德国强劲增长带来欧元区乐观情绪

Optimism that Europe’s economy might finally be turning a corner was fuelled on Friday by stronger-than-expected growth data from Germany and encouraging signals from the wider eurozone.

周五，德国强于预期的增长数据和整个欧元区释放出的令人鼓舞的信号，增强了欧洲经济可能终于转危为安的乐观情绪。

The figures, for economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year, sent stock markets higher, despite lingering concerns about the potential impact of a showdown between Greece and its creditors over the country’s international bailout.

尽管外界依然担心希腊及其债权人在国际纾困计划上摊牌可能造成的影响，但去年第4季度的经济增长数据推动了股市上扬。

Cheaper oil, a weaker euro and a landmark sovereign bond-buying programme by the European Central Bank have stoked expectations that the eurozone will this year record its strongest annual growth since 2010.

油价下跌、欧元走弱，以及欧洲央行(ECB)提出的具有里程碑意义的国债购买计划，都激起了今年欧元区将经历自2010年以来最强劲的年度增长的期望。

The figures released on Friday confirmed Germany’s role as Europe’s powerhouse. Its economy expanded 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter — well ahead of analysts’ expectations of 0.3 per cent growth.

周五的数据确认了德国作为欧洲经济引擎的地位，去年第4季度增长了0.7%，远超分析师们预计的0.3%。

Data from Eurostat, the European Commissions’ statistics bureau, showed that the broader eurozone saw growth of 0.3 per cent — higher than the 0.2 per cent recorded in the previous three months and also ahead of forecasts.

欧盟委员会(European Commission)的统计机构——欧盟统计局(Eurostat)的数据表明，去年第4季度，整个欧元区的经济增长率为0.3%，超过第3季度的0.2%，而且也好于预期。

This boosted hopes that the region’s recovery might be gathering pace. It has suffered years of near-stagnation and remains smaller than before the global financial crisis, growing by only 0.9 per cent in 2014. But last month, the commission upgraded its forecast for eurozone growth for this year to 1.3 per cent, suggesting the outlook was finally improving.

这增强了人们对于欧元区正在加速复苏的期待。欧元区多年深陷经济近乎停滞的境地，经济规模仍小于全球金融危机爆发之前，2014年仅增长0.9%。但上月，欧盟委员会将欧元区2015年增长预测上调至1.3%，似乎表明欧元区的前景终于开始好转。

“The euro area recovery appears in better shape than expected,” said Thomas Harjes, an economist at Barclays.

“欧元区的复苏情况似乎比预期更好，”巴克莱(Barclays)的经济学家托马斯•哈吉斯(Thomas Harjes)表示。

However, the picture is not consistently positive. France eked out quarterly growth of just 0.1 per cent, while Italy stagnated and Greece’s economy contracted 0.2 per cent, after three successive quarters of expansion.

然而，欧元区内部的情况并非都是积极的。去年第4季度，法国经济增长率仅为0.1%，意大利经济陷于停滞，希腊经济继连续三个季度增长后，第4季度收缩了0.2%

The Xetra Dax, Frankfurt’s main equities index, broke through 11,000 for the first time in response to the gross domestic product numbers, before closing at a record high of 10,970.3 — up 0.5 per cent on the day.

国内生产总值(GDP)数据发布后，德国主要股指Xetra Dax首次突破11000点，最终收于创纪录的10970.3点，当日上涨0.5%。

Meanwhile, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 0.7 per cent to 1,503, its highest level since early 2008.

同时，富时Eurofirst 300指数(FTSE Eurofirst 300)上涨0.7%，至1503点，达到自2008年初以来的最高水平。

US stocks were also on track to reach record highs, with the S&P up 0.26 per cent at 2093.96 in mid-session. Investors were cheered by a generally positive earnings season, as well as easing geopolitical concerns over Ukraine following the signing of a ceasefire in Minsk this week.

美股也有望创历史新高，午盘时分，标普(S&P)上涨0.26%，至2093.96点。总体积极的财报季，以及本周签署明斯克停火协议所带来的地缘政治忧虑的缓和，都让投资者感到振奋。

In Germany, unemployment — at post-reunification lows of 6.5 per cent — has helped lift domestic demand, with households increasing their spending “markedly” in the fourth quarter, the country’s Federal Statistics Office said on Friday.

