MSCI明晟连续第三年拒绝将中国纳入其新兴市场指数

Days before the world’s largest index provider, MSCI, blocked China from joining its emerging market index for the third year in a row, a senior official at the country’s regulatory commission asserted that inclusion in the important benchmark was a historical certainty.

在世界最大指数提供商MSCI明晟连续第三年拒绝将中国纳入其新兴市场指数之前数天，中国证监会的一名高级官员断言，中国股市被纳入这个重要的基准指数是一个历史必然。

It will happen eventually, Qi Bin told a conference in Shanghai’s financial district.

早晚会发生，祁斌在上海陆家嘴金融区举行的一个论坛上说：

You don’t want to wait too long.

（当你参与一个市场时）最好不要等太久。

The rejection by MSCI a few days later was an embarrassing blow to Beijing, which has attempted to win a place on the index by reforming its capital markets.

数天后，MSCI的拒绝给了北京一次尴尬的打击，北京一直试图通过改革资本市场在MSCI的指数中赢得一席之地。

Much is at stake: inclusion would boost China’s ability to attract foreign investment as it struggles with slowing growth.

是否被纳入事关重大：在中国努力应对增长放缓之际，被纳入MSCI指数将提升中国吸引外国投资的能力。

$1.5tn of assets track MSCI’s emerging markets index and membership of it boosts a country’s legitimacy to investors around the world.

全球有1.5万亿美元的资产追踪MSCI明晟新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets index)，被纳入该指数将使一个国家在全球投资者眼中地位上升。

Repeated denial by some of the largest index providers — China has also been locked out of the main emerging markets indices by S&P and FTSE Russell — has restricted the amount of foreign investment flowing into the country of 1.4bn people.

中国一再被一些最大的指数提供商拒之门外——中国也未能被纳入标准普尔(S&P)和富时罗素(FTSE Russell)的主要新兴市场指数——限制了流入这个拥有14亿人口的国家的境外投资。

The question now for Mr Qi and reformers in Beijing is when — if ever — will the world’s second-largest economy win a place on such benchmarks, helping propel it to its next stage of liberalisation.

对祁斌和北京方面的其他改革者而言，现在的问题是世界第二大经济体何时（如果最终被纳入的话）能够在这类基准指数中赢得一席之地，助推其进入开放的下一个阶段。

It is a certainty that China will be added, says Danny Dolan, managing director at China Post Global, the international asset management arm of the domestic investment house China Post Fund.

中国被纳入是必然的，中国投资机构中邮基金(China Post Fund)旗下的国际资产管理部门中邮国际(China Post Global)的董事总经理丹尼.多兰(Danny Dolan)说。

The group is betting that international investment into China will rise after inclusion.

该集团正在押注，在被纳入基准指数之后，流入中国的国际投资将会增加。

It is planning to launch two smart beta exchange traded funds early next year.

该集团计划在明年初推出两个采用Smart Beta策略的交易所交易基金(ETF)。

[Inclusion] is likely to happen in 2017, says Mr Dolan.

（纳入）很可能会在2017年发生，多兰说：

There is a huge incentive for MSCI to add China to their indices.

MSCI有巨大的动机将中国纳入其指数。

From a performance point of view these indices are suffering due to the exclusion of China.

从表现视角看，这些指数正因为把中国挡在门外而吃亏。

It’s a huge growth engine.

中国是一个巨大的增长引擎。

China accounts for 13 per cent of the world’s GDP and its local A-shares equity market represents a tenth of global market capitalisation, according to Credit Suisse.

根据瑞信(Credit Suisse)的数据，中国占世界国内生产总值(GDP)的13%，其A股市场占全球总市值的十分之一。

The Swiss financial services company has launched an onshore brokerage business in China in anticipation of the new capital flows.

因为预测中国将迎来新的资本流动，这家瑞士金融服务公司已经在中国推出国内证券经纪业务。

However, three features of the Chinese market worry index providers: restrictions on the amount of capital that foreign investors can take out of the country; requirements that any new products linked to A-shares are approved by Beijing; and the potential for share suspensions similar to those that roiled the country’s stock market last summer.

然而，中国市场的三个特点让指数提供商感到忧虑：对外国投资者汇出资金的限制；任何与A股挂钩的新金融产品都需要得到中国批准这个要求；以及类似去年夏天搅乱中国股市的股票停牌再度发生的可能。

Restrictions on outflows are the most problematic of the three, according to index providers.

