中国放开银行间债市或引入数万亿美元资金

A little-reported rule change by China’s central bank last week could unleash trillions of dollars of foreign investment into the country.

上周中国央行(PBoC)一条几乎从未见诸报端的规则变更，或将向中国释放数以万亿计的境外投资。

Foreign institutional investors, including commercial banks, insurance companies, asset managers and pension funds, have been given the green light to invest in China’s domestic interbank bond market en masse, without being limited by fiddly quotas.

包括商业银行、保险公司、资产管理公司及养老基金在内的境外机构投资者，被一同授予投资中国境内银行间债券市场的权利，而不必受限于麻烦的额度。

Z-Ben Advisors, a Shanghai-based consultancy, said the People’s Bank of China “effectively threw the previous access rule book out the window” by opening up the bulk of the Rmb48tn ($7.3tn) onshore credit market.

总部位于上海的咨询公司泽奔咨询(Z-Ben Advisors)表示，通过开放48万亿元人民币（合7.3万亿美元）的境内信贷市场的主要部分，中国央行“实际上把此前的中国市场准入规定抛到了一边”。

“An unprecedented opportunity, hyperbole warranted, is knocking: the world’s third-largest credit market will now be open. This change should trigger significant portfolio repositioning among global investors,” added Z-Ben, which foresaw foreign investment of $1.3tn into China’s onshore credit market over the next five years.

泽奔咨询补充道：“一个史无前例的机遇正在叩门（这么说虽夸张但不为过）：全球第三大信贷市场如今将要开放了。这一变化应该会在全球投资者中引发资产组合的大幅度配置调整。”泽奔咨询预计，今后五年将有1.3万亿美元的外国投资流入中国境内信贷市场。

Hayden Briscoe, director of Asia Pacific fixed income at AllianceBernstein, went further still, forecasting inflows of $2.5tn.

联博(AllianceBernstein)亚太固定收益部门主管海登•布里斯科(Hayden Briscoe)则更进了一步，预计流入资金规模将达2.5万亿美元。

Rajeev De Mello, head of Asian fixed income at Schroders, said: “We believe that many global institutional investors will welcome this news as it gives them the opportunity to increase their holdings in Asia in a large liquid market in addition to Japan.”

施罗德(Schroders)亚洲固定收益部门主管拉吉夫•德梅洛(Rajeev De Mello)表示：“我们相信，许多全球性机构投资者将欢迎这则消息，因为它为他们带来一次机遇，令他们能够在除日本以外的另一个亚洲大型流动性市场提高对亚洲债券的持有。”

Given that close to 95 per cent of onshore trading occurs in the interbank market, which is also far more liquid than the smaller exchange-traded arena, the move “will dramatically integrate China’s bond market into the global fixed income system”, said Axa Investment Managers in a statement.

安盛投资管理(Axa Investment Managers)在一份声明中表示，考虑到近95%的中国境内交易发生在银行间市场，该市场的流动性也远远大于规模较小的交易所交易领域，这一举措“将把中国债券市场显著融入全球固定收益体系”。

Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management, said that “due to a combination of prejudice, ignorance and overly conservative and inflexible investment practices”, most institutional investors still have no meaningful exposure to the onshore Chinese credit market.

安石投资管理(Ashmore Investment Management)研究主管简•德恩(Jan Dehn)表示，“投资操作中的偏见、无知、过度保守以及死板结合在一起”，导致多数机构投资者对中国境内信贷市场的敞口仍不值一提。

Foreign ownership was just 1.6 per cent, as of November, compared with 30-40 per cent in some other emerging market countries, such as Mexico and Indonesia.

截至去年11月，债券由外资持有的比例只有1.6%，而在墨西哥和印尼等部分其他新兴市场国家，这一比例在30%到40%之间。

The move by the PBoC echoes that of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which earlier in February loosened restrictions on foreign investment in China’s onshore equity markets.

中国央行此举呼应了国家外汇管理局(State Administration of Foreign Exchange)此前的举措：今年2月，国家外汇管理局放宽了对合格境外机构投资者投资境内证券市场的限制。

That was widely seen as a way of encouraging capital inflows into the country, which has seen its foreign reserves fall by $770bn to $3.23tn since they peaked in June 2014.