德国的失业率降至6.5%，达到自两德统一以来的低点，这帮助提升了国内需求，德国联邦统计局(Federal Statistics Office)表示，第4季度德国家庭的支出“显著”上升。

German companies were beginning to make substantial investments again, with spending on machinery and equipment rising, notably in the construction sector.

德国企业又开始进行大笔投资，对机器和设备和支出上升，尤其是在建筑业。

The eurozone’s largest economy has grown by an impressive 1.6 per cent over the past year, compared with 0.4 per cent for France.

作为欧元区最大经济体，去年德国经济增长率达到了可观的1.6%，而法国仅为0.4%。

“It appears [German] consumers are fully spending the windfall gains from lower oil prices, and better investment activity underlines that firms are growing more confident that better domestic and global demand conditions are going to be sustained,” said Mr Harjes.

巴克莱的哈吉斯表示：“（德国）消费者似乎充分使用了油价下跌带来的意外收益，投资活动的好转突显出企业信心正在增强，相信更好的国内和国际需求环境将持续下去。”

Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank, said: “The usual suspect [for the strong figure] is the unusually mild winter weather in December, especially as the statisticians hinted to a strong increase in construction spending. But even if the number was slightly lower, fourth-quarter growth would still look quite strong.”

德国商业银行(Commerzbank)首席经济学家约尔格•克拉默(Jörg Krämer)表示：“（强劲的经济数据）的明显原因之一是12月不寻常的暖冬天气，尤其是统计学家暗示建筑支出强劲增长。但就算数据略低，第4季度的增长也会看上去相当强劲。”

The German economy had started off last year strongly, before growth petered out over the second and third quarters. Exports and confidence were hampered by the crisis in Ukraine as western governments slapped sanctions on Russian companies and individuals.

去年初，德国经济增长强劲，而在第2和第3季度，增长势头逐渐减弱。乌克兰危机导致西方政府向俄罗斯企业和个人实施制裁，进而影响了出口和市场信心。

Friday’s data come as President François Hollande’s Socialist government in France is attempting to pass a number of business-friendly reforms to return the eurozone’s second-largest economy to higher growth.

周五数据发布之际，法国总统弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(François Hollande)领导的社会党政府正试图推动通过多项利于商业发展的改革，使欧元区第二大经济体恢复更高增长。

The reforms, contained in a package before parliament, include measures to relax Sunday shop opening hours, open up regulated professions, and allow competition for long¬-distance bus routes.

改革计划包含在提交议会讨论的一揽子计划中，其中包括放宽商店周日营业时间、放开受监管的职业，以及放开长途巴士市场、引入竞争等措施。

Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Natixis Asset Management in Paris, said that while internal demand contributed to growth, investment by households and companies fell.

巴黎Natixis资产管理公司(Natixis Asset Management)首席经济学家菲利普•韦希特尔(Philippe Waechter)称，尽管内需推动了增长，但家庭和企业投资均出现下滑。

“We are not confident about investment — this is the main weakness,” he said.

“我们对投资没有信心——这是主要的疲软点，”他称。

toItaly’s economy contracted 0.4 per cent for the whole of 2014, but the Bank of Italy is forecasting GDP growth of at least 0.5 per cent for this year and at least 1.5 per cent in 2016, on the back of a weaker euro, which it expects to boost exports. It also expects the ECB’s bond-buying programme, combined with lower oil prices, to help consumption.

2014年全年意大利经济萎缩了0.4%，但是意大利央行(Bank of Italy)预计，在欧元贬值的推动下，出口预计将受到提振，今年GDP增长至少0.5%，2016年至少增长1.5%。该央行还预计，欧洲央行的债券购买计划，加上油价下滑的影响，将有助于消费。

But hopes of a recovery in the Italian economy have been dashed on several occasions in recent years, so many economists are waiting for stronger evidence to declare a shift in the cycle.

但是，最近几年意大利经济复苏的希望已经破灭过多次，很多经济学家都在等待更有力的证据来宣告周期转折。

With additional reporting by Adam Thomson in Paris, James Politi in Rome and Duncan Robinson

亚当•汤姆森(Adam Thomson)巴黎、詹姆斯•波利提(James Politi)罗马和邓肯•罗宾逊(Duncan Robinson)补充报道