什么是新兴市场 What is an emerging market?

What is an emerging market?

什么是新兴市场？

The term began as a euphemism for the pejorative-sounding “third world” but, as the FT argues, “emerging market” now stands for a haphazard collection of countries with varying economic sizes and growth rates.

这个词原本是听起来带有贬义的“第三世界”的委婉说法，但英国《金融时报》认为，“新兴市场”现在代表一个由不同经济规模、不同增长率国家组成的大杂烩。

The classification matters primarily because of index providers such as MSCI and JPMorgan that have a major influence over how International portfolio investors allocate their money. An estimated $10.3tn is invested in so-called emerging markets.

分类之所以重要，主要是因为MSCI明晟和摩根大通(JPMorgan)等指数提供商对国际证券投资者配置资金的方式有重大影响。据估计，总共有10.3万亿美元的资金投入了所谓的新兴市场。

This helps explain why Greece’s stock market actually rallied when the country was demoted from developed to emerging status by MSCI in November 2013. Less than $200m of passive money tracking developed market indices would seep out of Greece as a result, according to one HSBC estimate, while inflows from emerging markets investors could top $1bn.

这有助于解释为何2013年11月MSCI将希腊从发达市场降级为新兴市场时，希腊股市反而上涨了。根据汇丰(HSBC)的一项估计，那次降级导致不到2亿美元追踪发达市场指数的被动资金从希腊“渗出”，而新兴市场投资者投入该国的资金可能突破了10亿美元。

Just how many emerging markets are there?

新兴市场到底有多少个？

According to the International Monetary Fund 152. Just 23, says MSCI.

按国际货币基金组织(IMF)的说法是152个。按MSCI的说法则只有23个。

The IMF classification basically comes from dividing the world in two: advanced economies, and emerging and developing economies. Its criteria are per capita income, export diversification and degree of integration into the global financial system.

IMF的分类基本是将世界一分为二：发达经济体，以及新兴和发展中经济体。其划分标准是人均收入、出口的多样化以及融入全球金融体系的程度。

MSCI, by contrast, approaches the issue from the point of view of investible equities, so its division of the world into developed, emerging and frontier markets is based on the level of market access to foreign investors, and standards of size and liquidity.

相比之下，MSCI是从可投资股票的角度来处理这一问题，因此它依据外国投资者的市场准入程度以及规模和流动性标准，将世界分为发达、新兴和前沿市场。

MSCI offers a Frontier Emerging Markets Index, with 163 equities from 28 countries — of which four: Colombia, Egypt, Peru and the Philippines are also represented in its Emerging Markets Index. Launched in 1988 it includes the shares of 838 listed companies from just 23 countries including 85 per cent of the market capitalisation of equities in each nation, weighted according to free float (the shares available to investors).

MSCI提供一个前沿市场指数(MSCI Frontier Emerging Markets Index)，包含28个国家的163只股票——其中，哥伦比亚、埃及、秘鲁和菲律宾同时也是MSCI新兴市场指数(MSCI EM Index)的构成部分。1988年推出的MSCI新兴市场指数包含仅23个国家的838家上市公司的股票，以自由流通股（投资者可以购买的股票）加权计算，该指数涵盖了其中每一个国家股票市值的85%。

Do emerging markets actually emerge?

新兴市场真的在兴起吗？

Not really. Argentina once had developed status and lost it — as did Greece. Japan and Singapore are widely said to have gained developed status since the second world war, but others, such as Venezuela, seem to be “submerging” instead in that its economy has imploded under policy mismanagement, with soaring inflation, a collapsing currency and widespread shortages of the most basic household essentials.

并非如此。阿根廷曾拥有发达市场的身份，但又失去了——希腊也是如此。人们普遍认为日本和新加坡在二战后赢得了发达市场的身份，但其他国家，比如委内瑞拉，似乎反而是在“下潜”，其经济因政策管理不善而崩溃，造成通胀飙升、货币急剧贬值、以及最基本的生活必需品普遍短缺。

At issue is an idea implicit in the emerging markets concept: that those economies are on the way up, riding an escalator to developed market status. Some may be. But others are not.

目前的争议焦点是暗含在新兴市场概念中的一个看法，即新兴市场经济体正在兴起、搭上了升为发达市场的扶梯。其中一些经济体可能是这样。但另一些并非如此。

Why all the fuss about this term now?

为什么现在要拿这个词大做文章？

Because investors, economists and commentators are coming to the conclusion that it has outlived its usefulness and has actually become counter-productive.

因为投资者、经济学家和评论人士正得出一个结论：这个词过时了，不仅不再有用，而且实际上还产生了反效果。