FT社评:英国面临双重挑战

Brexit was always a threat to the territorial integrity of the UK. The Leave campaign airily dismissed such talk as scaremongering. It was not, as Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, made plain on Monday.

英国退欧(Brexit)一直对联合王国的领土完整构成威胁。脱欧阵营毫不在意地不理会这种言论，认为这是危言耸听。事实并非如此，正如苏格兰首席大臣尼古拉?斯特金(Nicola Sturgeon)周一所表明的那样。

Ms Sturgeon’s demand for a second referendum on Scottish independence comes as the UK government prepares to trigger Article 50, setting in motion divorce proceedings with the EU. The Brexit negotiations will be hard enough. Simultaneously fighting a Scottish referendum campaign would be a nightmare for Theresa May. It would also be against Scotland’s interests to make an irrevocable decision without knowing the terms of Brexit — an irony which will not be lost on Britain’s voters.

斯特金要求举行第二次苏格兰独立公投之际，英国政府正准备触发欧盟《里斯本条约》第50条(Article 50)，启动脱离欧盟的程序。英国退欧谈判将会非常艰难。同时要应对一场苏格兰公投运动，将是特里萨?梅(Theresa May)的噩梦。在不知英国退欧条款的情况下做出不可撤销的决定，也不符合苏格兰的利益——英国选民将感受到其中的讽刺意味。

Yet Ms Sturgeon can argue legitimately that there has been a material change in political circumstances since the Scottish referendum in 2014. It may be a mistake for Scotland to demand a second vote, and voting to go might leave Scotland poorer and weaker; but Brexit changes everything.

然而，斯特金可以合理地认为，自从2014年的苏格兰公投以来，政治环境发生了重大变化。苏格兰要求第二次公投也许是一个错误，投票离开也许会使苏格兰变得更贫穷、更弱小；但英国退欧会改变一切。

Economic reality has changed too, but not in Scotland’s favour. Scotland’s flow of trade with the rest of the UK is still four times its trade with the rest of Europe, but oil prices are lower now. It is running a deep budget deficit, and continues to receive a significant slew of subsidies from Westminister.

经济现实也发生了变化，但并非有利于苏格兰。苏格兰与联合王国其他地区的贸易量仍是其与欧洲其他国家贸易量的4倍，但现在油价更低。眼下，苏格兰的预算赤字很严重，并继续从威斯敏斯特方面获得大量补贴。

Mrs May says the Scottish nationalist party is playing political games. Yet the extreme version of Brexit that the Tory government appears intent upon has forced the Scots into terrible choices. They face leaving the EU despite voting to remain by a large margin — or upending relations with the rest of the UK, their biggest bilateral trading partner. They risk being hitched to an English Tory government that has scant support in more left-leaning, immigrant-friendly Scotland.

梅表示，苏格兰国民党(SNP)正在玩政治游戏。然而，保守党政府看来打算走极端的退欧路线，这迫使格兰人面临可怕的选择。他们要么离开欧盟，尽管苏格兰的留欧票数大幅领先于退欧票数，要么与联合王国其他地区——他们最大的双边贸易伙伴——脱离关系。他们面临跟英国保守党政府捆绑到一起的风险，这个政府对立场更偏左、对移民友好的苏格兰给予的支持非常小。

Ms Sturgeon is playing on these fears, arguing that the May government has failed to give Scotland any real input into the Brexit process.

斯特金正在利用这些恐惧。她辩称，梅的政府在退欧程序里没有给苏格兰任何真正的话语权。

Mrs May could deny Scotland a constitutionally binding referendum. She cannot, however, stop an advisory vote from taking place. If such a vote were won by the leavers, she could prevent it going into force only by inviting a crisis of democratic legitimacy.

梅可以拒绝授权苏格兰举行具有宪法约束力的公投。然而，她不能阻止咨询投票的发生。如果主张离开者赢得投票，她唯有引发一场民主合法性的危机，才能防止投票结果产生实效。

If Scotland were to vote to leave, it would be an immense gamble. It could not be assured of an invitation to join the EU, since countries worried about their own restive regions, such as Spain, would surely object. The border will be another vexed topic, as is the case today with Northern Ireland. The future of farm and fisheries policy — now in the hands of the EU — remains open too.

如果苏格兰投票离开，这将是一场巨大的赌博。苏格兰不能确定自己会被邀请加入欧盟，因为担心本国内不安定地区的国家（如西班牙）肯定会反对。边界将是另一个令人头疼的话题，正如今日北爱尔兰的情况。目前掌握在欧盟手中的农场和渔业政策，其未来也不确定。

The country of Adam Smith will no doubt favour open trade relations with the UK. The UK may feel differently if businesses shift operations north to remain in the EU’s single market. More important, the SNP has still not answered the questions that dogged it in 2014: what currency an independent Scotland would use, and how it would fund a generous welfare state.

诞生了亚当?斯密(Adam Smith)的苏格兰无疑将赞成与联合王国的开放贸易关系。如果各企业把业务向北转移，继续留在欧盟单一市场，联合王国或许会有不同的感觉。更重要的是，苏格兰国民党仍没有回答在2014年困扰它的问题：独立后的苏格兰将使用什么货币，以及它支撑一个慷慨的福利国家的资金来源是什么。

This moment in the history of the nation is doubly fraught because there are irresponsible voices in Mrs May’s party who would be content to see Scotland go. They dream of tightening the conservatives’ hold on Westminster and ending the flow of subsidies north.

在历史的这一刻，联合王国面临双重困扰，因为梅的保守党里有一些不负责任的声音，他们将乐意看到苏格兰离去。他们想要收紧保守党对威斯敏斯特的控制，不再向北方提供补贴。

Ms Sturgeon has proposed that the referendum goes ahead between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. At the early end, it could disrupt Brexit negotiations. A later date would give Scots an informed choice. It might also force Mrs May’s government to think harder about the risks of walking away with no deal. In an imperfect world, that is the least the public deserves.

斯特金提议在2018年秋季至2019年春季之间举行公投。如果时间靠前，公投可能会破坏英国退欧谈判。如果时间靠后，苏格兰将会在知道谈判结果的情况下作出选择。这也许会迫使梅政府更加认真地考虑尚未达成协议就退出的风险。在一个不完美的世界里，公众绝不应该承受这样的结果。