年新兴市场外国投资剧降 Investment in emerging markets hits post crisis low

Foreign investment in emerging markets has dropped to the lowest level since the financial crisis as investors are braced for the fallout of the first US interest rate rise in nearly a decade.

新兴市场吸收的外国投资已降至金融危机以来最低水平，投资者准备迎接美国近10年来首次加息的冲击波。

Years of growth fuelled by access to cheap funding by virtue of low interest rates in the developed world and China’s robust appetite for commodities are seen ending, leading economists at the Bank of International settlements to warn of negative spillovers as borrowing costs rise.

在发达国家低利率和中国对大宗商品旺盛需求助燃下实现的多年增长被认为正在结束，导致国际清算银行(BIS)的经济学家警告，随着借贷成本上升，将会出现负面溢出效应。

Prices in popular emerging market debt and equity benchmarks have already fallen, while net inflows from overseas investors have dropped from $285bn in 2014 to $66bn this year, according to the Institute for International Finance, a group representing the world’s largest financial companies.

热门的新兴市场基准债券和股票的价格已经下降，同时根据代表全球大型金融公司的组织——国际金融研究所(Institute for International Finance)的数据，来自海外投资者的净流入已经从2014年的2850亿美元降至今年的660亿美元。

Investors are divided as to whether the anticipated rate increase by the US Federal Reserve tomorrow has already played out, or will intensify stress for indebted companies and economies.

对于美联储(Federal Reserve)预计本周宣布的加息已经产生了效应，还是会进一步加大负债企业和经济体所受的压力，投资者意见分歧。

“This has been a miserable year for EM,” said Paul McNamara, investment director of emerging markets at GAM, the Swiss fund house. “There has been a steady bleed out of assets and no one is certain what shape the market might be in this time next week.”

“对新兴市场来说，今年是惨淡的一年，”瑞士基金管理公司GAM的新兴市场投资总监保罗麦克纳马拉(Paul McNamara)表示。“资产不断流失，而没有人肯定下周这个时候市场会是什么样子。”

Anxiety has been fanned by the build-up of corporate debt in emerging markets, which doubled between 2008 and 2014 and has been one of the fastest growing areas of the global bond market.

加剧人们焦虑的是，新兴市场的企业债务近年不断积累，从2008年至2014年增加了一倍，近年一直是全球债券市场增长最快的领域之一。

“Policymakers around the world are cognisant of the impact the Fed decision will have and are worried, which makes us worried,” said Simon Lue-Fong, head of global emerging debt at Pictet Asset Management. “People are saying the decision is priced in but seeing as no one knows exactly what will happen how can that possibly be true.”

“世界各地的政策制定者认识到美联储的决定将产生什么影响，为此忧心忡忡，这让我们担心，”百达资产管理公司(Pictet Asset Management)全球新兴债券部门主管Simon Lue-Fong表示。“人们在说美联储的决定已被反映到价格上，但既然没人知道究竟会发生什么，这怎么可能呢。”

Emerging market focused fund groups have endured a torrid year with sharply lower assets under management at Aberdeen and Ashmore. Emerging market exchange traded funds have also suffered heavy redemptions, with investors pulling $9.5bn from BlackRock’s iShares MSCI Emerging Markets and Vanguard’s FTSE Emerging Markets, according to .

专注于新兴市场的基金集团经历了难熬的一年，安本(Aberdeen)和安石(Ashmore)的资产管理规模都严重缩水。新兴市场交易所交易基金(ETF)也遭遇大规模赎回，数据显示，投资者从贝莱德(BlackRock)旗下基金iShares MSCI Emerging Markets以及先锋(Vanguard)富时新兴市场(FTSE Emerging Markets)撤出95亿美元。

“Even if you have made your peace with a Fed rate rise there are other reasons to be nervous,” said David Hauner, head of emerging markets at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who points to falling oil prices and the slowdown in China to illustrate why market volatility measured by the CBOE’s Vix index, a barometer of investor sentiment, has been elevated since August.

“即使你已经接受美联储加息的现实，也还有其他原因感到紧张，”美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)新兴市场负责人戴维樠纳(David Hauner)表示。他指出，油价不断下跌和中国经济增长放缓，是CBOE的VIX指数（反映投资者情绪的晴雨表）所衡量的市场波动水平自8月以来居高不下的其中两大原因。

Benchmark oil prices dropped below $40 a barrel last week, the lowest level in six years, darkening investor sentiment towards commodity-linked companies and exporting countries including Brazil, Russia and South Africa.

基准原油价格上周跌破每桶40美元大关，至六年最低位，导致投资者对大宗商品相关企业和出口国家（包括巴西、俄罗斯和南非）情绪更加黯淡。