奥巴马难得的胜利周 Obama’s presidential renaissance

Sometimes change tiptoes up and surprises you. There could be no better illustration of America’s dramatic week than the White House lit up in rainbow colours as the confederate flag was lowered in the south. There was no starker moment than President Barack Obama urging the Christian doctrine of grace on the bible belt in the town where the first shot of the civil war was fired. Last week reality put the most far-fetched episode of West Wing into the shade — and there is probably more to come. Is Mr Obama finally ushering in the change he promised?

有时变革悄然而至，让你感到惊讶。没有什么能比“联邦旗”在南方降下，而白宫点亮各色彩灯更能说明美国戏剧性的一周。没有什么比美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)在打响南北战争第一枪的《圣经》地带(Bible belt)小镇，强调基督教恩典教义更让人吃惊的时刻了。哪怕是《白宫风云》(West Wing)中最让人难以置信的剧集，与上周的现实相比仍相形见绌——未来还可能出现更多这样的情况。奥巴马终于带来他承诺的变革了吗？

The optics certainly favour that view. A week ago Mr Obama faced the spectre of his signature healthcare bill unravelling in the Supreme Court and the defeat of his big trade agenda in the Pacific and the Atlantic. In either case, his presidency would have turned rapidly lame duck. But a week is a long time in politics, as they say. Both disasters were averted — one by a conservative-majority Supreme Court, the other at the hands of a Republican Congress. Events peaked with what Mr Obama described as the legal “thunderbolt” that put same sex marriage on an equal footing across all 50 states.

乐观者当然支持这一观点。一周之前，奥巴马还面临着其标志性的医改法案被最高法院否决，以及分别横跨太平洋和大西洋的两大贸易议程遭遇挫败的幽灵。如果其中任何一种情况发生，奥巴马都会迅速变成跛脚鸭总统。但正如他们所讲，一周对于政治而言很漫长。两场灾难都得以幸免——分别归功于保守派占多数的最高法院和共和党控制的国会。事态发展的最高潮是美国最高法院关于同性婚姻在全美50个州合法的裁决，这被奥巴马称为法律“霹雳”。

Then came his eulogy to Clementa Pinckney, the pastor slain the previous week by a white supremacist along with eight of his congregation. With a force no other president could have summoned, Mr Obama drew on the revivalist oratory of black church tradition to shame the culture of hatred that led to the massacre. Even by Mr Obama’s standards, it was a striking performance that combined a repudiation of the south’s racist history with a rallying cry to a new era of social justice. Those who saw it could sense the “arc of history” bending in Mr Obama’s direction and the fierce relevance of his story. Mr Obama went to Charleston to speak at a funeral. He left at the emotional pinnacle of his presidency.

接着是他向牧师克莱门塔•平克尼(Clementa Pinckney)致悼词，平克尼与八名会众在之前的一周被一名白人至上主义者杀害。带着一种其他总统不具备的力量，奥巴马运用黑人教堂传统的复兴主义式演讲，谴责了导致这场大屠杀的仇恨文化。即使按奥巴马本人的标准，这也是一场惊人的演讲，它将对南方种族主义历史的批判与对社会正义新时代的强烈呼吁结合在一起。那些看到奥巴马演讲的人，可以感觉到“历史的穹顶”正向奥巴马的方向弯曲，也能感受到他的演讲的强大感染力。奥巴马来到查尔斯顿市，在葬礼上发表了演讲，在达到他总统生涯中以情感打动人的顶峰后离开。

Yet change is a slippery thing. Five years ago, when Mr Obama signed the Affordable Care Act, he said: “This is what change looks like.” It was a defiant statement after months of bitter wrangling. Last week, after countless Republican attempts to repeal “Obamacare”, and dozens of lawsuits, the Supreme Court rejected the latest challenge to the law. More in relief than defiance, Mr Obama repeated his 2010 sentiments: the law was here to stay. This time, however, he had an eye on the 2016 election. Every Republican candidate has vowed to abolish the statute if they are elected to the White House. Given the likelihood there will be a Republican Congress after 2016, Mr Obama’s most consequential reform is still not entirely safe. There are also more lawsuits pending. Even now it does not qualify as change you can take to the bank.

