MSCI指数再次拒绝A股 担忧中国政府干预

SHANGHAI — Chinese stocks had seemed poised to join an important global benchmark, paving the way for overseas money to pour into the country’s markets.

上海——中国股市看上去已经准备好加入一个重要的全球指数，以便为海外资金涌入国内市场铺平道路。

But the provider of the index, MSCI, decided that China was not yet ready, again holding off on adding mainland stocks to its influential emerging-markets benchmark.

然而，指数供应商MSCI明晟再次决定延迟将中国A股纳入这个重要的新兴市场指数，表示中国还没有做好准备。

The decision, announced on Tuesday, was a blow not only to despondent local investors but for the Chinese government more broadly. For several years, China had been pushing hard to increase its sway in global financial markets, an effort that recently resulted in having its currency, the renminbi, included in the exclusive club of currencies at the International Monetary Fund.

本周二宣布的这个决定不仅让本地投资者失望，也在更宏观的层面上令中国政府遭受了打击。几年来，中国一直在大力提升本国在全球金融市场的影响力，人民币最近就加入了国际货币基金组织(IMF)的一个高级俱乐部。

A year ago, China seemed close to having won over MSCI, whose remaining major concern was the difficulty for foreigners to buy and sell stocks in China, where the government has significant influence over markets.

一年前，中国看上去即将赢得MSCI明晟的认可。当时它的主要顾虑是境外人士在中国买卖股票颇为困难，政府对股市影响很大。

One stock market crash later, however, the government’s grip has grown tighter.

不过后来股市崩溃，政府反而加紧了对它的掌控。

The heavy-handed government intervention after the crash raised questions about whether China’s volatile and highly speculative local markets could pass muster with global investors and regulators. Tactics used included banning big shareholders from selling stocks, detaining investors who bet on falling share prices and even suppressing independent economic information.

政府在股市暴跌后采取的重大干预行动引发了外界的疑问：中国股市波动巨大，投机性很强，它是否符合全球投资者和监管机构的要求？中国采取的措施包括禁止大股东抛售股票，拘押空头投资者，甚至是打压来自独立渠道的经济信息。

The extra money flowing into mainland stocks, or A shares, would have provided a much-needed boost. Despite the government intervention, Chinese stocks have been in a deep slump, off about 40 percent in the last 12 months.

如果有额外的资金注入A股，就可以为它提供急需的推动力。尽管中国政府采取了干预措施，中国股市却一直低迷，在过去12个月中跌幅达到40%左右。

“International institutional investors clearly indicated that they would like to see further improvements in the accessibility of the China A shares market before its inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index,” Remy Briand, the global head of research at MSCI, said in a statement on Tuesday.

“国际机构投资者明确表示，他们希望看到中国A股在被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数之前，其开放性得到进一步改善，”MSCI明晟负责全球研究的雷米·布赖恩德(Remy Briand)在周二的声明中称。

MSCI said it would reconsider A shares for inclusion in 2017.

MSCI明晟表示，将在2017年重新考虑是否纳入A股。

The index provider’s decision to delay for another year highlights persistent concerns among global investors about government meddling in local markets as well as the quality of regulation and company accounts.

MSCI明晟做出再延迟一年的决定，突显了全球投资者对中国政府干预股市、对监管质量及企业会计水准的持续担忧。

“Accounting in China is a state secret,” said Hugh Young, who oversees investments in Asia for Aberdeen, one of the world’s largest emerging markets investors. “Our money goes into companies, and we have had trouble finding the right ones to invest in.”

“在中国，会计账目是国家机密，”全球最大的新兴市场投资机构之一安本(Aberdeen)在亚洲的负责人杨修(Hugh Young)说。“我们的钱会进入企业，但我们已经很难找到合适的公司来投资。”

Most large investors get their China equity exposure by investing in large companies listed in Hong Kong or other overseas markets — like the internet giants Tencent and Alibaba — where companies must adhere to globally accepted financial rules and regulations. MSCI’s weighing toward China was already 25 percent, the largest of all the countries it tracks; analysts were guessing that China’s inclusion would add another 1 percent of Chinese exposure.

多数大型投资机构通过投资在香港或其他海外市场上市的大型企业——比如互联网巨头腾讯和阿里巴巴——的方式，来获得中国股票资产。在这些市场，公司必须遵循全球公认的财务规则和监管条例。中国在MSCI中的实际比重已经达到25%，是该指数追踪的最大一个国家；分析师们猜测，纳入A股将把这个比重再提高一个百分点。

MSCI said investors were also bothered by the stiff limits imposed on foreign investors withdrawing their funds from China.

MSCI明晟表示，投资者还有另一个困扰：境外投资者从中国撤出资金面临着严格限制。

The verdict will do little to lift the mood in China’s once bustling brokerage halls.

这个判定几乎无助于让中国曾经繁忙的交易厅兴奋起来。

On a recent afternoon inside a poorly lit trading hall near People’s Park in Shanghai, a dozen or so elderly investors were chatting among themselves as the final minutes of another trading day ticked away.