据指数提供商表示，对汇出资金的限制是最大的问题。

If a fund manager has to meet redemptions and there’s hard limits on the amount of currency that can be repatriated then that poses a problem, says Michael Orzano, director of global equity indices at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

如果一家基金管理公司不得不应对赎回请求，而能够汇回本国的资金额度又有硬性限制的话，这就会造成问题，标普道琼斯指数公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)的全球股指总监迈克尔.奥尔扎诺(Michael Orzano)说。

Mark Makepeace, chief executive of the FTSE Russell, adds that quotas for inflows awarded under programmes that open Chinese markets up to foreign investors favour larger asset managers.

富时罗素首席执行官麦思平(Mark Makepeace)补充道，向外国投资者开放中国市场的合格境外机构投资者(QFII)制度，在授予投资额度方面青睐较大的资产管理公司。

Only if you’re a big fund can you get a quota and then you can buy quite easily but you still can’t sell as easily, he says.

只有在你是一家大型基金的情况下，你才能获得额度，而且，你可以相当容易地买入，但你不能同样容易地卖出，他说。

We’re looking for those restrictions to be removed.

我们期盼这些限制会被解除。

We can estimate [when that will happen] but we don’t know until those restrictions are removed.

我们可以估计（解除限制的时间），但在限制解除之前，我们无从得知。

That’s the major hurdle.

这就是主要的障碍。

Active investors are more optimistic.

活跃型投资者更加乐观。

They argue that Shenzhen Connect, a programme launched this month to link the country’s large technology-focused Shenzhen Stock Exchange with Hong Kong,

他们主张，本月启动的深港通(Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect)将鼓励更多境外投资，增强中国股市被纳入基准指数的理由。

will drive the case for inclusion by encouraging more foreign investment.

深港通项目将中国规模庞大、以科技股为主的深交所(Shenzhen Stock Exchange)与香港对接。

MSCI is sending mixed signals [by not including China in its index], however it is worth noting the improvements made since [MSCI’s] last review, says Karine Hirn, partner at East Capital, an emerging market-focused asset manager.

（拒绝把中国纳入其指数）意味着MSCI正在发出矛盾的信号，然而值得指出的是，在（MSCI的）上一次审核后，有关方面做出了一些改善，专注于新兴市场的资产管理公司East Capital的合伙人习卡琳(Karine Hirn)说。

Ms Hirn believes that Shenzhen Connect will build on other reforms, including an increase in overall foreign investment quotas, the relaxing of quota rules for both Shenzhen Connect and Shanghai Connect — which also links with Hong Kong — and greater restrictions on share suspensions.

习卡琳相信，深港通将深化其他改革，包括提高境外总投资额度，对深港通和沪港通放松额度规则，对停牌采取更严的限制。

This will make the situation in China more favourable, she argues.

她主张，这将改善中国的投资环境。

This is going in the right direction, the question is not whether it will be included, it is only when it will be included.

事情正朝着正确的方向发展，问题不是中国是否会被纳入，而是何时会被纳入。

Josh Crabb, head of Asian equities at Old Mutual Global Investors, says that the Shenzhen stock market tie-up will introduce foreign investors to the high returns available in China’s market.

Old Mutual Global Investors的亚洲股票业务主管乔希.克拉布(Josh Crabb)表示，深港通将让外国投资者了解中国市场提供的高回报。

The Connect means that people can buy and sell more easily and as they slowly open up they’ll see relative performance [improve], he says.

这一连通机制意味着人们能够更容易地买入和卖出，随着它们慢慢开放，它们会看到相对业绩（改善），他说。

Mr Crabb points to the gradual inclusion of South Korea and Taiwan in global equity benchmarks as an example of how initial inflows generate investor confidence.

克拉布举出韩国和台湾逐渐被纳入全球股票基准的例子，来说明最初的资本流入如何让投资者萌生信心。

Index providers, however, point out that Shenzhen Connect still does not cover the entire A-shares market.

然而，指数提供商指出，深港通依然没有覆盖全部A股市场。

The Shenzhen-Hong Kong link will improve things but there is a limited amount of stocks that it includes, Mr Makepeace says.

深港通改善了局面，但其包含的股票数量依然有限，富时罗素的麦思平说。

MSCI declined to comment.

MSCI拒绝置评。