巴拉克奥巴马(Barack Obama)在核武方面的政治遗产

Nothing better captures the paradox of Barack Obama’s presidency than his legacy on nuclear weapons. On Friday Mr Obama will become the first US president to visit the Japanese city of Hiroshima, 70 years after the US became the first — and last — country to use the atomic bomb.

没有什么事情比巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)在核武方面的政治遗产更能反映出他总统任期内的自相矛盾之处了。本周五，他将成为第一位访问日本广岛的在任美国总统。70年前，美国成为首个、也是迄今唯一一个使用原子弹的国家。

Though Mr Obama will stop short of apologising for the bombing of Hiroshima, his visit will be richly symbolic. It may even create political room for Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, to break precedent by visiting Pearl Harbor, scene of the 1941 attack by Japan against the US.

尽管奥巴马不会为美国当年在广岛投放核弹的行为道歉，但他的到访将带有浓厚的象征意味。此行甚至可能创造政治空间，让日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)史无前例地访问珍珠港——1941年日本在那里袭击了美国。

The Hiroshima visit will showcase Mr Obama at his best. As the peoples of Cuba, Vietnam and Iran can attest, no US president has taken greater risks to bury the hatchet on past enmities.

广岛之行将展现处于最佳状态的奥巴马。正如古巴、越南、伊朗人民可以证明的那样，从没有哪位美国总统冒这么大风险去化解过去的积怨。

Yet few US presidents have raised hopes so unrealistically high. Seven years ago Mr Obama promised to work for a “world free of nuclear weapons” in a speech in Prague. As he prepares to leave office, Mr Obama will bequeath what nuclear analysts call the “second nuclear age”. In Prague he said: “As the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon, the United States has a moral responsibility to act.”

不过，也几乎没有哪位美国总统让外界对自己寄予如此高的、几乎不切实际的希望。7年前，奥巴马在布拉格发表的一次演讲中承诺，将致力于建立一个“没有核武器的世界”。在他准备离任之际，奥巴马将留给世界的是核分析人士所称的“第二个核时代”。在布拉格，他曾表示：“作为唯一一个使用过核武器的核大国，美国负有道义上的责任要采取行动。”

Mr Obama’s biggest single action since then has been to embark on the largest nuclear weapons modernisation programme in history — a $1tn, 30-year upgrade to the US nuclear force, scripted by the Pentagon. His decision, which many believe was presented as a fait accompli by the US nuclear bureaucracy , is likely to outlast all his others put together.

从那以来，奥巴马采取的最大行动便是，开启史上最大规模的核武现代化升级计划。这一由五角大楼(Pentagon)起草的计划将耗资1万亿美元、耗时30年，对美国核力量进行升级。很多人认为，奥巴马的这一决定是作为既成事实、由美国的核官僚宣布的。这一决定的影响可能会比他的其他所有计划都更长远。

Mr Obama has often been criticised for the contrast between his words and his actions — most notably in the war on Islamist terrorism, where he banned the term “war on terror” while redoubling drone warfare.

奥巴马常因言行不一而受到批评——最显著的例子体现在打击伊斯兰恐怖主义的战争中，他禁止白宫内部使用“反恐战争”一词，同时却加强了无人机作战。

But the gap between his nuclear promises and reality is even starker. He agreed to the $1tn upgrade in exchange for Republican support for his nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia.

但是，他的核承诺与现实之间的差距甚至更加明显。他同意了耗资1万亿美元的核武升级计划，以换取共和党支持他与俄罗斯签订的削减核武器条约。

Though the spending spree was meant to conserve the US’s existing arsenal, it is far more ambitious than advertised. Whole classes of warhead will be replaced. Alert warning times will be shortened.

尽管这一疯狂支出是为了保养美国现有的军械库，但是实际上它的野心远远超过官方宣传的程度。某些类别的弹头将全部被替换。警报时间将缩短。

And the US will retain its nuclear triad on air, land and sea. Mr Obama made cosmetic changes to the US posture in 2010, which included the promise not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries. But he retained the “first use” doctrine against nuclear weapons countries such as China and Russia.

同时，美国将继续保留海、陆、空三位一体的核力量。2010年，奥巴马对美国的姿态做出了象征性的改变，其中包括承诺不对无核国家使用核武器。但是，他保留了对中国和俄罗斯等有核国家采取“先发制人”核打击的原则。

Nor are experts any more confident than before in the effectiveness of US nuclear safety. In July 2012, three religious activists, including an 82-year-old nun with a heart condition, broke into the Oak Ridge Y12 facility in Tennessee — known as the “Fort Knox” of uranium. They spent 45 minutes spraying the facility with graffiti before being arrested.

也没有哪个专家对美国核安全的有效性比以前更有信心。2012年7月，三名宗教行动主义者（包括一位患有心脏病的82岁修女）闯入了位于田纳西州的橡树岭Y12 (Oak Ridge Y12)核设施——被称为储藏铀的“诺克斯堡”（Fort Knox，美联储的金库——译者注）。他们在那里乱涂乱画了45分钟后才被逮捕。

A fifth of Oak Ridge’s cameras and sensor monitors did not work, enabling the protesters to cut through three fences without being detected. It was guarded by a subsidiary of G4S, the UK private security company. Mr Obama’s programme redoubles the reliance on automated security systems monitored by private contractors.

当时橡树岭五分之一的摄像头和传感器监控器都坏了，使三名抗议者得以穿过三道围栏而未被发现。当时负责守卫那里的是英国私人安保公司杰富仕(G4S)的一家子公司。奥巴马的计划大大增加了对私人承包商监控的自动化安保系统的依赖。

On the plus side, Mr Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran could prevent what might otherwise have turned into a full-blown nuclear arms race in the Middle East. That too will be part of his legacy. He has also chivvied other nuclear countries to reduce uranium stockpiles and improve safety. Taken as a whole, however, the world looks less safe today than when he took office.

从有利的方面来说，奥巴马与伊朗签订的核协议或许掐灭了中东全面核军备竞赛的苗头。这也将是他政治遗产的一部分。他还通过不懈的努力，促使其他拥核国家削减了铀储备并提高了核安全性。然而，整体来看，如今的世界似乎比他上任时更不安全了。

China, India, Pakistan and Russia are all following the US lead in modernising their arsenals. North Korea is considerably closer to developing a nuclear warhead with intercontinental reach.

中国、印度、巴基斯坦和俄罗斯均效仿美国开始对各自的军械库进行现代化升级。朝鲜已经相当接近于研发出洲际核弹头。

In Prague, Mr Obama said: “In a strange turn of history, the threat of global nuclear war has gone down, but the risk of nuclear attack has gone up.”

在布拉格，奥巴马曾表示：“世事难料，如今爆发全球核战争的威胁降低了，核袭击的风险却升高了。”

Seven years on, it is hard to argue that the first part of that statement still holds.

七年过去了，如今很难主张这句话的前半部分仍然站得住脚。