奥巴马清洁电力背后的政治算盘

Having solved the Iranian problem US President Barack Obama has selected climate change as the next building block in the construction of his legacy.

在解决完伊朗问题之后，美国总统巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)选择将气候变化作为其政治遗产的下一个组成部分。

The contents of his “clean power plan”, which he trailed at the weekend, are important for their substance and, equally, for their political impact — not just for the Paris climate negotiations in December but more importantly for the presidential election next year.

上周末出炉的奥巴马《清洁电力计划》(Clean Power Plan)具有实质重要性，同样也具有重要的政治冲击力——对今年12月的巴黎气候谈判，对明年的总统大选都是如此。

On the substance, the move is an unprecedented peacetime assertion of political authority over the private sector. Even if some states resist the instruction to cut emissions by about a third from a 2005 base within 15 years, many will obey — with serious consequences for the businesses involved and their investors. Coal-fired power plants will be closed and, with export potential limited, dozens of US coal mines will close as well. No wonder the reaction from the industry is fierce.

就实质内容而言，此举是政治权力机构在和平时期对私人部门提出的史无前例的要求。它要求各州在15年内将碳排放量在2005年基础上减少大约三分之一；即使有一些州会抵制，但许多州将遵从——给相关企业及其投资者造成严重后果。燃煤电厂将被关闭，而且鉴于出口空间受限，数十家美国煤矿也将关闭。难怪业界反应激烈。

The beneficiary will be the solar business. Mr Obama’s plan echoes the initiative launched last month by Hillary Clinton as part of her campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, designed to increase the amount of solar power generated by 700 per cent by 2027, using regulatory power to boost the market share of renewables.

受益者将是太阳能企业。奥巴马的计划呼应了希拉里克林顿(Hillary Clinton)上月在争取民主党总统候选人提名时提出的主张，力求让太阳能发电量到2027年增加700%，动用监管权力提升可再生能源的市场份额。

The number is ambitious but the pace of technical progress means growth could be achieved without a big increase in subsidies or consumer prices. Across the US the costs of solar is falling and beginning to reach “grid parity”— which means they are competitive with the lowest cost fossil fuel without the need for subsidies. Mrs Clinton’s proposal cuts with the grain of emerging reality.

从数字来看，该计划雄心勃勃，但从技术进步步伐来看，增长可以在不大幅增加补贴或上调消费者价格的情况下实现。美国各地的太阳能发电成本正在下降，开始达到“入网平等”（grid parity，即太阳发电成本下降至与传统发电成本相当），这意味着它们不需要补贴也可以与最低成本的化石燃料竞争。希拉里的提议与正在显现的新现实相符。

Nuclear and natural gas are left, under Mr Obama’s proposals, to fend for themselves, with no mandated market shares and no subsidies. As things stand, the gas industry can cope but, short of a breakthrough that reduces production costs, new nuclear in America looks almost as lost as it does in Europe.

对于核电和天然气行业，奥巴马的计划既不鼓励也不抑制，没有指定的市场份额，也没有任何补贴。照目前来看，天然气行业能够对付，但除非在生产成本削减上取得突破，否则新的核电项目在美国看起来和欧洲一样难以上马。

Missing from the proposals is any new push to develop science that will increase the efficiency of energy supply and consum. That is a pity as low-income consumers in countries such as India need fuel sources that are both low cost and low carbon if climate change is to be beaten. But policies directed to developing such technology may come later — there is, after all, more than a year until the election.

计划没有提及推动科技发展、力求提高能源供应和使用效率的任何举措。这令人遗憾，因为要解决气候变化问题，印度等低收入国家需要低成本且低碳的燃料来源。但鼓励此类技术发展的政策可能稍后会出台——毕竟，距离大选还有一年多时间。

That brings us to the politics of Mr Obama’s plan. It is worthy of Frank Underwood, Kevin Spacey’s Machiavellian anti-hero in the Netflix series, House of Cards . In the black arts of politics, one of the most precious achievements is to define the differences between you and your opponents on your own terms. An is to force opponents into positions they wish to avoid. A third is to divide them against themselves. Mr Obama has managed all three in one go.

现在来看看奥巴马计划的政治性。该计划让人想到了凯文史派西(Kevin Spacey)在Netflix系列剧《纸牌屋》(House of Cards)中饰演的不择手段的反派角色弗兰克褠德伍德(Frank Underwood)。在政治游戏中，最难得的成就之一是用自己的主张界定你和对手之间的差异。另一个是迫使对手陷入他们希望避免的局面。第三个是让他们内讧。奥巴马一举做到了这三点。

The Republicans predictably walked into the trap. Marco Rubio, the Florida senator seeking the Republican nomination, instantly declared the policy “catastrophic”. Mitch McConnell, the Republican majority leader in the Senate, who campaigned for his seat last year on the slogan “Coal Guns Freedom”, called for individual states to disobey the new laws. Even Jeb Bush, who has been trying to sound rational on the question, was forced to condemn the president’s initiative as “irresponsible”.

共和党就像预计的那样落入了圈套。寻求共和党总统候选人提名的佛罗里达州参议员马可脠比奥(Marco Rubio)立即宣告这项政策是“灾难性的”。参议院共和党领袖米奇麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)呼吁各州不理会新法律——麦康奈尔去年在竞选参议员时打出的口号是“煤炭、枪和自由”。就连一直试图在这个问题上理性表态的杰布布什(Jeb Bush)也被迫指责称，奥巴马的计划“不负责任”。

Given the nature of the Republican voter base and the views of big donors such as the billionaire Koch brothers, those who seek the Republican nomination can do little else. The problem for them (and the beauty of Mr Obama’s political play) is that, as they walk in the direction of those who will determine which of them is the candidate next year, they are walking away from the views of the voters who will determine the outcome of the election. According to the public polls, for instance from the Yale Project on Climate Change, global warming has become a real concern. Coal is seen as dirty and unhealthy. Mrs Clinton, assuming she secures the Democratic nomination, may not win some of the coal states. One of the fascinating subtexts of her initiative, and of the president’s proposals, is the deliberate distancing of the Democratic leadership from organised labour, including the once powerful mining unions. But the calculation must be that she will gain overall by being on the side of the future.

鉴于共和党选民基础的性质以及亿万富翁科赫兄弟等大手笔捐助人的观点，寻求共和党总统候选人提名的人士几乎别无选择。他们的问题（以及奥巴马政治手段的高明之处）在于，在迎合那些决定明年总统候选人的人群之际，他们与决定大选结果的广大选民的观点疏远了。例如，耶鲁气候变化项目(Yale Project on Climate Change)的民调显示，全球变暖已经成为公众的切实担忧。煤炭被认为是肮脏和不健康的。假设希拉里获得民主党总统候选人提名，她可能不会赢得一些煤炭大州的支持。在她的提议以及奥巴马的计划中，一个耐人寻味的潜台词是，民主党领导人故意疏远劳工组织，包括曾经影响力巨大的矿业工会。但他们的盘算肯定是，顺应历史潮流，站在未来这一边，将使希拉里在大选中获得更多选票。

Mr Obama’s proposals are detailed and complicated, and will now be subject to every sort of legal challenge. They are unlikely to be implemented in full. In themselves they will not solve the global problem of climate change, nor force any other country to follow suit. But they do serve to define the direction of American energy policy and also of American electoral politics.

奥巴马的提议详尽而复杂，将会面对各种法律挑战。它们不太可能完全得到落实。就这些提议本身而言，它们不会解决气候变化这一全球问题，也不会迫使其他国家效仿。但它们的确有助于界定美国能源政策以及美国选举政治的方向。