己至关重要的国家利益。
Confessional loyalties were sometimes elbowed aside by secular ambitions. Thus Catholic France joined with Protestant Sweden against its co-religionists in Spain and Austria — just, perhaps, as Shia Iran now finds advantage in allying itself with Sunni Hamas. Protestant Denmark fought at different moments on either side of the confessional divide. Competing Lutherans and Calvinists sometimes questioned if Rome was the real enemy.
宗教信仰有时会让位于世俗野心。于是，信奉天主教的法国与信奉新教的瑞典联手，对抗同样信奉天主教的西班牙与奥地利——也许就像什叶派的伊朗现在发现与逊尼派的哈马斯结盟可以获得优势一样。信奉新教的丹麦在不同的时刻加入不同的宗教阵营。相互冲突的路德教徒与加尔文教徒有时怀疑罗马教廷是不是自己真正的敌人。
By 1648, the wars had recast the geopolitical balance. France emerged a victor, the Holy Roman Empire a loser. Westphalia became a foundation for the modern European state. If there was a thread running through the various treaties that settled the territorial disputes it was that the confessional choices of states should no longer be a casus belli. Today’s Middle East, with the same combustible mix of theological and earthly rivalry, is a long way from reaching such an understanding.
到1648年，这场战争已经重新确立了地缘政治平衡。法国崛起为赢家，神圣罗马帝国败亡。《威斯特法利亚和约》成为现代欧洲国家的根基。如果有一条贯穿于解决领土争端的各种条约的主线，那就是国家的宗教选择不应再成为开战理由。当今的中东——同样是宗教与世俗对抗的易爆混合体——距离达成这样的谅解还很遥远。
One way of looking at the fighting in Syria is an uprising of the majority Sunni against the Alawite, or quasi-Shia, regime of Bashar al-Assad. This is the obverse, you could say, of what happened in Iraq: the fanatics of the self-styled Islamic State have prospered with the support of Iraqi Sunnis dispossessed by the toppling of Saddam Hussein.
从某种角度看，叙利亚内战是占人口多数的逊尼派对巴沙尔阿萨德(Bashar al-assad)的阿拉维派（或称“准什叶派”）政权的反抗。你可以说，这与伊拉克的情况正好相反：自封伊斯兰国(ISIS)的狂热分子之所以能做大，是得益于因萨达姆侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)倒台而被剥夺了权利的伊拉克逊尼派的支持。
The dividing lines on the ground are important. But, as in 17th-century Europe, what has kept the fires burning has been the involvement of outside powers. Syria has become the arena for the long-simmering regional contest between (Sunni) Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies on one side, and (Shia) Iran on the other. Russia sees a vital national interest in sustaining the regime in Damascus; Turkey in overthrowing it.
陆上的分界线很重要。但正如17世纪的欧洲，战火持续燃烧的原因在于外部势力的介入。叙利亚已成为酝酿已久的地区冲突的舞台：一方是（逊尼派）沙特阿拉伯及其海湾盟国，另一方是（什叶派）伊朗。俄罗斯认为，维持大马士革政权对于俄罗斯国家利益至关重要；但土耳其认为推翻该政权符合本国利益。
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish president, talks about the enemies of Mr Assad as his “Sunni brothers”. But the shooting down of a Russian jet by Turkish warplanes patrolling the Syrian border has little to do with rival versions of Islam. Ankara’s fear is the emergence of a powerful Kurdish entity in northern Syria and Iraq — a concern that explains its dangerous ambivalence towards Isis. Russia, like the US and Europe, sees Isis as a serious threat, but does not want to risk losing its Mediterranean naval base.
土耳其总统雷杰普吠伊普埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)在讲话中形容阿萨德的敌人为自己的“逊尼派兄弟”。但是，土耳其战机击落一架在叙利亚边境巡逻的俄罗斯飞机之举，与伊斯兰教内部的教派冲突关系不大。安卡拉惧怕的是在叙利亚和伊拉克北部出现一个强大的库尔德人政权——这种担忧可以解释该国对待ISIS的危险的暧昧态度。像美国和欧洲一样，俄罗斯也将ISIS视为严重威胁，但莫斯科不想冒失去其地中海海军基地的风险。
For Tehran, the preservation of the Assad regime is part of a strategy that has seen Iran push its influence deep into the Arab world. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies want to counter what they fear is Iranian encirclement. These Sunni states also want to see Isis defeated, but not at the price of a victory for Tehran. And here are just a few of the dizzying complexities of the conflict.
对德黑兰而言，保住阿萨德政权是其深入影响阿拉伯世界战略的一部分。沙特与其他海湾君主国想要反制他们所惧怕的伊朗包围圈。这些逊尼派国家也希望看到ISIS被击溃，但不是以德黑兰的胜利为代价。以上这些只是这场冲突令人头晕的复杂性的一部分。
For the US and its allies, the overarching interest is the re-establishment of regional stability and the defeat of the Isis jihadis. But this is a conflict that defies partial solutions. An eventual peace will demand the unravelling of the confessional and the temporal — that religion surrenders to realpolitik.
对美国及其盟友而言，首要利益是恢复地区稳定和击败ISIS圣战分子。但这是一场无法用不到位的解决方案平息的冲突。最终的和平将需要理顺宗教与世俗势力的关系——宗教屈从于现实政治。
The Gordian knot is the struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but a settlement would have also to acknowledge Russia’s interests and Turkey’s fears. Impossible, many will say. Maybe. But until it happens, today’s Syria will live the horrors of 17th-century Germany; and Isis will continue to find a safe haven for its twisted credo.
症结在于伊朗与沙特之间的斗争，但是和解方案也将不得不承认俄罗斯的利益以及土耳其的担忧。很多人会说，这不可能。也许是。但在做到这一点之前，如今的叙利亚将经历17世纪德意志地区所遭遇的恐怖；而ISIS可以继续为自己扭曲的教义找到避风港。
