新兴市场警报尚未解除 Fed rate rise threatens to hurt emerging markets

A momentous era in monetary history is over. A hike in short-term US interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade has called an end to the near-zero borrowing costs that have prevailed since the financial crisis. Equity investors welcomed the move, sending stock prices higher in the US, Europe and Asia. Even emerging markets, many of which have feared the fallout from a US rise, generally took the widely expected move in their stride.

货币政策历史上的一个重要时代已经结束。美国短期利率近10年来的首次上调，终结了自金融危机以来广泛存在的近乎为零的借款成本。股市投资者对此举表示欢迎，美国、欧洲和亚洲股价均被推高。甚至连新兴市场（其中很多国家一直担心美国加息的影响）也基本上对这一普遍预期中的举措处之泰然。

The short-term reaction, however, should not obscure the fundamental challenge that a tightening in US monetary policy poses to developing economies that together account for about 35 per cent of global gross domestic product. If the Federal Reserve’s tightening trajectory is sustained in 2016 — and its own forecast suggests that it should be — the impact on two particularly vulnerable aspects could prove considerable. One of these is the unwinding of a huge emerging market borrowing boom that was fuelled by US-inspired easy money. Another is that China, beset by record capital outflows, could be forced to allow a deep depreciation of its currency, the renminbi.

然而，短期反应不应掩盖美国货币政策收紧对发展中经济体构成的根本挑战。发展中经济体占全球经济产出的35%左右。如果美联储(Fed)的货币收紧趋势在2016年继续保持（美联储自己的预测显示应该会是如此），那么事实可能会证明，它对两个尤为脆弱的方面将产生巨大影响。其中一个是新兴市场大规模借款热潮结束，该热潮之前曾受到由美国导致的宽松货币的助燃。另一个是受到创纪录资本外流困扰的中国可能被迫让人民币大幅贬值。

The dimensions of the debt problem are forbidding. Some $9tn in capital has flowed into emerging markets since early 2005, inflating domestic debt levels to an unprecedented 160 per cent of GDP, up from just over 100 per cent before the financial crisis, according to data compiled by the Institute of International Finance, an industry association that has members in 70 countries. Most of this debt has piled up on the balance sheets of non-financial companies, which now owe around $24tn, or 90 per cent of total emerging market GDP. Households, which have also gorged themselves on cheap money, have built up debts of about $8tn, equivalent to another 30 per cent of GDP.

债务问题的规模相当可怕。根据国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)编制的数据，自2005年初以来，有大约9万亿美元资金流入新兴市场，令这些国家的国内债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比升至空前的160%，而在金融危机之前该比率仅略高于100%。国际金融协会是一个行业协会，其会员来自全球70个国家。这些债务多数累积在非金融类企业的资产负债表上，这些企业现在借款约24万亿美元，为新兴市场GDP总额的90%。家庭部门也大举借入了廉价资金，债务已累积至约8万亿美元，相当于GDP的30%。

The danger now is that tightening US policy will foist a credit crunch on to emerging markets, increasing corporate defaults. Indeed, the squeeze already under way is stiffening. Emerging market companies are being asked to pay more to service debts, while sources of finance are dwindling, according to the investment bank arm of HSBC. Reinforcing these effects is evidence that the surge of capital that flowed into emerging markets over the past decade has started to reverse. The IIF forecasts that, for the first time since 1988, developing countries will suffer a net capital outflow this year.

现在的危险是，美国收紧货币政策将把信贷紧缩强加给新兴市场，企业违约数量将因此增多。实际上，已出现的信贷紧缩正在加剧。根据汇丰(HSBC)旗下投行的数据，新兴市场企业正被要求支付更多金额来偿债，而资金来源却在缩减。过去10年新兴市场资金流入飙升的趋势已开始逆转，便是这些影响正在加剧的证明。国际金融协会预测，发展中国家今年将遭遇资本净流出，这是1988年以来的首次。

Of course, the impact is not being felt evenly throughout emerging markets. Most exposed are countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa, which rely on a drip-feed of international capital to service ballooning domestic deficits and corporate profligacy. In addition, companies that have borrowed heavily in US dollars but earn incomes in their local currency are particularly vulnerable to the prospect of a stronger dollar backed by a more hawkish Fed.

当然，新兴市场受到的影响并不一致。受到最严重影响的是巴西、印尼、俄罗斯和南非等国，它们依赖国际资本的注入来弥补日益扩大的国内赤字和企业挥霍。另外，大举借入美元但收入为本币的企业，尤其容易受到美元升值前景的影响，而更为强硬的美联储正在支撑这一前景。

China presents a challenge of a different nature. Its monetary cycle is out of kilter with that of the Fed, with analysts predicting that Beijing will cut its benchmark interest rate twice during 2016. Such loosening, coupled with capital outflows that surged to a monthly record of $113bn in November, may add to pressures on the renminbi to depreciate against the US dollar next year. If this happens, history has shown that an Asia-centred currency war may well erupt.

中国面临的挑战则不同。其货币周期与美联储并不同步，分析师预测，中国将在2016年两次下调基准利率。这种宽松政策，再加上资本外流（今年11月飙升至1130亿美元的月度创纪录水平），可能会加剧明年人民币对美元的贬值压力。如果这种情况发生，历史表明，一场以亚洲为核心的汇率战很有可能打响。

For these reasons, policymakers, executives and investors should guard against reading this week’s initial reaction to the Fed’s hike as a long-term trend. If the Fed maintains its tightening course, emerging markets could be laid low by a receding tide of money.

出于这些原因，政策制定者、企业高管和投资者应当小心，不要将本周市场对美联储加息的初步反应解读为长期趋势。如果美联储继续保持收紧路线，新兴市场可能会因资金大潮的退去而受到重创。