指数提供商 A股再遇MSCI明晟时刻
It was a year ago that index provider MSCI contemplated including Chinese domestic-listed A shares in its emerging market indices. The Chinese market was charging ahead, with the Shanghai Composite index peaking on June 12, two days after MSCI opted not to include the shares.
一年前，指数提供商MSCI明晟考虑把中国内地上市的A股纳入其新兴市场股指。那时中国股市涨势如虹，上证综指(Shanghai Composite index)在6月12日、即明晟决定暂不纳入A股的两天后见顶。
Officials in Beijing sat on the sidelines encouraging the rise, much of it based on borrowed money, while the local media took the euphoria as further confirmation of the ascent of China itself.
北京的官员们在场边鼓励股市上涨（此轮涨势有很大一部分是依靠借来的钱哄抬起来的），同时中国媒体把股民的乐观情绪解读为中国处于上升势头的进一步证明。
The mood would quickly shift. After last summer’s crash when more than half of all A shares were suspended at one point — and big listed brokerages spent money supporting the market at the request of regulators — the market sits 40 per cent below its peak of last June.
结果市场情绪很快转变。去年夏天中国股市发生崩盘，一度有超过半数的A股停牌，同时大型上市券商应监管部门的请求砸重金进场救市。目前股指水平仍比去年6月的高点低40%。
Buying with borrowed money is of course like building a house on sand: it is inherently unstable. Meanwhile, official buying to cushion the plunge in the market means that a larger part of the shareholder register is made up of the ever heavier hand of the state, through the China Securities Finance Corporation that lent money for the price support operation.
当然，用借来的钱购买就像在沙滩上建房子：它在本质上是不稳定的。与此同时，官方大举买入以遏止市场暴跌意味着，更多股东由越来越重的国家之手构成——通过为救市行动出借资金的中国证券金融股份有限公司（China Securities Finance Corp，简称：证金公司）。
The “A share market is walking in the long shadow of the rescue campaign toward normalisation”, Credit Suisse notes in a recent report.
“A股市场正在救市行动的长长阴影下走向正常化，”瑞信(Credit Suisse)在最近的一份报告中指出。
Now as the Shanghai market sits 15 per cent lower for 2016, the question over whether MSCI will include A shares has returned, with a decision expected on June 14.
现在，在上海股市进入2016年以来累计下跌15%的情况下，MSCI明晟会不会纳入A股的问题又回来了。预计该机构将在6月14日作出决定。
The subdued nature of the debate this year reflects how much has changed. The centre of gravity has swung in favour of pessimists, partly because of the way authorities in Beijing responded to the plunge in the stock market and pressure on the renminbi. Sentiment continues to deteriorate, despite some recent tinkering with the market rules.
今年辩论的低调特性反映出情况发生了多大的变化。重心已转向赞成悲观主义者的方向，部分原因在于中国官方回应股市暴跌的方式，以及人民币所受的压力。市场情绪继续恶化，尽管最近当局出台了一些调整市场规则的措施。
Last year, MSCI’s decision took place against a backdrop of lobbying pressures. On the one hand, large international investment houses such as BlackRock that had laughably small quotas ($1.5bn in BlackRock’s case) were pushing against inclusion. On the other, those that were exposed to China — in part, precisely because they anticipated that inclusion would lead to a wave of buying — were strong advocates.
去年，MSCI明晟是在游说压力之下做出决定的。一方面，贝莱德(BlackRock)等额度小得可笑的大型国际投资机构（贝莱德只有15亿美元）反对纳入A股。另一方面，那些已经拥有中国敞口（部分是因为他们预期A股被纳入新兴市场指数会导致一波买盘）的机构强烈提倡纳入A股。
Credit Suisse puts the chance of rejection at 60 per cent; Morgan Stanley is telling clients the likelihood is 50 per cent, while Goldman is the most bullish with a 70 per cent likelihood of inclusion.
瑞信估计今年不纳入的几率为60%；摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)告诉客户，这个几率是50%，而高盛(Goldman)最乐观，称纳入A股的几率高达70%。
Credit Suisse’s view did not stop it coming up with five stock picks that could be beneficiaries in the case of inclusion. Most of them offer exposures to sectors not available in Hong Kong, such as Kweichow Moutai, the maker of that strong alcoholic brew.
瑞信的观点并没有阻止它挑出五只有望受益于A股被纳入指数的个股。这些个股大多提供在香港股市不能获得的行业敞口，如烈性酒酿造商贵州茅台(Kweichow Moutai)。
Even if MSCI does open up its indices, the move will not necessarily lead to a wave of forced buying by those who benchmark against these indices. Indeed, international brokerages estimate the buying will add up to no more than $16.5bn, or a mere 0.2 per cent of total market capitalisation of the A shares.
即使MSCI明晟真的开放其指数，此举也未必导致以这些指数为基准的投资机构掀起一波被迫买盘。事实上，国际券商估计，A股被纳入指数所导致的买盘加起来不会超过165亿美元，相当于A股总市值的区区0.2%。
Another development next month could be the extension of the Stock Connect scheme — a mechanism introduced in 2014 that gives all international investors access to A shares. It is currently limited to Shanghai and Hong Kong but may be extended to Shenzhen. That too, though, is likely to prove incremental.
下月的另一项发展可能是沪港通机制的扩展——2014年开通的沪港通让所有境外投资者能够买卖A股。该机制目前仅限于上海和香港，但可能扩展到深港通。不过，此举也很可能只产生增量效果。
Today, few strategists would make the argument that share prices in China are a great buying opportunity. There are big question marks over huge stretches of the economy, led by banks whose problem loan figures are questionable and unlikely to improve even if the central bank lowers interest rates.
目前几乎没有策略师主张中国的股价水平意味着买入良机。中国经济多个行业的头上悬挂着巨大的问号，尤其是银行业，其不良贷款数据是有问题的，而且即使央行降低利率也不太可能好转。
The structural reform that could cut capacity dramatically and bring real profitability to state-owned enterprises seems to have been postponed. A weak currency also limits the attraction of the market to any foreign investors.
有可能大幅削减产能、并给国有企业带来真正盈利能力的结构性改革似乎已被推迟。人民币疲弱也限制了中国股市对境外投资者的吸引力。
In the past, the economy and the market seemed disconnected. Now they are moving together — with both emitting signals of gloom, if not outright distress. Whatever MSCI decides won’t change that.
过去，中国的经济和市场似乎是脱节的。现在它们向一个方向移动——两者都发出黯淡（如果还算不上困境的话）信号。无论MSCI明晟怎么决定，都不会改变这个局面。
