中国官员对增长前景表示乐观

As finance officials from G20 countries began to descend on the city to discuss the state of the global economy — much of which is in thrall to the slowdown in growth in China — a senior central bank official yesterday sounded a note of reassurance. “For the foreseeable future our demand will remain fairly strong,” said Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China. “We will continue to increase imports of crude oil by maybe 7 or 10 per cent a year and for other commodities we will have very strong demand.”

在20国集团(G20)的财政官员陆续抵达上海讨论全球经济状况之际（目前全球经济有很大一部分受制于中国增长放缓），中国央行一位高官昨日发表安抚人心的言论。“在可预见的未来，中国的需求仍会维持保持较为强劲的状态，”中国人民银行(PBoC)副行长易纲表示。“中国将继续增加原油进口，例如以7%-10%的年均增速。中国对其他大宗商品的需求也会维持强劲。”

But stock markets were painting a different picture. The Shanghai Composite ended 6.41 per cent lower at 2,741.2 while the tech-focused Shenzhen Composite dropped 7.34 per cent to 1,738.67.

但是，股市描绘了一幅不同的画面。上证综指(Shanghai Composite)收跌6.41%，至2741.2点，而科技股集中的深证综指(Shenzhen Composite)收跌7.34%，至1738.67点。

Both are down more than 20 per cent this year, dented by fears of slowing economic expansion and rising debt levels in a country that has been the engine of global growth for much of the past decade. Consequent currency weakness and capital flight have fed back and compounded these fears.

沪深股指今年以来双双下跌逾20%，拖累股市的主要因素是，投资者担心在过去10年大部分时间里构成全球增长引擎的中国经济扩张放缓，负债上升。随之而来的人民币弱势和资本外流形成反馈，加剧了前述担忧。

Seeking to allay these concerns, China’s central bank said that the renminbi would remain “relatively stable” though there would be more volatility in the exchange rate against the dollar.

为消除这些担忧，中国央行表示，人民币汇率将保持“相对稳定”，尽管兑美元汇率会有更多波动。

“Fluctuation with the US dollar will be a little bit more than before whereas renminbi [value] relative to a basket of currencies will be relatively stable,” Mr Yi said.

易纲表示，人民币兑美元汇率的波动会比之前多一点，而人民币的币值对一篮子货币会相对稳定。

The PBoC has been criticised in recent months for failing to communicate its policy intentions clearly after a “one-off” devaluation of the renminbi in August and later saying that the market should assess the currency’s stability against a basket of 13 currencies rather than the dollar alone.

中国央行在最近几个月受到批评，称其未能清楚传达自己的政策意图。去年8月，中国央行让人民币“一次性”贬值，随后表示市场应当参照一篮子13种货币（而不仅仅是美元）来评估人民币的稳定性。

“We are not pegging to a basket strictly,” added Mr Yi, who is a leading candidate to succeed Zhou Xiaochuan as head of the PBoC.

“我们不会严格对于篮子货币挂钩，”易纲补充道。他是接替周小川出任中国央行行长的领先候选人。

“We can still determine interest rates. We take the basket as a reference but not exactly [a] peg . . . to maintain relative stability of the renminbi.”

他表示，中国仍“有能力决定国内自身的利率水平”，并将一篮子货币作为一个参照而不是盯住，借此保持人民币汇率的相对稳定。

With the exception of Mr Zhou’s appearance at a G20 meeting in Ankara in September, senior PBoC officials have been largely invisible on the international stage. When they have spoken, it has been almost exclusively through state-controlled media outlets such asCaixin, a leading Chinese financial magazine with which Mr Zhou had a recent interview.

除了去年9月周小川在安卡拉G20会议上露面外，中国央行高层近几个月在国际舞台上基本不见踪影。当他们表态时，他们几乎完全通过国家控制的媒体机构，如最近采访周小川的中国领先财经杂志《财新周刊》。

Weeks after renewed turmoil on China’s equity and currency markets shocked global investors in early January, Beijing sent an influential policy adviser to the World Economic Forum in Davos to argue that reforms to rebalance the country’s traditionally investment-led economy remained on track.

在1月初中国股市和汇市再起风波、震惊全球投资者的几周后，北京方面派出一个有影响力的政策顾问出席达沃斯世界经济论坛(WEF)，他提出，为了转型中国的传统投资拉动型经济而推行的改革仍然走在正轨上。

Mr Zhou is scheduled to speak in Shanghai this morning, where he will be questioned on how the Chinese government can keep the renminbi relatively stable without heavily depleting its foreign exchange reserves. China’s forex stockpile fell by more than an aggregate $200bn in December and January as the PBoC sought to cushion the renminbi’s fall against the dollar. However, at $3.3tn it remains far higher than those of international peers.

周小川定于今日上午在上海发言，他将面对这样一个问题：中国政府如何能够在不大量消耗外汇储备的情况下保持人民币相对稳定？随着中国央行试图遏制人民币相对于美元过度下跌，中国外汇储备在12月和1月共计减少逾2000亿美元。然而，目前为3.3万亿美元的外汇储备仍远高于其它国家。

“Capital outflows are increasing but it is not all due to bad reasons,” said Qu Hongbin, China chief economist at HSBC. “By our estimates 60 per cent of outflows over the past 18 months came from Chinese corporates paying down their dollar debt at a time when Chinese borrowing costs are lower and the US is hiking rates.”

“资本外流正在增加，但并非全都是由于不好的原因，”汇丰(HSBC)中国首席经济学家屈宏斌表示。“据我们估计，过去18个月流出的资金中，有60%源自中国企业偿还美元债务，目前美国在加息，中国的借款成本较低。”

Zhu Guangyao, vice-finance minister, yesterday acknowledged market concerns about policy transparency in China. “Transparency is important for people to understand what we are doing,” he said. “We understand that as [the world’s] second-largest economy our policies spill over to others.”

中国副财长朱光耀昨日承认市场对中国的政策透明度存在担忧。“透明度对于人们了解我们在做什么很重要，”他说。“我们明白，作为全球第二大经济体，我们的政策会有溢出效应。”

However, Beijing officials also made clear that culpability lay elsewhere too, citing concerns from higher interest rates in the US to negative ones in Japan.

然而，中国官员们也明确表示，其它国家也有过错，他们提到了种种关切，从美国加息到日本实行负利率。

“We also understand that US policy spills over to China [and] we want to strengthen policy co-ordination,” Mr Zhu said. “That is why the G20 this time is more important.”

“我们也明白，美国的政策对中国具有溢出效应，我们希望加强政策协调，”朱光耀表示。“这就是为什么此次G20会议格外重要。”