欧盟委员会调低欧元区增长预测

The European Commission slashed its economic outlook for the eurozone yesterday, putting even More pressure on the European Central Bank to expand its arsenal of extraordinary measures aimed at arresting slowing growth and fending off deflation.

欧盟委员会(European Commission)昨日大幅下调了欧元区经济增长预测，使得欧洲央行(ECB)面临更大压力，要求其扩大实施非常规举措，力求遏制增长放缓，化解通缩威胁。

The Brussels forecast, which predicts the currency bloc growing only 1.1 per cent next year, down from a forecast of 1.7 per cent just six months ago, is one of the most serious indicators yet that the long hoped-for recovery from the continent’s debt crisis may be stalling.

布鲁塞尔方面预测，欧元区明年增长率将仅为1.1%，显著低于仅6个月前预测的1.7%，这是迄今最严重的信号之一，说明欧洲大陆在遭受债务危机之后期盼已久的复苏或许正陷入停滞。

The commission acknowledged the EU economy was not only “particularly weak” as compared to other developed countries, but was also underperforming historic examples of post-crisis recoveries, and the slowdown risked feeding on itself. “The legacy of the crisis is affecting member states to different degrees but spillovers through trade and confidence are large,” it found.

欧盟委员会承认，欧盟经济不仅相对于其他发达国家“特别疲弱”，相对于以往危机后的复苏也差强人意，同时增长放缓有自我强化的风险。欧盟委员会认为：“危机的后遗症对不同成员国的影响程度不同，但通过贸易和市场信心的传导，这种影响的外溢效果明显。”

The forecasts for Germany and France, the two largest eurozone economies, were among the most dramatic revisions. The 2015 gross domestic product forecast for Germany, the bloc’s economic engine, was cut from 2 per cent in May to 1.1 per cent. France went from 1.5 per cent to 0.7 per cent.

欧元区最大的两个经济体德国和法国的预计增长率下调幅度最大。欧盟委员会将2015年德国国内生产总值(GDP)增长预测从5月的2%调低至1.1%，将法国增长预测从1.5%调低至0.7%。

Commission officials insisted the troubling growth rates were not the fault of the EU’s austerity-led economic policies, noting that some of the countries that went through the toughest reform programmes were growing strongly, albeit from low bases.

欧盟委员会官员坚称，增长率不如人意，原因不在于欧盟实施了以紧缩为主的经济政策。委员会称，一些实施了最严厉改革计划的国家增长强劲，尽管基数较低。

Ireland, which emerged from its bailout last year, is expected to grow 3.6 per cent in 2015, the fastest in the EU. Similarly Greece, a perpetual eurozone laggard, is also forecast to expand by 2.9 per cent.

去年刚退出纾困计划的爱尔兰2015年增长预测达到3.6%，是欧盟国家中最快的。与此类似，欧元区的老牌“差生”希腊预计也将增长2.9%。

“Fiscal consolidation is a necessity,” said Pierre Moscovici, the commission’s new economic chief. “But the question which is in front of us is how to recreate hope in the European project.”

欧盟委员会新任经济和金融事务专员皮埃尔•莫斯科维奇(Pierre Moscovici)表示：“财政整顿十分必要。不过，我们面临的问题是如何重建对欧洲项目的信心。”