西方为何调整对沙特政策 Why the west's view of the Saudis is shifting

Something is changing in the west’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. You can read it in the newspapers. You can hear it from politicians. And you can see it in shifts in policy.

西方与沙特阿拉伯的关系正在发生某种变化。这一点可以从报纸上读出来；从政治家们口中听出来；从政策转变中看出来。

Hostile articles about the Saudis are now standard fare in the Western press. On Sunday, the main editorial in The Observer denounced the UK’s relationship with Saudi Arabia as an “unedifying alliance that imperils our security”. Two days earlier, the BBC ran an article highlighting an “unprecedented wave of executions” in Saudi Arabia. A couple of months ago, Thomas Friedman, arguably the most influential columnist in the US, labelled the terrorist group, Isis, the “ideological offspring” of Saudi Arabia.

对沙特怀有敌意的文章如今已成为西方媒体的标配。上周日，《观察家报》(The Observer)的主社论公开指责英国与沙特的关系是一种“危及英国安全的不光彩联盟”。不久前，英国广播公司(BBC)刊发的一篇文章浓墨重彩地报道了沙特国内一波“前所未有的死刑潮”。几个月前，堪称美国最具影响力专栏作家的托马斯弗里德曼(Thomas Friedman)，将恐怖组织“伊斯兰国”(ISIS)称为沙特的“意识形态产物”。

Politicians are taking up similar themes. Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s vice-chancellor, has accused Saudi Arabia of funding Islamist extremism in the west and added: “We have to make it clear to the Saudis that the time of looking away is over.” In the UK, Lord Ashdown, a former leader of the Liberal Democrats, has called for an investigation into the “funding of jihadism” in Britain and pointed at Saudi Arabia.

政治家们也开始拿类似的主题说事。德国副总理西格马尔加布里尔(Sigmar Gabriel)指责沙特为在西方活动的伊斯兰极端主义分子提供资金，并补充称：“我们必须让沙特明白，睁一只眼闭一只眼的日子已经结束。”英国自由民主党(Liberal Democrats)前党魁阿什当勋爵(Lord Ashdown)呼吁英国对“资助圣战组织”的行为展开调查，矛头直指沙特。

The sudden increase in concern about Saudi Arabia is driven, in large part, by the rise of Isis. Western policymakers know that the battle with jihadism is as much about ideology as guns. When they look for a source of the Isis worldview, they increasingly trace it back to the Wahhabi philosophy promoted by the Saudi religious establishment.

对沙特突然激增的担忧很大程度上是由ISIS的崛起带来的。西方政策制定者明白，在打击“圣战主义”方面，诉诸意识形态与诉诸武力同等重要。在寻找ISIS世界观的根源时，他们越来越多地追溯到了沙特宗教机构所倡导的瓦哈比主义(Wahhabi)。

Saudi influence in the west has also been weakened by other developments. The “shale revolution” in the US has made the west less dependent on Saudi oil. Meanwhile, the turmoil in the Middle East has shone a harsh light on Saudi foreign policy , with particular criticism aimed at the high level of civilian casualties caused by Saudi military intervention in Yemen, and Riyadh’s role in crushing an uprising in Bahrain in 2011.

沙特在西方的影响力也遭到了其他事态的削弱。美国的“页岩革命”使西方国家减少了对沙特石油的依赖。与此同时，中东地区的动荡也使沙特的外交政策招致批评，尤其是针对沙特军事干预也门造成大量平民伤亡、以及2011年沙特在镇压巴林国内起义中扮演的角色。

For the moment, however, all this criticism has led only to modest adjustments in western policy. For the Saudis themselves, the most alarming change has been President Barack Obama’s determination to secure a nuclear deal with Iran, facing down fierce opposition from Saudi Arabia. Beyond the Iran deal, however, there have been only small, symbolic gestures, such as Britain’s decision, driven by human-rights concerns, to pull out of the bidding for a contract to provide training for prisons in Saudi Arabia.

然而，目前来看，所有这些批评仅仅使西方轻微调整了对沙特的政策。对沙特人自己而言，最令人担忧的变化是，美国总统巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)不顾沙特的激烈反对，坚决要与伊朗达成核协议。但除了伊核协议之外，其他的都只是一些小的、象征性姿态，例如，英国出于人权方面的担忧，决定退出为沙特监狱提供培训的合同竞标。

Western critics of Saudi Arabia want to see the gloves come off. They accuse the governments of the UK and the US of being in thrall to Saudi money. Lord Ashdown has pointed to the influence of “rich Gulf individuals” in British politics. Saudi Arabia also remains a crucial market for western arms manufacturers. Over the past 18 months the US has approved the sale of more than $24bn of weaponry to Saudi Arabia.

批评沙特的西方人士希望看到西方对沙特动真格的。他们指责英美两国的政府受制于沙特的金元。阿什当勋爵曾指责“富裕的海湾人物”对英国政界施加了影响。此外，沙特仍是西方军火制造商的重要市场。过去18个月，美国已批准向沙特出售价值逾240亿美元的武器装备。

There are also solid reasons, that have little to do with money, for continued western co-operation with Saudi Arabia. The past five years have demonstrated that when bad governments fall in the Middle East, they are often replaced by something far worse. The most powerful internal critics of the Saudi monarchy are not liberals but hardline Islamists. The fear that Saudi Arabia could become yet another failed state haunts the west. One senior UK diplomat warns: “Get rid of the House of Saud and you will be screaming for them to come back within six months.”

西方继续与沙特合作，也有与金钱无关的其他充分理由。过去五年的经验证明，中东国家的坏政府倒台后，取代他们的人通常更加糟糕。沙特国内批评王室最猛烈的不是自由派，而是强硬的伊斯兰主义者。对于沙特可能变成又一个失败国家的担忧困扰着西方。一位英国高级外交官警告称：“如果推翻沙特王室，不出6个月你就会哭喊着要他们回来。”

Saudi Arabia’s relationship with jihadism is also complex. It is true that Islamists in Saudi Arabia have provided ideological and sometimes financial support for jihadis around the world. But it is also true that the Saudi royal family itself has been targeted by both Isis and al-Qaeda. At the same time, intelligence provided by the Saudis has been critical in thwarting some terrorist plots in the west. As one western counter-terrorism official puts it: “The Saudis are sometimes both the source of the problem and the best antidote to it.”

沙特与“圣战主义”的关系也同样复杂。没错，沙特境内的伊斯兰主义者为世界各地的圣战分子提供了意识形态和（不时的）资金支持。但沙特王室自身一直是ISIS和基地组织(al-Qaeda)袭击的目标，这也是事实。同时，沙特提供的情报，对挫败一些针对西方的恐怖袭击阴谋一直起着至关重要的作用。正如一位西方反恐官员所说：“沙特有时既是问题的根源也是问题的解药。”

Some western strategists daydream about ditching the Saudi alliance in favour of a rapprochement with Iran. If international politics were a chess game, this might look like a clever gambit.

一些西方战略人士幻想着宁愿抛弃与沙特的联盟，与伊朗修好。如果国际政治是一盘象棋，这或许看起来像一步妙棋。