英国大选结束 最后民调仍显僵局

David Cameron and Ed Miliband go into polling day with a final series of opinion polls putting Conservatives and Labour still neck and neck: five weeks of campaigning has failed to break the deadlock.

戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)和埃德•米利班德(Ed Miliband)迎来投票日之际，最后的一系列民意调查显示保守党(Conservatives)和工党(Labour)仍然并驾齐驱：5周的竞选活动未能打破僵局。

According to the political betting market, Mr Cameron is reckoned to be on course to win roughly 290 seats to Mr Miliband’s 265, a result that might just allow the prime minister to cling on to power with Liberal Democrat support.

政治赌博市场的赔率显示，卡梅伦被认为将赢得大约290个席位，而米利班德赢得265个席位，这一结果或许刚好让现任首相在自由民主党(Liberal Democrat)的支持下继续掌权。

But the Labour leader has more potential allies in a hung parliament, hence the equal odds some bookmakers offer on Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband becoming Britain’s next prime minister.

但是，工党领袖在“无多数议会”（hung parliament，即没有一个政党获得议会多数席位——译者注）中拥有更多潜在盟友，因此一些博彩公司对卡梅伦或米利班德成为英国下一届首相提供相同赔率。

However last-minute shifts of voters in closely contested seats — or widespread tactical voting, as urged by some newspapers — could change everything in an election of fine margins.

然而，竞争激烈的选区选民在最后时刻的转变——或者某些报纸所鼓励的广泛战术性投票——可能在一场得票率接近的选举中改变一切。

Polling organisations have spent the final hours of the campaign trying to detect such shifts, such as the “shy Tory” phenomenon that saw an 11th-hour increase in support for John Major in the tight 1992 election.

民调机构在竞选的最后几小时试着去发现这些改变，比如1992年激烈的大选中约翰•梅杰(John Major)的支持率在最后一刻增加的“羞涩的保守党人”现象。

Some pollsters have concluded that if there is a late shift, it may only happen at the moment voters enter the polling station.

一些民调专家总结称，如果此次大选出现最后一刻的转向，也可能只发生在选民步入投票站的那一刻。

YouGov on Wednesday put both Labour and Tories on 34 points; ICM had them tied on 35 points; TNS gave the Tories a one-point lead; Opinium’s final survey also gave the Conservatives a one-point advantage.

周三，YouGov民调显示工党和保守党支持率均为34%； ICM民调显示两党支持率均为35%； TNS显示保守党领先1个百分点； Opinium最后一次调查也显示保守党领先1个百分点。

The final polls suggest Ukip is the third biggest party nationally in terms of voter support, typically polling 11-12 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats around 9.

最后几次民调似乎表明，在选民支持方面，英国独立党(Ukip)是全国第三大政党，支持率通常为11%至12%，而自由民主党支持率在9%左右。