西方为何应关注印度前途 Why the west should pay attention to India’s woes

Mention China at almost any meeting and you will trigger lively reactions, both optimistic and pessimistic. Try Brazil and you will also receive a keen response and different views, though the country’s emphasis on inclusive growth is fairly consistent and well understood. Shift the conversation to India, however, and enthusiasm visibly declines, especially recently. This matters: the Indian economy, perhaps more so than other emerging markets, will determine political and economic developments in its region and around the world.

几乎在任何会议上提到中国都会引发激烈反响，或乐观，或悲观。试着换成巴西，同样也会引起热烈反应和不同的观点。不过巴西强调的包容性增长方针一以贯之，容易理解。然而，一旦把话题转到印度，人们的热情明显下降，近年来这种趋势更加明显。这一点事关重大：印度经济或许将比其他新兴市场更能左右周边区域、乃至全球的政治和经济发展。

India ranks high among nations where restoring a high rate of economic growth can make a big difference to reducing poverty. According to data from the World Bank, a third of India’s population live on less than $1.25 a day, the internationally recognised poverty line. More than two-thirds live on less than $2 a day. India is estimated to have a third of the world’s poor.

有一类国家，只要能够恢复高速经济增长率，即可大规模消除贫困，印度在其中位列前茅。世界银行(World Bank)发布的数据显示，三分之一的印度人口生活在每天1.25美元的国际公认贫困线以下。三分之二以上的印度人口生活费水平每天不足2美元。据估计，印度贫困人口占全球贫困总人口的三分之一。

India is also an important country for anyone worried about the detrimental role of money in politics. There has been a sharp increase in the number of millionaires that serve as parliamentarians. And if you care about the orderly rebalancing of the global economy, India’s middle classes will probably play a vital role in the shift of emerging economies to more of a consumption model.

对于担心金钱荼毒政治的人士而言，印度也是一个重点国家。在印度议会中担任议员的百万富翁人数急剧增加。如果人们希望全球经济有序地实现再平衡，在新兴经济体向消费导向的模式转型过程中，印度中产阶层可能将发挥重要作用。

Then there are the regional dimensions. India is essential to the stability of a neighbourhood that includes other nuclear powers (China and Pakistan) and a failed state trying to recover (Afghanistan).

此外还有区域因素。印度对周边地区稳定不可或缺，这个区域既包括其他核大国（中国和巴基斯坦），也包括试图实现复苏的“失败国家”（阿富汗）。

Despite all this, the west seems to be paying too little attention to what has been going on in the Indian economy. Growth has slowed significantly. The fiscal deficit is sizeable. Internal political conflicts are increasing. India has all but stopped climbing the World Bank’s rankings of countries by ease of doing business – despite being far down the list to begin with.

尽管如此，西方似乎对印度经济发展状况漠不关心。印度经济增长显著下降。财政赤字庞大。内部政治冲突越来越多。在世界银行编制的商业经营难易程度排行榜上，印度几乎止步不前——尽管从一开始印度在榜单上的排名就很靠后。

Think of it this way. India operates what might be called a highly leveraged growth model. government deficits are relatively high but manageable provided gross domestic product growth is about 8-9 per cent. Policy errors that lead to slower growth mean rapid adjustments are required to avoid a downward spiral.

这么说吧。印度实行的是一种或许可以称之为“高度杠杆化”的增长模式。政府赤字规模相对较大，但只要国内生产总值(GDP)增长率达到8-9%左右，赤字就依然可控。政治错误导致增长放缓，这意味着，要避免螺旋式下滑，就必须快速实施调整。

We suspect that there are four main reasons for the failure of India to register in the west.

我们认为，印度未能获得西方关注，有四点主要原因。

First, there is a lot else going on in the global economy, such as Europe’s debt crisis, America’s fiscal cliff and the risk of a hard landing for China. Second, India is hard to analyse, with regional governments adding an extra layer of complexity. Third, the country’s malaise is hidden behind the global success of its privately owned multinational companies. Finally, India’s “disruptive” impact on international production patterns and trade has been largely limited to services; it is yet to be anywhere near as influential as China.

首先，全球经济存在其他多种问题，例如欧洲债务危机，美国财政悬崖，以及中国的硬着陆风险等。第二，印度是个难以分析的国家，而地方政府各自为政，进一步增加了问题的复杂性。第三，印度私营跨国企业在全球的成功掩盖了印度的问题。最后，印度对全球生产模式和贸易的“干扰性”影响主要限于服务业，其影响力与中国不可同日而语。

These are all understandable reasons for the limited attention that India is receiving. But they are not good ones given the implications.

印度受到的关注不足，这些原因都可理解。但考虑到其影响，这些原因都无法令人满意。

India is yet to move beyond first-generation structural reforms to its economy. By moving from state- managed controls to more market-based ones, it created a surge in economic growth and a rapid expansion of the private sector. However, the second generation of reforms, which typically follow as countries become richer, has yet to arrive. These reforms sustain growth by encouraging much more productive microeconomic behaviours.

印度尚未走出第一代经济结构改革阶段。第一代结构改革使经济从国家管制走向市场化，推动经济迅猛增长，私营行业快速扩张。但是，在国家变得富裕一些之后，第二代改革往往应该跟进，但印度尚未着手实施。第二代改革将鼓励更具生产性的微观经济行为，以维持经济增长。

For India, reducing the scope and scale of corruption is one such necessary reform. It serves to divert resources in a highly distorted and inefficient manner. More broadly, structural budgetary weakness impedes growth, fiscal sustainability and acceptable distributions of income and wealth.

对于印度而言，减少腐败的范围和规模是改革的一条必由之路。腐败导致资源配给严重扭曲，毫无效率。从更广泛的角度来看，结构性预算疲弱妨碍经济增长、财政的可持续性以及收入和财富的合理分配。

India is not the first economy to face these issues, nor will it be the last. Yet the consequences of a protracted slowdown would be much more pronounced. The last thing today’s fragile global economy needs is another source of systemic risk.

印度不是第一个、也不是最后一个存在这些问题的经济体。然而经济增长长期低迷的后果在印度将更加明显。今天脆弱的全球经济最不需要的就是再增加一个系统性风险源头。

It is not too late for the country to change course and find the path of higher growth and financial stability. Indeed, recent policy mistakes are being addressed with the return of Palaniappan Chidambaram, the experienced finance minister, who has begun his third term in this office, and with the able support of Raghuram Rajan, a respected academic from the University of Chicago, as chief economist.

如果印度现在能够改弦易辙，寻找一条使经济加快增长、金融保持稳定的道路，则为时未晚。事实上，随着经验丰富的财长帕拉尼亚潘?齐丹巴拉姆(Palaniappan Chidambaram)的回归，最近的政策失误得以纠正。这是他第三次担任印度财政部长一职，并得到了芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)著名学者拉古拉姆·拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)的大力支持。拉詹担任印度财政部首席经济顾问。

Their efforts will need to be translated into decisive action by the ruling coalition, a return to legislative business, reforms by parliament and a major effort to rein in corruption. But if it takes too long for this to happen, many western governments, companies and investors will wake up to an unpleasant surprise. The impact will be felt well beyond India’s borders.

他们的努力必须转换成执政联盟的果断行动，如恢复立法工作，实施议会改革，大力反腐。但如果这一过程耗时过久，很多西方政府、企业和投资者将幡然醒悟，印度是令人不快的意外。其影响将远远超出印度国境。