世界食品价格上涨可能暗藏政治风险

U.S. food prices are climbing , but higher costs for everything from wheat to soybeans to coffee could have an even greater impact on consumers in emerging markets.

美国的食品价格日益攀升，但是包括小麦、大豆和咖啡在内的各种食品成本的上涨可能给新兴市场消费者带来更大的影响。

Consumers in developing countries spend a greater amount of their household income on food, compared with richer nations.

与发达国家相比，发展中国家消费者的食品支出占其家庭收入的比例更大。

The trend has economists and political analysts on alert, since higher food prices were a catalyst for protests and riots during price spikes in 2008 and 2011.

目前的趋势令经济学家和政治分析人士保持警惕，因为在2008年和2011年食品价格飙升期间，这种趋势曾成为抗议活动和动乱的催化剂。

'If you look at the Arab Spring, this was anteceded by a significant rise in food prices,' said Christopher Garman, head of emerging markets at Eurasia Group. 'When you have some countries that are more vulnerable from rising food prices these are also where you have segments of society that are more disenfranchised.'

欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)新兴市场部门主管加曼(Christopher Garman)说，“阿拉伯之春”爆发之前，食品价格曾明显上涨；那些更容易受到食品价格上涨影响的国家，也是社会一些阶层更受压迫的地方。

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's monthly food-price index in February rose 5.2 points from January, the sharpest rise since mid-2012.

据联合国粮食及农业组织(The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization)公布的数据显示，2月份食品价格指数较1月份上升5.2个点，为2012年中期以来最快增速。

Drought in California, Brazil and Southeast Asia has been fueling the price rise, crimping output of beef, palm oil, a host of fruits and vegetables, and other goods.

加州、巴西和东南亚地区的干旱天气一直在推动食品价格上涨，抑制了牛肉、棕榈油、大量水果和蔬菜等食品的产出。

'In [the U.S.] it's not such a big deal but when you go to poor countries, in Africa or South Asia, you have people that spend half or three quarters of their income on food,' said John Baffes, a senior economist at the World Bank.

世界银行(World Bank)高级经济学家John Baffes说，这在美国不算什么大问题，但是，在非洲或南亚的贫穷国家，人们的食品开支要占到其收入的一半，或者四分之三。

Mr. Baffes said another two months of similar price increases could become worrying.

Baffes还说，如果这种物价涨势再持续两个月，可能会引发担忧。

This is particularly touchy year for a rise in food prices since many countries, including Latin America's largest economy Brazil, as well as Colombia, are holding presidential elections.

今年食品价格的上涨正值一个非常敏感的时期，因为包括拉丁美洲最大经济体巴西和哥伦比亚在内的许多国家将举行总统大选。

The government of President Dilma Rousseff has faced massive protests on issues from bus fares to resentment over the country's spend on the World Cup soccer tournament instead of on health care, education and other social services.

巴西总统罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)领导的政府已面临大规模的抗议活动，抗议针对的问题包括公交票价，以及不满该国把钱都花在承办世界杯(World Cup)而不是医疗保健、教育等社会服务上。

The drought is threatening to drive up electricity costs for this heavily hydropower-reliant nation and has already caused blackouts.

在这个高度依赖水利发电的国家，干旱可能会推高其电力成本。这种情况已经引发断电。

Its currency has been trading near seven-month lows, which would make essential U.S.-dollar denominated imports like gasoline more expensive.

该国货币一直位于7个月低点附近，这将导致以美元计价的进口必需品（比如汽油）更加昂贵。

'My personal opinion is we are going to have a very difficult year in Brazil,' Arnaldo Luiz Corrêa, the director of São Paulo, Brazil-based Archer Consulting.

巴西商品风险管理机构Archer Consulting的圣保罗主管Arnaldo Luiz Correa说，他个人认为，巴西将迎来非常艰难的一年。

Additionally, a weaker appetite for raw materials from China, the world's biggest importer of Brazilian commodities from soybeans to iron ore, is expected to weigh on Brazil's trade balance.

另外，作为巴西的铁矿石和大豆等大宗商品的最大进口国，中国对原材料需求的走软预计将影响巴西的贸易平衡。

'The overarching concept here in EM is that policymakers are dealing with a lot of headwinds,' said Eurasia's Mr. Garman said. 'They're dealing with economies that are slowing down both for internal and external reasons.'

加曼说，目前新兴市场的情况是，决策者们正在应对诸多挑战；他们正在应对经济增长因内外原因放缓的问题。