俄罗斯与西方和解还是对抗 A case for rapprochement with Russia

In the aftermath of the Paris attacks, two pictures sent a powerful message about how international politics are changing. One was of Barack Obama hunched in discussion in a hotel lobby with Vladimir Putin. The frosty body language of their previous meeting at the UN had given way to something more businesslike. The US and Russian presidents almost looked like colleagues. Picture number two, artfully released by the defence ministry in Moscow, was of a Russian bomb being loaded on a plane in Syria with the words “That’s for Paris” scrawled on the side.

巴黎恐怖袭击发生后，两张照片透露出了国际政治变化动向的强有力信号。第一张是在一家酒店的大堂，巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)弯腰和弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)在交谈。俩人之前在联合国(UN)会晤时冷淡的肢体语言已经不见，取而代之的是更加公事公办的姿态。美俄两国总统看上去几乎像是同事。第二张照片则是俄罗斯国防部刻意发布的，照片上一枚俄罗斯炸弹正在被装上一架在叙利亚的飞机，炸弹侧面写着“为了巴黎(That's for Paris)”的字样。

Together the two images highlighted an interesting possibility. Might Russia and the west begin to bury their differences by making common cause in the war against Isis? The idea horrifies many Russia analysts in the west and presents enormous complications. Nonetheless, it is worth a try for a number of reasons.

把这两张照片放在一起，突显出了一种耐人寻味的可能性。俄罗斯和西方是否有可能抛开分歧，把对抗ISIS之战作为共同事业？这个想法吓坏了西方许多关注俄罗斯的分析人士，而且呈现一种极其错综复杂的局面。不过，出于多个原因，这种想法是值得一试的。

First, foreign policy is about setting priorities — and after Paris, with the threat of further attacks to come, the defeat of Isis is rightly the top western priority. Second, there have been some modest but important signs that Russia is backing off in Ukraine. The ceasefire in the east of the country held throughout the autumn. There has been a flare-up of fighting in recent days but not all of it has been driven by the Russians. Finally, neither the west nor Russia has a monopoly of wisdom on the Syrian conflict. Finding a middle ground between the entrenched positions of Moscow and Washington could help end the conflict.

首先，外交政策的要点是确定优先事项。在巴黎恐袭之后，由于还可能发生更多袭击，击败ISIS势必成为西方的首要任务。其次，一些不太惹眼但意义重大的信号表明，俄罗斯正在逐渐撤出乌克兰。整个秋天，乌克兰东部都处于停火状态。最近几天曾突发战事，不过并不是全都由俄罗斯人发动的。最后，不管西方还是俄罗斯对叙利亚冲突都没有独具一格的明智见解。在俄罗斯政府和美国政府根深蒂固的立场之间找到一个中间地带，将有助于结束冲突。

The Putin government’s fiercest western critics argue that Russia’s annexation of Crimea and military engagement in eastern Ukraine were such fundamental breaches of international law that Russia ultimately presents a bigger menace to the world order than Isis. But that is a hard argument to make to European and American publics NO APOSTROPHE - TANSA NOTWITHSTANDINGat the moment, who can see that Islamist terrorists pose a direct and immediate security threat to the major cities of the west in a way that Russia does not.

最严厉抨击普京政府的西方批评人士声称，俄罗斯吞并克里米亚的行径及其在乌克兰东部的军事行动，从根本上违背了国际法，因此俄罗斯最终将给全球秩序带来比ISIS更大的威胁。然而，就眼下来说，这个理由很难说服欧美公众，他们可以看到，伊斯兰主义恐怖分子正在给西方大城市带来直接而迫切的安全威胁，而俄罗斯不会造成这种威胁。

The Russia hawks point out that the war unleashed in Ukraine has cost thousands of lives. Russia’s military build-up continues. The Russian government has embraced a highly nationalistic and anti-western worldview.

主张对俄罗斯强硬的鹰派人士指出，在乌克兰爆发的战争导致成千上万的人丧生。俄罗斯的军事集结仍在继续。俄罗斯政府抱持一种高度民族主义和反西方的世界观。

Also, Mr Putin has a record of turning aggression on and off as political circumstances dictate. Taking the pressure off now, they argue, might encourage future Crimeas.

而且，普京在过去也有过随着政治形势变化而先侵后撤的做法。批评人士称，假如现在解除对俄罗斯的压力，未来可能出现更多个克里米亚。

These arguments cannot be waved away. So any move towards a rapprochement with Russia has to be gradual and conditional. The EU has correctly decided not to ease sanctions on Russia, for now. But if the ceasefire in Ukraine is restored and holds, and Russia is constructive on Syria, then some alleviation of sanctions becomes much more likely in the first half of 2016. The Russians will in any case know that sanctions can be reimposed and intensified if circumstances change.

