埃塞俄比亚看好中国因素 Ethiopian industry: still banking on China
China’s slowing economy and the turmoil on its stock and foreign exchange markets have reverberated around the world and constitute one of the biggest threats to growth in other emerging markets in 2016.
中国经济放缓以及中国股市和汇率的动荡在全球引发震荡，并对2016年其他新兴市场的增长构成最大威胁之一。
But in Ethiopia, one of the many beneficiaries of Chinese trade and investment, officials remain unfazed.
但在埃塞俄比亚（受益于中国贸易和投资的众多国家之一），官员们泰然自若。
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Ethiopia’s foreign minister, says he is confident that Chinese investors still consider Ethiopia a “target country” for manufacturing operations overseas, as wages rise across Asia.
埃塞俄比亚外交部长泰德斯攠德汉姆戈巴耶思(Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus)表示，他相信，随着亚洲各国薪资上涨，中国投资者仍会将埃塞俄比亚视为海外制造业务的“目标国”。
“I expect even more foreign direct investment flow from China. There is a strong interest to migrate manufacturing to Ethiopia,” Mr Ghebreyesus told the Financial Times.
戈巴耶思告诉英国《金融时报》：“我预计会有更多来自中国的外国直接投资(FDI)流入。他们对于把制造业迁至埃塞俄比亚有着浓厚兴趣。”
Wages in Ethiopia are about a quarter of those in China’s and half of Vietnam’s. Ethiopia also benefits from duty-free access to the US market for many goods through the US Africa Growth and Opportunity Act.
埃塞俄比亚的薪资是中国水平的四分之一左右，是越南的一半。埃塞俄比亚还受益于这一事实：根据美国《非洲增长与机会法》(African Growth and Opportunity Act)，该国很多产品可免税进入美国市场。
In October, the IMF cut its 2016 growth forecast for Africa to 3.75 per cent on the back of weak commodities prices and China’s falling growth figures.
去年10月，国际货币基金组织(IMF)将非洲2016年的增长预测下调至3.75%，理由是大宗商品价格下跌和中国增速放缓。
Ethiopia’s forecasts, by contrast, are holding at above 8 per cent through 2015 and into 2016.
相比之下，埃塞俄比亚对2015年全年以及2016年的预测仍超过8%。
Across Africa, the relationship with China — which surpassed the US to become the region’s top trade partner in 2009 — has been one of the drivers of an economic boom over the past decade.
在非洲各国，与中国的关系是过去10年经济繁荣的推动力之一，2009年，中国超过美国，成为非洲最大贸易伙伴。
Ethiopia’s semi-authoritarian government has made turning the country into a hub for light manufacturing a key priority. That strategy is bearing fruit: industrial output grew by 21.2 per cent between 2013 and 2014, and now accounts for some 14 per cent of GDP.
埃塞俄比亚的半威权政府把推动该国转型为一个轻工制造业中心列为关键工作重点。这种战略正在结出果实：从2013年至2014年，该国工业产出增长21.2%，现在约占国内生产总值(GDP)的14%。
The Ethiopian government has set itself a target of $1bn in textile exports by 2016. Attracting Chinese companies will be key. Between 2003 and Q3 2015, 11 of the 15 projects China has invested in Ethiopia have been in manufacturing, according to fDi Markets, a data service from the Financial Times.
埃塞俄比亚政府设定的目标是到2016年纺织品出口额达到10亿美元。吸引中国企业将是关键。根据英国《金融时报》数据服务机构fDi Markets的数据，2003年至2015年第三季度，中国在埃塞俄比亚投资的15个项目中，有11个是在制造业。
Major retailers have taken note. Swedish clothing powerhouse H&M announced in August that it would begin sourcing products from Ethiopian factories, following similar initiatives by the likes of Tesco and Walmart.
大型零售商注意到了这点。瑞典服装巨擘H&M去年8月宣布，将开始从埃塞俄比亚的工厂采购产品，此前乐购(Tesco)和沃尔玛(Walmart)等零售商采取了类似举措。
The Ethiopian government is putting money behind its bid for industrialisation and plans to continue to do so at pace, despite headwinds in the global economy, according to the minister.