近日的一个下午，在上海人民公园附近一家光线昏暗的交易厅里，当天的交易时段马上就要结束，十几个老年股民正在聊天。

As the stock prices flashing on a bank of 21 LCD screens attested, the main Shanghai share index had staged a modest rally to recover from its earlier losses. But once again, the index had slumped back down into negative turf by the 3 p.m. close.

墙上21块液晶屏上闪烁着股票价格。上证指数之前在跌，后来小幅反弹。但是下午3点休市时已经又跌回阴线。

“It’s not about waiting it out, because if you try you will probably get wiped out,” said Mr. Ye, a 62-year-old retiree who declined to give his full name when speaking critically about the government’s stock market rescue efforts.

“等不是办法，如果你等，可能就会输得精光，”不愿透露全名的退休人员老叶说。他62岁，对政府的救市努力颇有微辞。

“It is really painful,” he added, estimating that most of the investors at the Shanghai trading hall had lost money over the past year. “This market isn’t really regulated.”

“真的很难受，”他还说。“股市没有被真正管起来。”他估计，这个上海交易厅的大多数股民过去一年都亏了钱。

The MSCI decision speaks to the caution signs in the market.

MSCI明晟的决定体现了市场的警惕。

When the index company delayed its decision a year ago, mainland stocks were at their frothiest. They had more than doubled over the previous 12 months.

一年前这家基准供应商推迟做出决定时，大陆股市泡沫正处在顶峰。在那之前的12个月里，其股市涨了一倍多。

At the time, the company said it was concerned about a number of restrictions in China. Certain rules made it challenging for global investors to move money in and out of the country, or even to prove with certainty their ownership of shares.

当时公司称他们担心的是中国的一些限制措施。一些规则阻碍了国际投资人的钱在这个国家的进出，甚至不能明确证明他们对股票的所有权。

Global investors also fretted about the curious ability of Chinese companies to stop trading in their stock whenever it seemed to suit their own needs. The practice stopped shares under pressure from falling further, but it did so by preventing investors from cashing out.

中国公司可以在任何他们觉得必要的时候停止其股票交易，这种奇特的能力令国际投资者十分苦恼。这种做法可以阻止有下行压力的股票进一步下跌，但同时也阻止投资者将股票抛出。

With an eye on making the cut at MSCI, China sought to address these concerns in recent months.

为了达到MSCI明晟的标准，中国在过去几个月里试图去解决这些困扰。

Last month, China’s stock exchanges published new rules that discouraged companies from halting trading in their own shares. China also took steps to give foreign investors greater access to its markets by increasing investment quotas.

上个月，中国的证交所发布新规，对企业的停牌加以限制。中国还通过增加投资额度来让外国投资者可以更多地进入其市场。

Last week, China said it would grant an initial renminbi-denominated investment quota to the United States, allowing American funds to purchase stocks worth as much as 250 billion renminbi, or $38 billion. American investors could previously buy into Chinese stocks through other methods, but the new quota provided significant direct access and ranked as the second-biggest of its kind under the renminbi program, after Hong Kong’s.

上周，中国称将向美国提供一笔人民币合格境外机构投资者额度，美国基金共可购买2500亿人民币（约合380亿美元）的股票。美国投资者此前可以通过其他途径购买中国股票，但新的额度大大降低了直接进入市场的门槛，使美国拥有了该人民币结算项目的第二大额度，仅次于香港。

This follows previous moves to open up mainland markets through a newer link between the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets, although it is also subject to investment caps and quotas. Chinese officials have said they plan to make stocks listed in Shenzhen eligible for the same scheme, connecting them to the Hong Kong market later this year.

在此之前，香港和上海股市建立了新的联系，从而进一步开放大陆市场，不过那种途径同样要收到上限和额度的限制。中国官员称他们打算把深圳股市也采取同样的方式处理，在今年晚些时候和香港股市连通。

Still, efforts to improve market regulations may be cold comfort for ordinary Chinese investors who are still nursing losses from last year’s stock market fallout.

但对于普通的中国投资者而言，去年股市崩盘的损失让他们心有余悸，这些改善市场监管的努力恐怕起不到什么安慰作用。

Mr. Tao, a 63-year-old retiree at the Shanghai brokerage who declined to give his first name because he spoke critically of the government’s actions, said he used a bit of his monthly pension of 1,600 renminbi, or $243, to dabble in the stock market.

在上海的证券大厅，63岁的退休人士陶先生说，他在用每月1600元退休金中的一部分玩股票。由于涉及批评政府行为的言论，他拒绝透露自己的全名。

Taking a break outside the brokerage to chat over a red Double Happiness cigarette, Mr. Tao said he was sitting on tidy profits until the market turned downward last June.

正在大厅外抽着双喜烟休息的陶先生说，他当时是稳赚的，结果去年6月股市开始暴跌。

Since then, his investments have given back more than 70 percent of those gains.

此后他在投资中赚到的钱70%以上又赔了回去。

“In investing, one misstep and you’re nabbed,” Mr. Tao said.

“炒股是一不小心就要套牢的，”陶先生说。

He added that it could take years to recover his lost profits. “Now I just want to wait it out,” he said.

他还说自己的收益损失可能要好几年才能收回来。“现在就只能是等了，”他说。