这类举措被广泛认为是一种鼓励资金流入中国的办法。中国的外汇储备自2014年6月见顶以后，已减少7700亿美元至3.23万亿美元。

The liberalisation by Safe was also seen as clearing the path for Chinese equities to be included in the major indices tracked by institutional investors, which would be expected to unleash far greater foreign buying.

国家外汇管理局对政策的放宽，也被视为是为机构投资者跟踪的主要股指纳入中国股票扫清障碍。主要股指纳入中国股票，预计会释放大得多的来自境外的资产购买力。

Likewise, the freeing up of China’s onshore credit market also helps prepare the ground for entry into the major bond indices.

与此类似，中国境内信贷市场的放开，也有助于为主要债券指数纳入中国债券打下基础。

“We think the expansion of market access could potentially open the door for Chinese renminbi bonds to be included in global indices, such as Citigroup’s World Government Bond Index, which can support the currency over the medium to long term,” wrote Aidan Yao, senior economist, and Jason Pang, a fixed income manager, at Axa Investment Managers.

安盛投资管理的资深经济学家姚远(Aidan Yao)和固定收益产品经理彭逸升(Jason Pang)写道：“我们认为，中国市场准入的扩大，可能会为中国的人民币债券被纳入国际债券指数（比如花旗集团(Citigroup)的全球政府债券指数(World Government Bond index)）开启大门，这可能会在中长期内对人民币起到支撑作用。”

“[This] could usher in ‘sticky’ capital inflows, helping to balance the capital account and ease pressure on the renminbi.”

“（这）或将导入‘带有粘性的’流入资金，有助于实现资本账户平衡和减轻人民币面临的压力。”

Citi declined to comment for this story but is expected to release a statement in the next few days.

花旗拒绝对这一报道置评，不过预计该集团会在今后几天内发布声明。

JPMorgan said Chinese bonds still remained ineligible for its GBI-EM Global Diversified index as they still did not meet all the rules for inclusion. Specifically, JPMorgan said a minimum three-month holding period for foreign institutional investors and a monthly withdrawal limit “constitute a capital control from an index eligibility perspective”.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)表示，由于中国债券仍未满足其全球新兴市场多元化债券指数(GBI-EM Global Diversified)的所有纳入规则，这些债券目前仍无被该指数纳入的资格。摩根大通表示，具体说来，境外机构投资者最低三个月的持有期及每月汇出资金规模的上限限制，“从可纳入性的角度来说构成了资本管制行为”。

However, Mr Dehn argued the remaining “minor obstacles” would not prevent inclusion in the major bond indices for long.

然而，德恩认为，剩余的“小障碍”不会长久阻止中国债券被纳入主要债券指数。

“China’s markets are a juggernaut and the remaining obstacles to index inclusion will likely be overcome very soon, in our view,” he said. “King Canute famously did not succeed in holding back the tide; neither will the index providers.”

“在我们看来，中国市场规模巨大，剩余的指数纳入障碍可能会很快消除，”他表示，“克努特国王(King Canute)没有抵挡住潮水；指数供应商们也不能。”

If and when onshore Chinese bonds do join the indices, the impact is likely to be significant.

如果中国境内债券真的加入了这些指数，其影响可能是巨大的。

Approximately $1.5tn of government bonds are in issuance, $430bn of which would be eligible in principle for the GBI-EM Global Diversified index. JPMorgan says its rules exclude bonds smaller than $1bn, those with a maturity of less than a year and those where reliable two-way pricing is not available.

目前，中国发行的政府债券规模大约为1.5万亿美元，其中有4300亿美元的债券基本符合摩根大通全球新兴市场多元化债券指数的纳入条件。摩根大通表示，其规则拒绝纳入规模小于10亿美元的债券、剩余期限不到一年的债券、以及不具备可靠双向报价的债券。

This would be enough to give China the maximum 10 per cent weight in the index, alongside Brazil, Mexico and Poland.

这足以让中国债券获得该指数最高10%的权重，与巴西、墨西哥和波兰并驾齐驱。

However Thailand would see its weighting fall from 9.2 per cent to 7.5 per cent, while Turkey, Malaysia, Hungary and Russia would also suffer a decline of more than a percentage point, potentially depriving their governments of valuable funding as foreign investors rebalance towards China.