对这些说法不能忽视。因此，任何与俄罗斯修复关系的举措，必须以循序渐进的方式进行，并且要附带条件。欧盟已明智地决定，暂时不会放宽对俄罗斯的制裁。不过如果乌克兰恢复并一直保持停火，并且俄罗斯在叙利亚问题上发挥建设性作用，那么在2016年上半年减轻部分制裁的可能性就大多了。不管怎样，俄罗斯人知道，一旦情况有变，制裁还可能再次实施并加大力度。

Those who oppose an attempt at rapprochement with Russia also argue that Mr Putin’s real motive in Syria has less to do with the defeat of Isis than with re-establishing Russian power in the Middle East and handing the US a symbolic defeat. They point out that most early Russian air strikes were aimed at the “moderate” Syrian opposition, rather than Isis. They add that Russia’s aim of keeping President Bashar al-Assad in power will ultimately empower the jihadis — because hatred of Mr Assad is their biggest recruiting sergeant.

那些反对与俄罗斯和解的人士还说，普京在叙利亚的真实动机与其说是为了打败ISIS，不如说是要重建俄罗斯在中东的影响力，并让美国遭遇一次具有象征意义的失败。他们指出，俄罗斯早期的空袭中，多数目标对准“温和的”叙利亚反对派而不是ISIS。他们补充说，俄罗斯确保叙利亚总统巴沙尔阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)继续掌权的目标，最终会令圣战者壮大势力——因为对阿萨德的憎恨就是他们最有力的招兵工具。

These points also have some force. But they still do not invalidate the case for trying to work with Moscow on Syria. The Russian government has now accepted that Isis was behind the attack on a civilian airliner in Sinai that killed hundreds of Russian citizens. Perhaps as a result, in recent days many more of its air strikes have been directed at Isis.

这些论点也有一定说服力。不过它们仍不能抵消尝试与俄罗斯在叙利亚问题上合作的理由。俄罗斯政府已承认一架民航客机在西奈半岛遭袭的幕后黑手是ISIS，该事件导致数百名俄罗斯公民丧生。也许是出于这个原因，最近几天俄罗斯以ISIS为目标的空袭多了许多。

The fate of Mr Assad remains a significant dividing line between the western powers and Russia. The big regional powers are even more bitterly divided over this issue, with Iran backing Mr Assad to the hilt and the Saudis and Turks demanding that he leave office.

阿萨德的命运依然是西方强国与俄罗斯的重大分歧所在。中东地区主要国家在这个问题上更是水火不相容。其中，伊朗完全支持阿萨德，而沙特和土耳其则要求他下台。

The western powers and their allies are right that Mr Assad’s brutality has served as a rallying cry for Sunni Arabs and helped the jihadi cause. But the Russian response also has merit. Their argument is that any vacuum after the fall of Mr Assad is likely to be filled by some mixture of violent chaos and Islamism — circumstances that could be designed for Isis to thrive in. Conditions on the ground in Syria and the experiences of Iraq and Libya make this Russian analysis hard to refuteTHIS SHOULD BE REFUTE - TANSA NOTWITHSTANDING. Without really acknowledging it, the US has in any case moved gradually towards the Russian position, dropping its insistence on the immediate departure of Mr Assad. The very real threat that both Russia and the western powers face from Isis may now concentrate minds enough to force them to bridge their remaining differences over the fate of Mr Assad.

西方强国及他们的盟友认为，阿萨德的残暴为逊尼派阿拉伯人提供了战斗口号，并帮助圣战发展，这一点确实没错。不过俄罗斯的应对也有值得称道之处。他们的理由是，一旦阿萨德倒台形成权力真空，就可能被暴力动荡和伊斯兰主义的某种混合体填补——这种局面简直就是刻意要使ISIS发展壮大。叙利亚的地面形势以及伊拉克和利比亚的经历，令人很难驳斥俄罗斯方面的这种观点。美国虽没有真正承认这种观点，终归还是逐渐转向了俄罗斯的立场，不再一味坚持阿萨德必须立即下台。俄罗斯和西方强国都面临着来自ISIS的真实威胁，这种威胁如今或许已足够凝聚共识，迫使他们弥合在阿萨德命运问题上依然存在的分歧。