花旗银行将把中国政府债券纳入多个指数

Citigroup is playing a smart game with China’s government bond market.

花旗集团正在和中国政府债券市场玩一个聪明的游戏。

The American bank on Tuesday said that it would include sovereign debt issued by China in three existing fixed-income indexes — becoming the first major International benchmark provider to do so. That is a propaganda victory for Beijing, which has struggled to entice foreign investors. For Citigroup, it is a relatively low-risk diplomatic win.

这家美国银行周二表示，将把中国发行的主权债务纳入其三个现有的固定收益指数中——该银行也成为了第一个这么做的主要国际基准提供者。这是北京宣传工作的胜利，一直以来，北京努力吸引外国投资者。对于花旗集团来说，这则是一个风险相对较低的外交胜利。

China has been trying to attract more foreign bond buyers since the International Monetary Fund designated the renminbi as an official reserve currency last year. It has been a tough sell. The country’s capital account is not fully open, and regulation of financial markets remains ham-fisted. The renminbi has also been sliding against the dollar, while rising long-term United States interest rates make Chinese yields less attractive.

自从国际货币基金组织(IMF)去年指定人民币作为正式储备货币以来，中国一直试图吸引更多的外国债券买家。这并不容易。该国的资本账户尚未完全开放，对金融市场的监管仍然不得法。人民币对美元汇率下滑，而美国长期利率的上升导致中国债券的吸引力下降。

Regulators’ efforts to squash capital outflows while encouraging inflows have made fund managers worry that recent reforms are a honey trap. Foreign investors owned Chinese bonds worth just $126 billion at the end of 2016, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange — equivalent to less than 2 percent of the onshore bond market.

中国监管机构努力压缩资本流出，同时鼓励资本流入，基金经理难免担心近期的改革是“美人计”。中国外汇管理局的统计显示，截至2016年底，外国投资者持有的中国债券价值仅为1260亿美元，不到境内债券市场的2%。

Adding China’s $1.1 trillion of government bonds to international benchmarks is therefore potentially a big deal. Funds that measure their performance against that index will have to increase their allocation to Chinese bonds. For example, China will account for almost 53 percent of the Citigroup index that tracks emerging-market sovereign debt.

因此，将中国1.1万亿美元的政府债券纳入国际基准恐怕是一件大事。对照该指数衡量表现的基金必然会增加中国债券的配比。例如，中国将占据花旗银行跟踪新兴市场主权债务指数的近53%。

The prospect of mechanically moving large amounts of cash into China is likely to unnerve fund managers. That is the main reason MSCI has so far declined to include Chinese equities in its popular emerging-market indexes, despite the risk of upsetting Beijing.

将大量现金不加思考地转移到中国，这种前景可能使一些基金经理感到不安。这也是摩根士丹利迄今拒绝将中国股票纳入其人气很高的新兴市场指数的主要原因，尽管这么做可能会令北京不快。

Citigroup has skirted this conundrum by choosing indexes that are not major benchmarks. Though the bank has not said how much money tracks its indexes, the financial consequences are likely to be small.

花旗集团选择的指数并非主要基准，因而绕过了这个难题。虽然该银行没有说用多少钱来跟踪指数，但财务影响可能很小。

There may be a tacit quid pro quo at work. A month ago, Chinese authorities granted Citigroup a bond settlement license. JPMorgan Chase, which operates the leading emerging-market bond index and is also contemplating including Chinese sovereign bonds, received a bond underwriting license around the same time. Watch this space.

这里面可能存在着一个心照不宣的交换条件。一个月前，中国给予花旗集团银行间债券市场结算代理人资格。管理着领先的新兴市场债券指数、同样也在考虑纳入中国主权债券的摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)，也几乎在同一时间获得中国银行间债券市场企业债券承销资格。这个领域值得注意。