然而，泰国的权重将从9.2%降至7.5%，土耳其、马来西亚、匈牙利和俄罗斯的权重也将下滑一个百分点以上，随着外国投资者转向中国，这些政府可能会丧失宝贵的资金。

Axa IM estimates that, if deemed eligible for Citi’s WGBI, China would have a weighting of “up to 18 per cent”.

安盛投资管理估计，如果花旗认为中国债券满足其全球政府债券指数的纳入条件，中国将获得“最高18%”的权重。

Given the rapid expansion of China’s onshore corporate bond market, with record issuance of nearly Rmb6tn in 2015, as depicted in the first chart, the country could also expect to become a meaningful element of indices covering this asset class as well, in the fullness of time.

鉴于中国境内公司债券市场的快速扩张（如第一张图表所示，2015年的发行规模创下近6万亿元人民币的记录），假以时日，中国可能还有望成为涵盖这一资产类别的指数的重要组成部分。

One of the key attractions of the Chinese bond market to foreign investors could be its yields. Chinese five-year government bonds currently yield more than 2.5 per cent in nominal terms, or more than 1 per cent in real terms after adjusting for inflation.

中国债券市场吸引外国投资者的关键因素之一可能是收益率。中国5年期政府债券名义收益率目前超过2.5%，经通胀调整后的实际收益率超过1%。

While this might not sound hugely exciting, Mr Dehn points out that five-year bonds denominated in all the other currencies in the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights basket (those of the US, UK, Japan and Germany [representing the euro]) currently have negative real yields.

这听上去可能不是非常令人兴奋，但德恩指出，以国际货币基金组织(IMF)特别提款权货币篮子其他所有货币计价的5年期债券（美国债券、英国债券、日本债券以及以欧元计价的德国债券），目前实际收益率都为负。

However, investors may want to see greater clarity of the future direction of the renminbi before putting more money to work, as adverse currency moves could easily wipe out the pick up in yields.

然而，投资者可能希望在投入更多资金之前更明确人民币的未来走势，因为汇率下行可能会轻易抹除收益率的提升。

Yields on Chinese corporate bonds have trended lower in recent years, but remain reasonably high at 3 to 4.5 per cent for higher rated paper. Yields on debt rated double A minus by domestic agencies are noticeably higher, as the second chart shows, reflecting rising fear of default.

最近几年，中国公司债券收益率呈走低趋势，但较高评级公司债券收益率仍高居3%至4.5%。如第二张图所示，被国内评级机构评为AA-的公司债券收益率明显较高，这反映出对这些债券违约的担忧上升。

However Moody’s said it did not expect to see “large-scale” defaults, even though some steel, coal mining, shipbuilding and cement companies could run into trouble this year.

然而，穆迪(Moody's)表示，尽管一些钢铁、煤炭开采、造船和水泥企业今年可能陷入困境，但预计中国不会出现“大规模”违约。

The measures to open up both China’s equity and bond markets to greater foreign investment may also be construed as a further sign that Beijing is “asymmetrically opening [its] capital account”, Axa said, encouraging inflows but discouraging outflows.

安盛投资管理表示，允许更多外国投资进入中国股市和债市的举措，也可能会被解读为又一个信号，表明中国政府正“不对称地放开资本账户”，鼓励资本流入但遏制资本流出。

Last week China mothballed two pioneering outbound investment schemes designed to allow domestic investors to buy foreign equities and bonds, while restrictions have also been placed on mainlanders’ purchase of insurance in Hong Kong.

上周，中国暂停了两项旨在允许境内投资者购买境外股票和债券的开创性对外投资计划，此前，中国还对内地居民在香港购买保险设置了限制。

“The authorities are managing the capital account asymmetrically to ease the downward pressure on the renminbi,” said Messrs Yao and Pang.

安盛投资管理的姚远和彭逸升表示：“政府正不对称地管控资本账户，以缓解人民币下行压力。”

“On the one hand, the PBoC has expedited the opening of capital inflows. On the other hand, controls on capital outflows have been increasingly tightened.”

“一方面，央行加快了资本流入的放开。另一方面，对资本流出的管制日益增强。”