投资者对黄金前景表示乐观

Gold has been lackluster this year, but some high-profile fans say the future is brightening.
今年以来黄金一直表现平平，不过一些高调的黄金追随者说，投资黄金的前景日渐光明。

After soaring to an all-time high last year, gold prices have dropped 13%. Gold has crept higher in 2012, though it has lagged behind stocks and some other commodities.
去年金价飙升至历史高位之后又回落了13%。2012年黄金价格有所升高，但涨幅仍然落后于股市和其他一些大宗商品。

But some investors, including Pacific Investment Management Co. and hedge-fund managers John Paulson and George Soros are doubling down on gold, while others are trumpeting bullish forecasts.
不过，包括太平洋投资管理公司(Pacific Investment Management Co.，简称Pimco)以及鲍尔森(John Paulson)、索罗斯(George Soros)等对冲基金经理在内的一些投资者正在加倍对黄金进行投资，同时另外一些人也不断发出对黄金的乐观预期。

They cite a continuing threat of financial turmoil in Europe, the prospect of additional U.S. monetary stimulus that could erode the value of the dollar and bolster gold, and the risk that long-dormant inflation could return.
这些人的理由包括：欧洲金融动荡的威胁仍在持续，美国额外的刺激性货币政策可能会使美元贬值并提振金价，以及长期潜伏的通胀重新抬头的风险。

Each scenario would benefit gold, which often acts as a haven from turmoil as well as keeping its value in times of inflation.
出现上述任何一种情形都会让黄金受益，黄金通常扮演着避险投资选择的角色，在通胀时也能保值。

As if on cue, gold jumped almost 1% on Wednesday in electronic trading after minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy-setting meeting indicated the central bankers were leaning toward a new round of quantitative easing. Many investors anticipate that could be announced as early as next month.
美联储最近一次政策会议的纪要显示，美联储官员倾向于推出新一轮量化宽松政策，在此之后，周三电子交易时段的黄金价格应声上涨了约1%。许多投资者预计，美联储最早在下个月就会宣布新一轮的量化宽松政策。

The world's biggest bond-fund manager, Pacific Investment Management, increased the gold holdings in its $21 billion CommodityRealReturn Strategy Fund to 11.5% of total assets recently, from 10.5% two months ago, according to Nicholas Johnson, the fund's co-manager. Pimco anticipates inflation will begin to rise in about a year and that gold will be a beneficiary.
全球最大的债券型基金公司Pimco旗下大宗商品实际回报策略基金(Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund)的联席基金经理约翰逊(Nicholas Johnson)说，他所管理的这只规模210亿美元的基金最近已将黄金资产占总资产的比例从两个月前的10.5%提高至11.5%。Pimco预计，通胀水平将会在大约一年以后开始抬头，届时黄金将因此受益。

'Broadly speaking, we prefer owning real assets as opposed to financial assets,' Mr. Johnson said. Mr. Johnson said his fund bought as gold dipped toward $1,500 a troy ounce.
约翰逊说，一般来说，与金融资产相比，我们更喜欢拥有实实在在的资产。约翰逊说，黄金下降至每金衡盎司1,500美元时，他的基金就出手买入了。

As of late Wednesday in New York, gold was at $1,653.10 a troy ounce in electronic trading. The precious metal settled at $1,637.40, down 0.15% for the day, but up 4.6% so far this year.
截至周三晚些时候，在纽约，电子交易时段的金价为每金衡盎司1,653.10美元，当日收盘价为1,637.40美元，当日下跌0.15%。不过年初迄今，金价已上涨了4.6%。

Gold's all-time high of $1,888.70─without adjusting for inflation─came in August last year, just weeks after Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating.
去年8月黄金价格创出1,888.70美元（未经通胀调整）的历史纪录，而此前几周，标准普尔(Standard & Poor)下调了对美国的信用评级。

That decline has caused pain for many gold bulls. But several have held on to their positions in anticipation that the metal will come roaring back.
金价下跌让大量看多黄金的投资者痛苦不堪。但是一些人坚持持有他们的头寸，他们预计金价将强势反弹。

'I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a new record this year,' said Eric Sprott, chief investment officer at Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management. The firm has various funds that offer exposure to gold, including its Offshore Fund Limited, which bets on shares of miners, among other things. Still, that exposure hasn't helped the fund, which is down 26% this year through July.
多伦多基金公司Sprott Asset Management的首席投资长斯普罗特(Eric Sprott)说，如果今年金价创下历史新高，我一点也不会感到意外。该公司有多种投资黄金领域的基金，其中包括Offshore Fund Limited。这只基金押注的对象之一是矿业公司的股票。尽管如此，在黄金上的投资并没有给这只基金带来提振，今年截至7月份该基金累计下跌了26%。