然而，变革并非易事。奥巴马五年前签署《平价医疗法》(Affordable Care Act)时说：“这就是变革的样子。”这是几个月激烈争吵后的挑衅性声明。在共和党无数次试图废除“奥巴马医改”(Obamacare)以及发生许多诉讼之后，上周最高法院驳回了对该法律的最新挑战。奥巴马以一种更显宽慰而非挑衅的口吻重申了他2010年的观点：这一法律会存续下去。但这次，他还要考虑2016年大选。每位共和党竞选人都发誓，如果他们入主白宫，将废除该项法令。考虑到2016年之后可能是共和党控制国会，奥巴马最重要的改革仍然并非完全无虞。而且，还会有更多诉讼。即使现在，你也不能把它当成板上钉钉的变革。

The most durable changes usually come from below. That is the case with gay marriage. Opponents of last week’s Supreme Court ruling claim it amounted to “legislating from the bench”, much as in 1973 when the court legalised abortion in Roe v Wade. In fact, the Supreme Court was putting its seal on what has been a vertiginous shift in US society. A decade ago, more than two-thirds of Americans opposed same sex marriage. Now roughly 60 per cent support it. Even before last week’s ruling it was legal in 38 states. Only in 2012 did Mr Obama feel bold enough to add his own backing and then only because Joe Biden, the vice-president, let slip his support. Mr Obama has not played a big role in the gay rights revolution. But has ridden the wave well.

最为持久的变革通常来自于底层。同性婚姻就是这样的情况。反对美国最高法院上周裁决的人声称，该裁决相当于“法官一意孤行”，与1973年法院在罗伊诉韦德案(Roe V. Wade)中使堕胎合法化的情况类似。事实上，最高法院是在对美国社会的一个令人目眩的转变盖棺定论。10年前，超过2/3的美国人反对同性婚姻。如今，约有60%的人支持同性婚姻。即使在上周最高法院裁决前，同性婚姻已经在38个州合法。到2012年奥巴马才感到有足够的勇气表示自己的支持，而那时只是因为副总统乔•拜登(Joe Biden)把他的支持态度说漏了嘴。在同性恋权利革命的道路上，奥巴马并没有发挥出多么重要的作用，但他确实是与时逐势的高手。

Other kinds of change are so glacial they are hard to detect. Such is the case in US race relations. Many thought Mr Obama’s election in 2008 would finally close a chapter on centuries of racial division. But as Mr Obama said in his eulogy, nothing can be taken for granted — even under America’s first black president. Tensions between many US police forces and African Americans are as heightened today as at any time in recent memory. Large chunks of US society remain institutionally racist — from prison sentencing to job interview bias. The wealth gap between African Americans and whites is wider than when Mr Obama took office. Meanwhile, politics in the US south remains stubbornly wedded to its “Lost Cause”.

其他变革太过缓慢，以至于很难察觉。比如美国的种族关系。很多人认为奥巴马2008年当选总统最终将终结美国长达数世纪的种族分裂章节。但是正如奥巴马在悼词中所说的那样，凡事不能想当然——即使是在美国第一位黑人总统的治理下。如今美国警方和非裔美国人之间的紧张关系，严重程度与近期记忆中的任何时候没有两样。大部分的美国社会从制度上仍然带有种族主义色彩——从监狱判刑到求职面试的偏见等方方面面。如今非裔美国人与白人之间的财富差距甚至比奥巴马就任时还要大。与此同时，美国南方政治仍然顽固地坚持着“注定失败的努力”(Lost Cause)。

Will Charleston make it different? Following the massacre, some southern states finally agreed to get rid of the Confederate flag. But it is a symbol. A bigger problem is the ease with which fanatics can acquire guns, something against which Mr Obama has long railed. He reiterated his plea in Charleston last week. But the chances of Congress doing anything to hinder gun sales before he leaves office are very slim.

查尔斯顿事件会带来不同吗？在枪击案发生后，南方一些州最终同意放弃“联邦旗”。但这是一种象征。更大的问题在于，狂热分子可以轻松获得枪支，奥巴马长久以来一直指责这一点。上周，他在查尔斯顿重申了自己的呼吁。但是国会在奥巴马离任前采取行动来阻止枪支销售的可能性微乎其微。

Sometimes things change so that they can stay the same. Gun control is the American north’s lost cause. At other times, such as with the healthcare law, change is painfully built, “brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand”, as Mr Obama put it after his first election. Last week brought to the fore both the majesty and limits of the US presidency. It would not have been the same on anyone else’s watch.

有时事情发生改变才能保持原样。枪支管控是美国北方“注定失败的努力”。在其他情况下，比如医疗法，变革是在痛苦中“一砖一瓦，千辛万苦”地堆砌出来的，正如奥巴马在第一次当选后的演讲中所说。上周的事件同时凸显了美国总统之位的至高权威和局限性。换成任何其他人在奥巴马的位子上，情况都不会一样。