政治僵局损害美国全球领导力

The magical thing about America’s federal system is that when the centre stalls, the rest keeps calm and carries on. The US economic recovery is happening despite engine failure in Washington. This is just as well since there are few engineers to hand. No such fail-safe device exists for foreign policy. It used to be said that US politics stopped at the water’s edge. But the atrophy is seeping into every corner of US global engagement — from Israeli relations to Pacific trade talks. The costs are largely invisible. Yet there is a real price for the country’s growing unpredictability on the world stage.

美国联邦体制的神奇一面是，当中央政府停摆时，其余机构能够淡定地照常运转。美国经济正在复苏，尽管华盛顿引擎失灵。这倒也不错，因为美国手头也没几个工程师能把引擎修好。外交政策方面则不存在这样的保险装置。过去人们常说，美国政治止于海岸线。但是从美以关系到太平洋贸易谈判，美国在外交领域各个角落都在萎缩。这种萎缩的代价在很大程度上是看不见的。然而美国在世界舞台上的表现变得越来越不可预测，这有一个切实的代价。

Things were meant to be taking a turn for the better by now. When Republicans took control of Congress in November a line was supposedly drawn under the previous six years’ impasse. Until then, they could block everything the president wanted safe in the knowledge that inattentive voters would blame the Democrats. Once Republicans had control of both chambers, voters would hold them to account. That forecast already looks too rosy. The Republicans are as opposed to Barack Obama’s domestic agenda as before and the Democrats are in disarray. Instead of breaking the logjam, gridlock is spreading like an inkblot into US foreign policy.

情况本有望出现转机。在去年11月共和党掌控国会的时候，先前持续6年的僵局原本理应告一段落。在此之前，人们预言，共和党议员之所以敢于封杀美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)想要通过的任何提案，是因为他们知道粗心的选民将会怪罪到民主党头上。一旦参众两院都被共和党控制，选民们就会怪罪共和党。这种预言现在看来过于乐观了。共和党和以前一样反对奥巴马的所有国内议程，而民主党人则四分五裂。僵局不仅没有被打破，反而像墨水迹一样沁入美国的外交政策。

The biggest casualty is the US’s ability to manage the chaos in the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu’s victory in last week’s Israel election came after he had thumbed his nose at Mr Obama in the most partisan address ever given by a foreigner to the US Congress. For all intents, Mr Netanyahu was offered membership of the Republican party. The following week 47 Republican senators, or nearly half the upper chamber, told Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei they would rescind any nuclear deal struck by Mr Obama. They will now work hand in glove with the chairman of the Republicans in the Middle East — also known as “Bibi” — to sabotage their president’s initiative.

受伤害最大的是美国管理中东乱局的能力。本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)在不久前举行的以色列大选中获胜，此前内塔尼亚胡曾在一场向美国国会发表的演讲中对奥巴马表示了蔑视——这场演讲是外国人向美国国会发表的最具党派色彩的演讲。无论从哪方面来看，内塔尼亚胡都像是被授予了共和党党员身份。在随后的一周里，47名共和党参议员（几乎是参议院议员总数的一半）向伊朗的阿亚图拉•阿里•哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)表示，他们将废除奥巴马签署的任何核协议。眼下，他们将与内塔尼亚胡（昵称“比比(Bibi)”）这位“共和党中东地区主席”合作，来破坏奥巴马的倡议。

Capitol Hill’s disunity is also hindering Mr Obama’s ability to wage war on the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as Isis. Part of it is self-inflicted. By declaring that he will not put US boots on the ground, Mr Obama has limited the Pentagon’s ability to advise the Iraqi army on the battlefield — much to Baghdad’s annoyance. Iraqis partly blame Mr Obama for their failure so far to recapture Tikrit. But Capitol Hill is making the problem worse. Mr Obama has requested authorisation to fight Isis. Republicans believe he is asking for too little authority and Democrats believe he is asking for too much. The upshot is that Mr Obama is unlikely to receive approval from Congress, which will further cramp his political leeway to wage war on Isis. Until recently, the fight against Islamist terrorism was mostly bipartisan. It, too, is now gridlocked.