Prominent fund managers, including Messrs. Paulson and Soros, also have increased their gold holdings, according to regulatory filings. Mr. Paulson's firm, Paulson & Co., held 98 million shares of various gold-mining companies as of June 30, up 3.5% from the end of the first quarter, according to filings. The shares were worth $1.9 billion at June 30, according to filings.
据提交给监管机构的备案文件显示，包括鲍尔森和索罗斯在内的知名基金经理也已经增持了黄金。据监管备案文件显示，截至6月30日，鲍尔森麾下的Paulson & Co.持有各类金矿公司股票共9,800万股，较一季度末增加了3.5%。据备案文件显示，以6月30日的股价计算，这些股票总值为19亿美元。Paulson & Co. owned 21.8 million shares of SPDR Gold Shares, an exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, at June 30, an increase of 4.5 million shares from March 31, according to filings. The higher mining and ETF holdings reflect Mr. Paulson's bullish thesis on gold, one he has had since 2009, according to a person close to the fund.
据监管备案文件显示，截至6月30日，Paulson & Co.持有2,180万份黄金交易所买卖基金(ETF) SPDR Gold Shares，较3月31日增加了450万份。据一位了解该基金的人士说，增持矿业及黄金ETF反映出鲍尔森对黄金的看好。自2009年以来鲍尔森一直看好黄金。

Soros Fund Management LLC more than doubled its stake in SPDR Gold Shares over the same period, leaving it with shares worth $137.3 million as of June 30, according to a separate filing. The filings don't indicate how long the shares have been held or whether the stakes have changed since then. A spokesman declined to comment.
另外一份监管备案文件显示，同期Soros Fund Management LLC持有的SPDR Gold Shares份额增加了一倍以上；以6月30日的价格计算，该公司所持份额总值为1.373亿美元。文件中没有披露这些份额已经持有多久，也未透露此后持有量是否发生了变化。该公司发言人不予置评。

Some analysts aren't so optimistic. Credit Suisse recently sliced its 2012 outlook for gold by 5% to $1,680, because of weak demand for physical bullion in India and Southeast Asia. Demand from India and China has weakened in recent months, according to the World Gold Council, a gold-mining industry group. Morgan Stanley also cut its forecast recently.
一些分析人士则没有这么乐观。瑞信(Credit Suisse)最近将其对2012年黄金价格的预期下调了5%，至每金衡盎司1,680美元，原因是印度和东南亚对黄块的需求低迷。据黄金开采行业组织世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)的数据，近几个月，印度和中国的黄金需求减弱。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最近也下调了对黄金价格的预期。

Even some who expect prices to rise are moderating their outlooks. Julian Jessop, head of commodities research at Capital Economics, a London-based consulting firm, said he has 'scaled back my bullishness,' revising his estimate for gold's peak down from $2,500 to $2,000.
就连一些预计金价会上涨的人士也开始调低对黄金前景的预期。伦敦咨询公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)大宗商品研究负责人杰索普(Julian Jessop)说，自己的乐观预期已经有所收敛，他把自己对金价高点的预期从每金衡盎司2,500美元下调至2,000美元。

Still, he expects gold to hit that lower level by year-end, as the world confronts the possibility that one or more countries may leave Europe's common-currency system. 'When people really start to focus on the prospect of the euro zone breaking up, that's when gold will get a lift,' he said.
尽管如此，由于世界面临着一个或多个国家退出欧元区的可能，他仍预计金价将在年底前触及调低后的预期。他说，只有当人们真正开始重视欧元区解体的这一前景时，才是金价得到提振的时候。

Other analysts are sticking to their bullish price outlooks. In late March, as gold faltered, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reiterated a prior forecast that prices would hit $1,785 over three months. Gold missed that target, but the Wall Street bank hasn't changed the forecast.
其他分析人士则坚持看涨黄金。3月底，虽然金价摇摆不定，高盛(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)重申了此前的预测，即三个月内金价将触及每金衡盎司1,785美元。金价没有涨到高盛预测的水平，但这家华尔街投行并未改变自己的预测。

'Our view is that gold is still underpriced,' David Greely, chief commodities strategist for Goldman, said. 'We still expect gold prices to move
高盛首席大宗商品策略师格里利(David Greely)说，我们认为黄金价格仍然偏低，我们仍预计金价将走高。