地缘政治风险促使全球公共投资者增持黄金

The gold reserves of the world’s biggest public sector investors reached an 18-year high as they hoarded the precious metal after Donald Trump’s election and the Brexit vote added to geopolitical uncertainty.

世界各大公共部门投资者的黄金储备达到18年来的高位。在唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)当选和英国公投退欧加大地缘政治不确定性之后，此类投资者积极囤积这种贵重金属。

State investors increased their net gold holdings by 377 tonnes to an estimated 31,000 tonnes last year — the highest level since 1999, according to a study of 750 central banks, public pension plans and sovereign wealth funds with $33.5tn in assets.

针对资产总和达到33.5万亿美元的750家央行、公共养老金计划和主权财富基金的一项研究显示，国家投资者的净黄金持有量去年增加377吨，达到3.1万吨，是1999年以来的最高水平。

Danae Kyriakopoulou, chief economist at the Official Monetary and Financial Forum (Omfif), the central bankers’ forum that compiled the research, said state investors had flocked to the precious metal because of its status as a “haven asset” and to take advantage of rising prices.

从事这项研究的央行官员论坛——国际货币金融机构官方论坛(OMFIF)首席经济学家达娜·基里亚科普卢(Danae Kyriakopoulou)表示，国家投资者竞相投资黄金，是因为这种贵金属的“避风港资产”地位，也是为了利用其价格不断上涨。

“There was a lot of political uncertainty in the past year. There were big political shocks with Brexit and Trump, which have driven investors back to gold,” she said.

“过去一年出现了很多政治不确定性。英国退欧和特朗普都产生了巨大的政治冲击，推动投资者重返黄金，”基里亚科普卢表示。

The price of gold surged after the unexpected Brexit vote in June and immediately after the election of Mr Trump in November, although it fell in the final weeks of the year.

去年6月英国选民意外投票支持退欧之后，以及11月特朗普当选后的短期内，金价均曾出现飙升，尽管其在接近年底的几周有所下降。

Alistair Hewitt, head of market intelligence at the World Gold Council, said state-backed investors had also increased their gold stores as a hedge against the stronger dollar. The dollar is up 15 per cent against the pound over the past year.

世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)市场情报部门负责人阿利斯泰尔·休伊特(Alistair Hewitt)表示，国家背景的投资者增持黄金也是为了对冲美元走强。过去一年期间，美元兑英镑汇率上升了15%。

“Central banks and public institutions have been adding to their strategic gold holdings for a number of years,” Mr Hewitt said. “A lot of emerging market central banks hold significant amounts of US dollars, and they have bought gold as a hedge against this concentrated currency exposure.”

“各国央行和公共机构多年来一直在增加战略黄金储备，”休伊特表示。“很多新兴市场的央行持有大量美元资产，他们买入黄金以对冲这种集中的货币敞口。”

The central banks in Russia, China and Kazakhstan are among the big investors that bought gold last year, according of Omfif.

据国际货币金融机构官方论坛介绍，俄罗斯、中国和哈萨克斯坦的央行去年跻身于最大黄金买家之列。

Public sector investors are also likely storing up gold as a bet against rising inflation, said Saker Nusseibeh, chief executive of Hermes Investment Management, the ￡30bn fund house. “Gold is the refuge of uncertainty.”

旗下管理300亿英镑资产的基金公司Hermes Investment Management首席执行官萨克?努赛贝(Saker Nusseibeh)表示，公共部门投资者增持黄金也很可能是为了对冲通胀上扬，“黄金是不确定性的避难所”。

According to Omfif’s study, geopolitical risk was the biggest concern for pension plans, sovereign wealth funds and central banks over the next 12 months.

根据国际货币金融机构官方论坛的研究，地缘政治风险是各国养老金计划、主权财富基金和央行在未来12个月期间最大的担忧。

Over the next 24 months, state-backed investors are increasingly on the hunt for so-called real assets, such as property and renewable energy, in an attempt to generate returns, the research found.

这项研究发现，未来24个月，国家背景的投资者将日益寻觅所谓的实物资产，如房地产和可再生能源，以求获得回报。

The People’s Bank of China remained the world’s largest public investors with $3tn in assets, ahead of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund. Norway’s oil fund ranked as the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund.

中国人民银行(PBoC)仍是世界上最大的公共投资者，总资产3万亿美元，超过日本的政府养老金投资基金(GPIF)。挪威的石油基金是世界最大的主权财富基金。