国会山的不团结也影响了奥巴马打击“伊拉克与黎凡特伊斯兰国”(Isis)的能力。这在一定程度上是咎由自取。奥巴马曾宣称，他不会派遣地面部队作战，从而限制了五角大楼为战场上的伊拉克军队提供指导的能力，这让巴格达大为不满。伊拉克人一定程度上将他们迄今未能收复提克里特归咎于奥巴马。但国会山让问题变得更加糟糕。奥巴马要求获得打击Isis的授权。共和党人认为，他要求的授权太少了，民主党人则认为他要得太多了。结果是，奥巴马不太可能获得国会的授权，这将进一步限制他打击Isis的政治回旋余地。就在不久前，两党基本上还都是同意打击伊斯兰恐怖主义的。现在，两党在这个问题上也陷入了僵持。

The threat to Mr Obama’s trade agenda is also growing. To wrap up the 12-member Pacific trade talks, he needs fast-track negotiating authority from the US Congress. Each of his predecessors has received it. Here was one area — free trade — where a Republican majority could work in the White House’s favour. Alas, more wishful thinking. The left remains implacably opposed to any trade agreement — the AFL-CIO, America’s largest union, has promised to stop funding any Democrat who votes for the Pacific deal. Meanwhile, Tea Party Republicans are loath to grant Mr Obama plenipotentiary negotiating powers. Their support for free trade is eclipsed by their dislike of Mr Obama. With each week, his trade ambitions look a little more wobbly.

奥巴马贸易议程面临的威胁也在增加。为了完成有12个成员国参加的太平洋贸易谈判，他需要获得美国国会的“快车道”(fast track)谈判授权。他的每一位前任都获得了这种授权。白宫原本以为，在自由贸易这一个议题上，绝大多数共和党人总算可以顺自己意。唉，没想到这还是一厢情愿。左翼依然坚决反对任何贸易协议——美国最大的工会劳联-产联(AFL-CIO)起誓不再向投票支持太平洋协议的民主党人提供任何资金。与此同时，茶党共和党议员又不愿授予奥巴马全权谈判权。他们对奥巴马的憎恶盖过了他们对自由贸易的支持。每过一个星期，奥巴马打造贸易协议的抱负就显得暗淡几分。

Gridlock is even undercutting Mr Obama’s “pivot to Asia”. Observers blame him for the fact that US allies, led by Britain, are rushing to join China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank against America’s wishes. Mr Obama has failed to spell out the conditions under which the US would lift its opposition. But the problem originates on Capitol Hill. China’s desire to create a parallel set of multilateral institutions stems from the US’s inability to reform existing ones. US Congress is alone in refusing to endorse IMF reform — an essential step towards giving China a voice that better reflects its economic size.

僵局甚至会破坏奥巴马的“转向亚洲”战略。以英国为首的美国盟友不顾美国的反对，竞相加入中国的亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)，观察人士认为奥巴马应对此负责。奥巴马一直未能阐明美国将在何种条件下放弃反对。但这个问题的种子是国会山埋下的。中国之所以想要创建一套平行的国际金融机构，其根本原因在于美国无力改革现有的那些国际金融机构。不同意国际货币基金组织(IMF)改革的只有美国国会，而要给予中国与其经济体量相符的更多话语权，改革IMF是关键一步。

On some measures China is now the world’s biggest economy, yet it has barely a sixth of America’s IMF weighting. Two US presidents — George W Bush and Mr Obama — negotiated the IMF reforms. Yet Congress is refusing to comply. Who can really blame Beijing for striking out on its own? If the US cannot accommodate a rising China in the bodies it leads, China will create its own. The AIIB controversy is far from esoteric. It is within such institutions that wrangling over future global leadership will take place.

按某些标准衡量，中国如今已经是全球最大的经济体，但它在IMF中的投票权仍然只有美国的六分之一。美国两任总统——小布什(George W Bush)和奥巴马——都曾提议改革IMF，但均被美国国会否决。谁能真的指责中国政府单干呢？如果美国在自己主导的机构中容不下中国，中国当然会创建自己的机构。亚投行的论战并不深奥。关于明日全球领导权的争吵，正是在此类机构中进行的。

At times of great flux, it is tempting to reach back to history for reassurance. There is nothing new about Congress making a mess of US foreign policy. Its refusal to ratify Woodrow Wilson’s League of Nations in 1919 was more fateful than anything taking place now. America’s absence from the world stage created a vacuum that helped pave the way for Hitler. That is hardly a comforting precedent. Over the past seven decades, Congress has for the most part played a supporting role to US foreign policy. That era is fading rapidly. Foreigners can no longer dismiss US gridlock as a local eccentricity. It is imposing an increasingly steep tax on America’s global leadership.

在大变迁时代，人们会忍不住重温历史来寻求慰藉。国会在美国外交政策上捣乱并不是什么新鲜事。1919年它否决了伍德罗•威尔逊(Woodrow Wilson)创建国际联盟(League of Nations)的提案，这比如今发生的任何事都更加致命。美国当时缺席国际舞台，使得国际政治出现了真空地带，为希特勒(Hitler)的崛起铺平了道路。这个先例很难让人感到安慰。在过去70年里，美国国会在大多数时候都扮演着美国外交政策支持者的角色。那个时代正在迅速消亡。外国人已不能继续将美国的政治僵局仅仅视为这个国家的一件怪事而不拿它当一回事了。它正在对美国的全球领导力造成日益严重的影响。