中国政府债券市场投资前景光明

The volatility has been dizzying in recent weeks in markets on both sides of the Pacific.

最近几周，太平洋两岸的市场动荡令人头晕目眩。

In the wake of the totally predictable decision from the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates, hedge funds with consensus trades involving bullish US dollar bets and bearish positions in virtually everything else, including energy, basic materials and emerging market currencies, had their worst week in a while. For example, the Indonesian rupiah, shorthand for every disappointing commodity-based emerging market economy, shot up 9 per cent before the cynicism about the prospects of emerging markets returned in the middle of last week.

在完全在意料当中的美联储(Fed)暂不加息决定出炉后，那些一致押注美元走强、做空几乎其他所有资产——包括能源、基础原料和新兴市场货币——的对冲基金经历了一段时间来最难熬的一周。例如，印尼盾汇率（可代表所有表现不佳的以大宗商品为基础的新兴市场经济体）一度飙升9%，直到上周周中，人们才再度不看好新兴市场的前景。

Meanwhile, the renminbi remained stable. To some this was a sign that the People’s Bank of China was spending dwindling reserves on supporting the currency after changing the way the exchange rate is set back in August. That change, which was a move toward a more market oriented way of setting the rate, indirectly led to a 2 per cent drop in the value of the renminbi against the dollar.

同时，人民币仍保持稳定。在一些人看来，这表明在8月份的汇率设定机制改革之后，中国央行正在动用不断减少的外汇储备支撑人民币汇率。那次改革是向更加市场化的汇率设定机制迈出的一步，它间接地导致人民币兑美元汇率下跌了2%。

In addition, recent data from China hardly support the dire case for the mainland. The September trade surplus jumped to more than $60bn, near its highest level ever, according to JPMorgan, and third-quarter GDP growth beat expectations at 6.9 per cent. Capital outflows at $43bn were far less than pessimists anticipated. The fear that companies selling renminbi to repay dollar debt before the cost rose would trigger a vicious cycle for the currency receded. Meanwhile, although China’s equity market is not ready for prime time, by happy contrast, the Chinese government bond market is growing up. The debt market can only benefit from Beijing’s desire for the renminbi to join the select group of countries whose currencies are part of the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights. Making its bond market more liquid, transparent and attractive necessarily follows on from that desire.

此外，中国近期发布的数据基本上不支持看跌人民币。摩根大通(JPMorgan)数据显示，9月份中国贸易顺差猛增至逾600亿美元，接近最高纪录。第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长率达到6.9%，强于预期。资本外流为430亿美元，规模比悲观者预期的小得多。人们曾担心，中国企业赶在偿债成本升高前卖出人民币偿还美元债务的行为，会将人民币推入恶性循环。这种担忧已经减弱了。另一方面，尽管中国股市还未做好迎来“黄金时段”的准备，但幸运的是，中国政府债券市场正在发展壮大。中国政府渴望人民币被纳入国际货币基金组织(IMF)特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子，这种渴望只会给债券市场带来好处。出于这种渴望，中国接下来必然会提高其债券市场的流动性、透明度和吸引力。

China continues to look far better, in fact, than most of its indebted neighbours. “China’s overall external indebtedness is limited and the debt servicing capacity of the country as a whole remains intact,” noted China International Capital Corporation in a report. “China’s foreign exchange res-erves are still more than twice the size needed to cover all its external debt and four times its foreign currency debt.”

事实上，中国的形势看起来仍比多数债台高筑的邻国好得多。“中国外债总体水平仍然不高，中国作为整体的偿债能力也未受到明显影响，”中金公司(CICC)在一份报告中指出，“中国外汇储备仍可覆盖全部外债余额的两倍以上、所有外币外债的四倍以上。”

Moreover, as the renminbi internationalises, other central banks will need to acquire renminbi assets, providing a bid both for the currency and for its debt. China’s government debt market is already by far the largest bond market in the emerging world. Moreover, while the stock market continues to gyrate, the bond market has been less volatile and actually offers positive returns. That is significant in a world where positive returns on government bonds can no longer be taken for granted, thanks to quantitative easing programmes in the developed world.

此外，随着人民币国际化进程的推进，其他央行将需要购买人民币资产，这对人民币和人民币债券都形成了需求。在新兴世界，中国政府债券市场已然是规模遥遥领先的最大债券市场。而且，在股市继续震荡之际，债市的波动却没那么大，实际上提供了正回报。这一点很重要。由于发达国家实施了量化宽松计划，在当今世界上，政府债券回报为正已不再是理所当然之事。

“The China government bond index has been steadily climbing higher over the last three quarters,” note analysts at Citigroup. “After nine months, the benchmark has generated a total return of 5.16 per cent in local currency terms and even remains in the black in US dollar currency terms.” That record compares favourably with US credit indices or the Citi World Government Bond index, the report adds. China’s capital controls mean access to the market is limited, especially for foreign investors, and the market is not yet included in global benchmark indices. The dominant players tend to be buy-and-hold investors, particularly domestic banks. Still, though, that just “means the technicals are mind-boggling”, according to Jan Dehn, London-based head of research for Ashmore Investment Management, who labels the market the best in the world. “Hardly anyone has exposure.”

“过去三个季度，中国政府债券指数一直在稳步攀升，”花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师指出，“9个月后，这一基准指数以人民币计已产生了5.16%的总回报，即使以美元计，回报也是正的。”花旗的报告补充称，这一成绩优于美国信用指数或花旗全球政府债券指数(Citi World Government Bond index)。由于中国存在资本管制，该市场的准入受到限制，尤其是对外国投资者而言，而且该市场尚未被纳入全球基准债券指数。中国政府债券市场的主要参与者是“买入并持有”型投资者，尤其是中国国内的银行。不过，在安石投资管理公司(Ashmore Investment Management)驻伦敦的研究主管简德恩(Jan Dehn)看来，这只是“意味着在技术层面上令人头疼”。德恩认为，中国政府债券市场是世界上最棒的市场。“几乎没有谁建立了敞口。”

Moreover, China is one of the few places in the world where there is the possibility of capital gains on bond investments since interest rates are not at zero and still have further to fall, given the continuing deflation risks the country faces. At some point, perhaps the Chinese central bank will show as little regard for savers as the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and other monetary authorities that are believers in artificially lowering the price of government debt. But not yet.

此外，中国是世界上少有的几个债券投资可能实现资本收益的国家之一，原因是该国的利率并非为零，而且考虑到该国面临持续的通缩风险，该国的利率仍有可能下调。有朝一日，中国央行或许会像美联储、欧洲央行(ECB)、瑞士央行(SNB)等相信应当人为压低政府债券价格的货币当局一样，不把储户的利益放在心上。但那一日还未到来。