中国面临2.7万亿美元债券再融资挑战

China’s $4tn bond market faces a refinancing challenge over the next five years as more than half of the outstanding debt matures, heightening concerns over default risk by some borrowers.

中国4万亿美元的债券市场将在接下来5年面临再融资挑战，原因是超过一半的未偿付债务将要到期，这加剧了人们对某些借款人的违约风险的担忧。

Companies, state-owned enterprises, financial institutions and sovereign borrowers — including the central government and local authorities — have $409bn of onshore and offshore bonds maturing in 2018, followed by $619bn in 2019 and $664bn in 2020, according to data provider Dealogic. The $2.7tn in maturing debt represents more than half the total amount of China’s $4tn in outstanding bond issuance, including perpetual bonds.

根据数据提供商Dealogic的数据，2018年，中国的公司、国有企业、金融机构和主权借款人（包括中央政府和地方政府）将有4090亿美元在岸和离岸债券到期，2019年为6190亿美元，2020年为6640亿美元。将要到期的2.7万亿美元债务占中国4万亿美元未偿付债务总额（包括永续债）的一半以上。

A test for many borrowers is that new debt will be more expensive given a higher interest rate environment.

对许多借款人来说的一个考验是，在利率走高的环境下，新债的成本将会提高。

Alex Wolf, senior emerging markets economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments, said: “If companies reissue or borrow at higher rates then it would raise overall debt servicing costs.”

安本标准投资管理(Aberdeen Standard Investments)新兴市场高级经济学家亚历克斯?沃尔夫(Alex Wolf)表示：“如果公司以更高的利率重新发债或借款，那将推高总偿债成本。”

Higher servicing costs are expected to weigh on some borrowers, given the scale of China’s debt binge in recent years.

考虑到近年来中国债务狂潮的规模，预计更高的偿债成本将给一些借款人带来压力。

Analysts at Dealogic said that “there is a reason for worry” as “the whole economy has been built on too much debt”, which “could be a [source of] pressure for the companies.”

Dealogic的一些分析师表示“有理由”担忧，因为“整个经济建立在太多债务之上”，这“可能成为公司的压力（来源）”。

A significant amount of short-term debt was sold in 2015 to finance corporate activity, with a large portion of this issuance maturing over the next few years, said Dealogic.

Dealogic表示，2015年发售了大量短期债券，为企业活动提供资金，其中很大一部分将在接下来几年到期。

Li-Gang Liu, chief China economist at Citi Group, said: “We worry about corporate debt. State owned-enterprises are a major debtor in the Chinese economy. I do see more defaults will be allowed this year than last year.”

花旗集团(Citi Group)首席中国经济学家刘利刚说：“我们担心企业债。国有企业是中国经济中的一大债务人。我认为相对于去年，今年将允许发生更多的违约。”

Citi said there have been 89 corporate defaults since the first case a few years ago. In 2016 there were 48 defaults, although this reduced to 33 last year, Citi said. Mr Liu added that the government is nonetheless “cautious” in allowing state-owned enterprises to default, and would not permit widespread defaults.

花旗表示，自几年前发生第一例企业违约之后，迄今已经发生89起。花旗表示，2016年有48起违约，尽管2017年减少到33起。但刘利刚表示，政府在允许国有企业违约方面较为“谨慎”，并且政府不会允许大面积违约。

Mr Wolf added: “In terms of how China has always handled debt and credit issues, the interesting question is whether we will see political choices to allow more state-owned enterprises to default.”

沃尔夫补充称：“在中国处理债务和信贷问题的一贯方式方面，有趣的问题是，我们是否将看到允许更多国有企业违约的政治选择。”

Bond defaults have been rare in China’s onshore corporate bond market until recently, with the government often intervening to bail out troubled issuers. The first onshore corporate bond default occurred in March 2014, after privately owned Chaori Solar missed an interest payment.

直到不久前，在中国的在岸企业债券市场上，债券违约都很少见，政府通常会介入，为陷入困境的发债者纾困。第一起在岸企业债券违约发生在2014年3月，当时民营的上海超日太阳能科技(Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology)未能如期偿付一笔利息。

Baoding Tianwei, a power equipment manufacturer, became the first SOE to default in 2015. The default led analysts to suggest this was a sign that the Chinese government was more willing to let market forces take precedence.

2015年发生了第一起国企债券违约，违约方是电力设备制造商保定天威(Baoding Tianwei)。这起违约使分析师认为，这是中国政府更愿意让市场力量占上风的一个迹象。

Some market commentators believe the refinancing does not pose a significant risk. Analysts at Moody’s, which only rates offshore Chinese bonds, said earlier this week that “the debt maturity and subsequent refinancing needs of Asian corporates” this year will “be manageable”.

一些市场评论人士认为，再融资不构成重大风险。只评级中国离岸债权的穆迪(Moody's)近日表示，今年“亚洲企业的债务到期和之后的再融资需求”将是“可控的”。

They said that “the buoyant bond market” last year allowed many Asian companies to issue debt for refinancing. They added that 2017 saw the “all-time strongest rated issuance level for Asia”.

他们表示，去年“繁荣的债券市场”让许多亚洲公司能够为再融资发债。他们补充称，2017年“亚洲的发债速度达到空前水平”。