美国应乐见俄罗斯出兵叙利亚 Obama will have to rely on ugly allies to fight Isis

What are the Russians up to in Syria? Nothing unusual, says the Kremlin. Russia, it reminds us, has been providing Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad with weapons and advisers for quite some time. But Washington sees something bigger going on. Anonymous US officials have told Reuters that Russia has sent aircraft, tank landing ships and naval infantry forces to the country in recent days. It would not be the first time President Vladimir Putin has dispatched troops and weapons that he won’t acknowledge.

俄罗斯人在叙利亚干什么？克里姆林宫说，没什么不寻常。俄罗斯提醒我们，他们向叙利亚总统巴沙尔阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)提供武器及顾问已经有很久了。但华盛顿看出了更大的动静。不愿透露姓名的美国官员对路透社(Reuters)表示，俄罗斯近日向叙利亚派出了飞机、坦克登陆舰及海军步兵部队。这不会是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)第一次在不肯承认的情况下向海外派遣军队和武器。

It appears the Russians are preparing to play a bigger role in Syria because they want to bolster Mr Assad and ensure that future talks on the country’s future do not include western demands for him to be ousted. After all, Syria is Russia’s best foothold in the region. Historic ties make it a reliable ally, and the Assad government provides Russia with a Mediterranean naval base. Mr Putin also means firmly to set Russia’s position as an indispensable player in Middle East politics, and he knows he will get away with this power play.

俄罗斯人似乎准备在叙利亚发挥更大的作用，因为他们希望支撑阿萨德，确保有朝一日关于叙利亚未来的谈判不包括西方让其下台的要求。毕竟，叙利亚是俄罗斯在中东地区的最佳立足点。历史渊源使叙利亚成为俄罗斯的可靠盟友，阿萨德政府为俄罗斯提供了一个地中海海军基地。普京也坚定地希望确立俄罗斯作为中东政治中不可或缺一员的地位，他知道自己可以玩转这种权力游戏。

Should Washington worry? Yes, but not about Mr Putin.

华盛顿应该担心吗？是的，但不应该担心普京。

It’s time for the Obama administration to accept some cold hard facts. Its Syria policy is a failure. Mr Assad remains in power. He is probably still using weapons and tactics that violate international conventions. The nuclear deal with Iran will bring Tehran more revenue to bolster his rule. Nearly a quarter of a million Syrians have been killed, refugees are on the move, and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (also known as Isis) continues to gain ground and new recruits. It’s the worst of all possible worlds.

奥巴马政府该承认一些严酷的事实了。其叙利亚政策已失败。阿萨德仍在台上。他很可能仍在使用违反国际公约的武器和战术。美国与伊朗达成的核协议将为德黑兰带来更多收入，使其能够支撑阿萨德的统治。近25万叙利亚人在内战中丧生，难民不断外逃，而“伊拉克与黎凡特伊斯兰国”(Isis)还在继续扩大地盘并招募新成员。这真是所有可能的情形中最糟糕的景象。

The failure of the US administration’s Syria plan is exceeded only by the senselessness of its Russia policy. The primary lesson that Americans should have learnt in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan is that, no matter how powerful you are, it is hard to defeat an enemy that cares much more about the outcome than you do. The Obama administration stumbled into conflict with Russia over Ukraine, a country that will always matter much more to Moscow than to Washington, and Mr Putin is now reminding the world that Russia is too big to isolate.

就奥巴马政府而言，比叙利亚计划失败更糟糕的是其匪夷所思的俄罗斯政策。美国人本应从越南、伊拉克及阿富汗战争汲取的主要教训是，不管你多么强大，都很难打败一个比你更关心战争结果的敌人。奥巴马政府在乌克兰问题上不知不觉地卷入了与俄罗斯的冲突，而乌克兰对莫斯科历来都比其对华盛顿重要得多，同时普京现在提醒整个世界：俄罗斯大到无法被孤立。

That’s the past. It’s now time to focus on the future of the increasingly unstable Middle East. Following the final withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, President Barack Obama has worked hard to minimise American involvement in the region. That is the right approach. He knows there is little US public support for extended commitments of US troops and taxpayer dollars to try to manage this unmanageable neighbourhood.