戈巴耶思表示，尽管全球经济面临不利因素，但埃塞俄比亚政府正把资金投入工业化计划，并计划继续按计划进行。
“We are beginning a programme of massive infrastructure construction and special economic zone building so that we have the parts in place to attract these investments,” Mr Ghebreyesus says. “We have strong commitment from the Chinese government, and from Chinese companies.”
“我们正启动大规模基础设施建设计划，并建设经济特区，使我们具备吸引这些投资的条件，”戈巴耶思表示，“我们拥有中国政府以及中国企业的强有力承诺。”
Industrialisation has proven difficult across much of the region, so African policymakers are watching the Ethiopian example with interest.
在非洲很多地区，工业化一直被证明困难重重，因此非洲的政策制定者普遍对埃塞俄比亚的例子感兴趣。
In 2014, officials at the Ethiopian Industrial Development Zones Corporation said it would put a $250m World Bank loan into expanding the Bole Lemi special economic zone (SEZ) outside Addis, the capital, as well as building an entirely new “industrial hub” at Kilinito some 30km south. At least another three SEZs are planned for other parts of the country in the coming few years, including one in Dire Dawa in the south-east.
2014年，埃塞俄比亚工业开发区公司(Ethiopian Industrial Development Zones Corporation)的高管表示，将把世界银行(World Bank)的2.5亿美元贷款用于开发该国首都亚的斯亚贝巴郊外的Bole Lemi经济特区，并在30公里以南的克里尼托(Kilinito)建设一个全新的“工业中心”。该国计划未来几年在国内其他地方至少再建设3个经济特区，包括东南部的德雷达瓦。
The question is whether China’s manufacturers will be making the jump across at the pace Ethiopia anticipated in years past. China’s FDI into greenfields projects in Africa fell sharply in the first half of 2015, according to fDi Markets.
问题是中国制造商是否会像埃塞俄比亚过去几年预期的那样迈出大步。fDi Markets的数据显示，去年上半年，中国对非洲新项目的直接投资大幅下滑。
According to Mr Ghebreyesus, any dip in China’s investment flows into the region will be temporary. “It will not last. The curve will go back up,” he says. “The difference will depend on SEZ construction.”
戈巴耶思表示，中国对该地区的投资减少将是暂时的。“这不会持续很长时间。曲线将重新上行，”他表示，“这取决于经济特区的建设。”
Results from the December Caixin survey mark the fifth month in a row that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index has remained below the 50-point mark that separates economic expansion from contraction.
财新去年12月调查的结果显示，中国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)连续第5个月低于50，50代表经济扩张与收缩的分水岭。
According to analysts, however, Ethiopian officials’ optimism is not misplaced. As China’s demand for commodities slows, “Ethiopia should be more resilient than other commodity-exporting countries”, says Sarah Baynton-Glen, Africa economist at Standard Chartered.
然而，分析师们表示，埃塞俄比亚官员的乐观并非没有道理。渣打银行(Standard Chartered)非洲经济学家萨拉贝恩顿-格伦(Sarah Baynton-Glen)表示，随着中国对大宗商品的需求放缓，“埃塞俄比亚的弹性应当会超过其他大宗商品出口国”。
Bucking trends across much of Africa for commodities-led growth, Ethiopia has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies on the back of strong growth in the services, agriculture and industrial sectors.
相对于非洲很多国家以大宗商品为主导的增长，埃塞俄比亚成为这一趋势的一个例外。服务业、农业和工业的强劲增长，使该国成为全球增长最快的经济体之一。
Investment is only a small part of the relationship. “A large part of involvement by China in Ethiopia is through project contracts — largely infrastructure projects — which we do not think are likely to drop off as a result of slower Chinese growth,” says Ms Baynton-Glen.
投资只是中埃两国关系的一小部分。贝恩顿-格伦表示：“中国参与埃塞俄比亚经济的很大一部分是通过项目合约，主要是基础设施项目，我们认为，这些合约不太可能因中国增速放缓而减少。”
For the time being at least, plans for Ethiopia’s industrial transformation appear set to remain on track.
至少目前来看，埃塞俄比亚的工业转型计划似乎保持在正轨上。
