2030年中国投资行业将管理17万亿美元资产

Asset management in China is a relatively young industry that is on track for an extended period of strong growth, due to the country’s ageing population and the rising wealth of the expanding middle class.

资产管理在中国是一个相对年轻的行业，但是鉴于中国人口老龄化和不断壮大的中产阶层财富日益增加，该行业正处于长期强劲增长的轨道。

As a result, China’s investment industry will see its assets under management grow to around $17tn by 2030 from around $2.8tn at the end of last year, according to Casey Quick, the consultancy.

咨询公司Casey Quick预测，其结果是，中国投资行业的管理资产将从去年底的2.8万亿美元左右，增至2030年的17万亿美元左右。

Around half ($8.5tn) of the net new inflows attracted by investment managers globally by 2030 will go to Chinese companies, helping the country to become the world’s second-largest asset management market behind the US.

到2030年，全球投资管理公司吸引的资金净流入量中，大约一半（8.5万亿美元）将流向中国公司，推动中国成为世界第二大资产管理市场，仅次于美国。

Casey Quick said that wealthy Chinese business owners along with retail investors would account for half of the expected asset growth by 2030.

Casey Quick称，富裕的中国企业主和散户投资者将占到截至2030年的预期资产增长的一半。

Pension assets are projected to grow by around 10 per cent a year, helped by the expansion of workplace retirement savings schemes.

在工作单位退休储蓄计划扩大的推动下，养老金资产预计将每年增长10%左右。

Insurance companies will also outsource more business to third-party asset managers to help boost returns, but new funding for China’s two sovereign wealth funds is expected to be limited, leaving their future growth dependent on asset allocation decisions and market movements.

保险公司也将外包更多业务给第三方资产管理公司，以帮助提高回报，但中国两只主权财富基金的新资金预计将会有限，这意味着它们的未来增长将依赖于资产配置决策和市场变动。

Foreign managers, however, will face significant challenges in winning new business in China. Foreign managers are expected to capture just 6 per cent of the Chinese market, given the distinct home-country bias that exists among mainland investors and the strong relationships between local investment managers and product distributors.

然而，试图在中国赢得新业务的外资管理公司将面临重大挑战。考虑到内地投资者存在明显的本土偏向，以及本地投资管理公司和产品分销商之间的密切关系，外资管理公司预计只能争取到中国市场6%的业务。

But further measures to liberate China’s capital markets could benefit foreign managers, who will retain an advantage in international asset markets. Allocations to non-Chinese asset classes are expected to grow to around 17 per cent by 2030 for Chinese institutional investors and to 15 per cent for wealthy individuals.

但是，放开中国资本市场的进一步措施可能惠及在国际资产市场上保持优势的外资管理公司。预计到2030年，中国机构投资者对中国以外资产类别的配置将增至17%左右，中国富人投资者的这一比例将增至15%。