这些都是过去式了。现在应该聚焦于越来越不稳定的中东的未来。美军撤出伊拉克之后，巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)总统努力尽量减小美国对该地区的介入。这是正确的做法。他知道，美国公众不支持长期投入美军以及纳税人资金来管理这个管不好的地区。

But less involvement does not eliminate the need to set policy priorities. The primary US commitment in the Middle East should be to destroy Isis. This band of nihilist militants is now the best-equipped, best-funded terrorist organisation in history. It demands US and international attention. It is Isis that threatens to destabilise countries across the Middle East. It is raising alert levels everywhere by attracting recruits, imitators and allies around the world. The violence it generates is now filling refugee camps in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. It is flooding Europe with swelling numbers of desperate migrants.

但是减少介入并没有消除设定政策轻重缓急的必要。美国对中东的首要承诺应该是消灭Isis。如今，这群肆无忌惮的武装分子是史上装备最先进、资金最充裕的恐怖组织。这需要引起美国和国际社会的关注。Isis已经危及中东各国的稳定。通过吸引新兵、模仿者以及盟友，Isis敲响了世界各地的警钟。Isis的暴力正使土耳其、黎巴嫩和约旦的难民营人满为患，还有越来越多绝望的难民涌向欧洲。

The Obama administration, and a majority of the American people, want to avoid sending American soldiers back into Iraq yet again, and Isis cannot be destroyed from the air. Washington will therefore need friends to help. Nato allies (including Turkey), Iran, Iraqi militia groups (Sunni and Shia) and Russia all have good reason to want to put Isis on its back. All will be needed.

奥巴马政府以及大多数美国人都想避免让美军官兵重返伊拉克，而仅靠空中打击又无法消灭Isis。因此，华盛顿需要盟友的帮助。北约盟国（包括土耳其）、伊朗、伊拉克民兵组织（逊尼派和什叶派）以及俄罗斯都有很好的理由要消灭Isis。这一切都是美国需要的。

That means swallowing the idea that Iran, soon to be freed from sanctions, is now a regional powerbroker, that Mr Assad will remain in power and that Russia will play a larger and lasting role in the Middle East. Mr Assad will use Iranian cash and Mr Putin’s military support to sideline the Syrian rebels that Washington wants to help. A strengthened alliance of Russia, Iran and Syria will put Israel, the Saudis and other US allies on edge. European sanctions on Russia won’t last for ever. The US will act in the Middle East only to defend its core national interests.

这意味着美国将不得不接受一些令人不快的现实：即将被解除制裁伊朗的已成为地区权力掮客；阿萨德将继续掌权；俄罗斯将在中东发挥更大且持久的作用。阿萨德将使用伊朗提供的现金和普京的军事支持，把华盛顿想帮助的叙利亚反政府武装力量排挤出局。俄罗斯、伊朗及叙利亚之间加强盟友关系，将令以色列、沙特阿拉伯及其他美国的盟国感到不安。欧洲对俄罗斯的制裁不会永久持续下去。美国只有在捍卫核心国家利益时才会在中东采取行动。

Accepting this new reality requires an exceptionally painful climb down for the US president. Some will attack him for increasing US involvement in the Middle East. Others will attack him for limiting that involvement and for relying on an undeniably ugly collection of partners. But unless and until the Obama administration comes up with a better plan to defeat Isis, there is no good alternative. Leadership requires tough choices. Syria is an excellent place to start.

接受这些新的现实需要美国总统做出极为痛苦的让步。有人会攻击他加大了美国对中东的介入，而其他人则会攻击他限制了美国的介入，并依赖一群无比丑陋的伙伴。但除非奥巴马政府拿出打败Isis的更好计划，否则就不存在好的选择。领导力需要能够做出艰难抉择。从叙利亚开始再好不过。