东盟应推进一体化 Asean would be wise to beef up its powers

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations should be an economic powerhouse. Asean’s population of 625m is set to grow by 120m before 2030, adding to an abundant pool of labour that complements bounteous natural resources. Yet the 10-member region punches well below its weight: it accounts for 3 per cent of global gross domestic product but is home to 9 per cent of the world’s population. The underachievement derives in part from political and regulatory diversity that undermines regional competitiveness and inhibits inflows of investment into manufacturing and infrastructure.

东南亚国家联盟（ASEAN，简称东盟）应成为一个强大的经济集团。东盟的6.25亿人口将在2030年之前增加1.2亿，不但可以扩大本就充裕的劳动力储备，而且该地区还拥有丰富的自然资源。然而，这个10国集团的表现并不尽如人意：东盟拥有世界9%的人口，却只占全球GDP的3%。这种不佳表现部分源于成员国在政治和监管方面的多样性，这削弱了区域的竞争力，抑制了对制造业和基础设施的投资。

Thus the launch of the Asean Economic Community, due by the end of this year, represents a milestone. The AEC aims to accelerate integration and establish a single market and production base. Hopes for the potential on offer are accentuated by a slowdown that has depressed the region’s GDP growth rate to its lowest level since the 2008/09 financial crisis.

因此，计划在今年底之前创立的东盟经济共同体(Asean Economic Community, AEC)具有里程碑意义。AEC旨在加快区域一体化，建立单一的市场和生产基地。对AEC能带来潜力的期待已因为经济放缓而变得更加迫切，该地区的GDP增速下降至2008/09年金融危机以来的最低水平。

On paper, the AEC’s aspirations resemble the early days of the European Economic Community. A blueprint agreed in 2007 envisaged a single market and production base, which included measures to standardise trade tariffs and dismantle non-tariff barriers, plus a free flow of services and investment. It allowed for more liberal migrations of skilled labour and freer interchanges of capital.

表面上看，AEC的目标类似于欧洲经济共同体(European Economic Community)成立之初的愿景。东盟2007年通过的一项蓝图设想了单一的市场和生产基地，其中包括规范贸易关税、消除非关税壁垒的措施，以及服务和投资的自由流动。它还允许熟练工人更自由地迁徙以及更自由的资本流通。

Of these, only a generally free trade in goods has materialised. Trade in services remains hobbled by formal and informal barriers while free flows of capital and investment are far from realised. A more liberalised market for skilled labour is so far away that officials rarely bother to mention it. This paucity of progress is having an effect. Intra-Asian trade has declined over the past 18 months, having flatlined during the previous two years. Such a record detracts from expectations. Indeed, the main impediment to integration is to be found among Asean’s founding principles.

这些目标中，只有商品基本自由贸易已经实现。服务贸易仍受困于正式及非正式的壁垒，而资本和投资的自由流动还远未实现。对熟练工人而言，更自由的市场如此遥不可及，连官员们都很少愿意再去提及。这种缺乏进展的局面已经带来影响。在经过两年的零增长之后，过去18个月，亚洲内部贸易已经出现下滑。这种表现降低了人们的期望值。实际上，东盟一体化的主要障碍存在于该组织的成立原则之中。

Unlike the EU, which relies on intrusive powers to ensure policy alignment among its members, the body shows no willingness to jettison its cherished “Asean way”, a consensus approach to decision-making that discourages “interference” in the internal affairs of fellow members. Too often this results in a frustrating lack of traction.

与依靠干预性权力确保成员间政策均等的欧盟(EU)不同，东盟并不愿意放弃其珍视的“东盟方式”(Asean Way)，而这种要求达成一致的决策方式阻碍了对成员国内部事务的“干预”。由此带来的结果通常是令人沮丧的前进动力不足。

In addition, there is a debilitating lack of administrative capacity. The Asean secretariat, which is responsible for forwarding the group’s agendas, has a tiny budget ($17m in 2014) and a skeleton staff that lacks the power to enforce adherence to regional initiatives. Progress towards AEC, for example, is assessed retrospectively with a “scorecard” approach that avoids direct criticism of member states.

此外，东盟还缺乏行政管理能力，这是有害的。负责推进组织议程的东盟秘书处的预算很少（2014年为1700万美元），秘书处的主要官员也没有让各国执行地区动议的权力。例如，用“计分卡”方式对推动AEC的进展进行回顾性评估，以避免直接批评成员国。

These features, however, do not tell the whole story. In spite of Asean’s fuzzy focus on integration, other forces buffeting the region are imparting a more irresistible momentum towards reform. The region is a vital part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which ties Asean members into a programme of trade liberalisation with China, India, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. In addition, Asean states Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei are founding members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement with the US.

然而，这些特征并不代表全部。尽管东盟自身对一体化态度模糊，冲击该地区的其他势力正带来一种更不可抗拒的改革动力。东盟是“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定”(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)的重要成员，该协定使东盟成员国加入了一项与中国、印度、韩国、日本、澳大利亚及新西兰的贸易自由化计划中。此外，马来西亚、新加坡、越南及文莱四个东盟国家还是与美国达成的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP）的创始成员国。

It is likely that, even if Asean continues to fight shy of defining its destiny, the promises that members make beyond the region will drive inexorable progress towards integration. Therefore it makes sense to beef up its secretariat’s powers and take a more intrusive approach towards implementing the AEC.

即使东盟依然怯于掌握自己的命运，很有可能的是，其成员国在区域之外所做的承诺将不可避免地推动东盟一体化取得进步。因此，有必要强化东盟秘书处的权力，并采取一种更具干预性的方式来落实AEC。